Viscose Staple Fiber Price Changes in 2021 Around the Spring Festival and Outlook for Post-Holiday Trends

Original Title: Viscose Staple Fiber Price Changes in 2021 Around the Spring Festival and Post-Holiday Trend Outlook

　　Introduction: On the eve of the Spring Festival, the viscose staple fiber did not stabilize due to the subsequent holidays.PresaleTherefore, the orders still carry over to the new offer in phases, and on the first day after the holidays,businessThe offers have also increased. Term 2Month 18Day, viscose staple fiberBase price14700, More than 2Month 10Daily Increase of 890, An increase of 6.36%According to the orders held by the manufacturer, it is expected that 3Viscose staple fiber before the end of the monthpriceIt will maintain strong momentum.

Since viscose staple fiber reached a record low in July 2020, the industry price has gradually increased.lengthThe decline since then caused manufacturers to climb slowly and cautiously during the recovery process. Until October, increased yarn orders led to the rapid growth of viscose staple fibers.cashThe flow eventually turned negative to positive, subsequently breaking prices from the same period in 2019 and 2018 in November, January, and February, respectively. As of February 18, 2021, Longzhong InformationStatisticsViscose staple fiber reference price is 14,880, a cumulative increase of 890 or 6.36% from February 10, 2021, 52.62% from the same period of 2020, 11.04% from the same period of 2019 and 1.57% from the same period of 2018, as shown in figure 1.

Figure 1

Table 1 Comparison table of prices of regenerated cellulose fibers industry before and after the Spring Festival

product	market/model	two10 of the month	twoMarch 18th	Ups and downs	Observations
Regenerated cellulose fiber (base price)	Viscose staple fiber for spinning	13990	14880	890	Acceptance to
	Nonwoven Viscose Staple Fiber	14200	15100	900	Cash delivery
	Black viscose staple fiber	14500	14650	150	Acceptance to
	The IPurcell(National excellent)	17000	17000	0	Cash withdrawal
	Modal (normal)	21000	21000	0	Acceptance to
Other fibers	cotton	15750	16100	350	Mention by weight
	Polyester staple fiber	6875	7140	265	Cash withdrawal
	Nylon Staple Fiber	13700	14000	300	Acceptance
	Acrylic staple fiber	16500	16500	0	Cash withdrawal
	40D spandex	45000	46000	1000	Cash withdrawal
Dissolve the pulp	Coniferous pulp outer discCFR	940	940	0	American dollar/Ton
	CFR hardwood pulp outer disc	920	920	0	USD / ton
	DomesticRMB	7000	7000	0	Acceptance to
32% alkali ion membrane	Shandong	400	400	0	Cash withdrawal
	Jiangsu	480	480	0	Cash withdrawal
	Hebei	520	520	0	Cash withdrawal
98% sulfuric acid	Hebei	200	200	0	Acceptance and delivery
	Shandong	220	240	twenty	Acceptance and delivery
	Jiangsu	370	370	0	Acceptance and delivery

　　The increase in the price of viscose staple fiber comes mainly from the support and bulk of the orders.ProductLink

The rise in viscose staple fibers after the holidays is not due to the fundamental changes in the Spring Festival holidays, but the industry has known from the early days that viscose staple fiber manufacturers will eventually surge after opening. holidays due to order hold. and the industry is targeting overall 2021macropoliticalOptimistic Expectations, International Crude Oil on HolidayfuturesThe continued increase created the daily limit for polyester staple fiber on the first day after the holidays, and cotton tooDrive high, Fiber products and raw materials increased more and more without falling (see Table 1), viscose staple fibers adjusted to the trend and also increased smoothly. From an industry fundamentals perspective during the Spring Festival, the actual inventory of viscose staple fibers increased due to the suspension of shipments during the Spring Festival, and the subsequent rayon yarn also decreased due to the central closure of the Festival. of spring. See Figure 2 and Figure 3 for more details.

Figure 2

As of February 18, the national viscose staple fiberfactoryThe physical inventory amounted to 135,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons since February 10. The increase in the physical inventory of the factory was mainly due to the stagnation of logistics during the Spring Festival. Logistics is gradually recovering since the seventh day of the year, and is pre-sold by the viscose staple fiber companies In terms of orders, the physical inventory of the industry is expected to remain relatively low at the end of March.

picture 3

As of February 18, the average business start-up rate in the major rayon yarn producing areas nationwide was 36%, an increase of 10 percentage points from before the holidays. As of February 19 (the eighth day of the day), a large number of spinning mills in Xiaoshan, Gaomi, Xinxiang, Wujiang and other places continue to operate centrally. It is anticipated that the overall operating rate of the rayon yarn industry can be restored to more than 50% tomorrow, and Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and other places still have some other placesemployeeThe average start-up level in the industry is actually higher than the same period in previous years to stay in the factory. However, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the Ching Ming May Day holiday will cause some city workers to leave the factory properly.

Table 2 Post-holiday start-up schedule for companies in the main production area

Urban area	Focus onWorking hoursBetween	twoAvailability on the 18th
Peixian	February 16-February 17	80%
high density	February 17-February 19	13%
Changle	February 14-February 16	52%
Xiaoshan	February 19-February 23	10%
Wujiang	February 19-February 20	18%
Xinxiang	February 19th	10%

However, before the holidays, the cotton yarn was delisted earlier, and the price of the viscose staple fiber yarn did not follow during the increase process. If the current price is calculated at 15,000 yuan per ton of raw materials, the labor cost of the cotton yarn is limited. Cotton yarn will see a significant increase at the opening. Today, some vortex, Siro and tight competitions also increased by 500-1000 yuan / ton.

　　1General optimism of the quarterly market

Currently, the rayon yarn industry is rebooting successfully and viscose staple fibers will be shipped immediately before the holidays. The factory’s physical inventory will still be transferred and the pulp to be dissolved before the end of April.transportThe relatively difficult situation also limits the factory’s pre-sales efforts. Therefore, the price of viscose staple fiber is expected to continue to increase. After the industry reference price reaches 15,000 yuan / ton, a new resistance level is recommended to be found.

(Article Source: Longzhong Information)

(Responsible editor: DF506)