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Original title: Decision Analysis: A Global Sensation! Voting for the US Elections has officially begun. This result is very likely to trigger turbulence in the market
FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) The news has finally arrived! For the global market on November 3, the biggest event is by far the 2020 US election. The White House will be announced soon in the next four years.
On Tuesday (November 3) Asian trading hours, Asian stocks were up as a whole, while European equity futures continued their bullish trend. US stocks are also trading in an ascending range. Investors await the results of the general election vote.
In the currency market, the US dollar came under slight pressure and fell below the 94 mark. Non-US currencies rose and fell in a mixed fashion.Australian dollarIt continues to maintain a downward trend.
The Reserve Bank of Australia cut 15 basis points to 0.1% on schedule, saying it will not increase interest rates until inflation stabilizes at 2-3%, and is not expected to increase interest rates. interest within three years; the 3-year Treasury yield target is lowered 15 basis points to 0.1%.
The Reserve Bank of Australia also stated that it will implement a new round of the QE plan, planned for 100 billion Australian dollars, and is ready to buy any number of bonds to reach the 3-year target. The bond purchase focus will be on 5-10 year bonds. Reserve Bank of Australia President Lowe said the Reserve Bank of Australia may increase bond purchases.
In terms of commodities, spot gold maintains a narrow range oscillation pattern, current trading volume is around US $ 1,890, while silver is also under pressure to fluctuate around US $ 24.
Looking at this trading day, the market’s biggest concern is undoubtedly Election Day in the United States. For most of 2020, the new corona pandemic may distract the world’s attention, but today’s American election will remain a global sensation.
November 3 is the official day of the elections. Based on time differences, polling stations in various states in the United States will be closed from 6 pm to 1 am Eastern Time (7 am to 2 pm Beijing Time 4). In the early morning of the 3rd US Eastern Time, some voters in the northeastern state of New Hampshire took the initiative to vote at the electoral college. Voting officially began on the day of the 2020 U.S. General Election.
According to data from the US Election Project, the day before Election Day, more than 94 million votes were cast in the US, which exceeded or approached the 2016 total level.
Democratic candidate Biden leads Trump in national polls, but the two are competing fiercely in several key states. People worry the outcome may be uncertain Tuesday night, because the vote count may take days.
Analysts said the most likely outcome of stock market volatility in the near term is that there is no clear winner on Tuesday night.
Analysts said the uncertain outlook for the US presidential election was the main factor dragging the market. Trump is behind Biden in national polls, but the changing state polls that may determine the outcome of the election show they are even.
“The key factors affecting the stock market in the short term are concerns about the uncertainty and timing of the election results and the possibility of controversial results,” said Marc Chaikin, founder of Chaikin Analytics, a quantitative research firm. investment company.
In the next 24-36 hours, almost anything will happen, and market participants will be very concerned about export surveys and reports / rumors about local conditions, especially in the six key states.
Erik Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo Bank, said: “The hedging actions we saw last week are quite extensive and I think it makes sense; After what happened four years ago, people will naturally hold any kind of prediction about the general election. Skeptical. The closer the elections are, the more likely it is that the results will be postponed or controversial. This is a perfect storm of falling risky assets. “
Intraday approach and weather vane:
23:00 Monthly rate for US factory orders in September
To be determined on Election Day in the United States 2020
The Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed for a day
Analysis of the main currencies:
EUR: The euro / dollar tried to stabilize after falling for 6 consecutive days, and is currently trading near 1.1660. From a technical perspective, the MACD daily green kinetic energy column gradually expanded, the RSI indicator remained stable and slightly above the oversold level, and the KDJ indicator touched the oversold level down, indicating that the price dropped or slowed down. Initial short-term support is at 1.1620 and initial resistance is at 1.1680.
GBPGBP / USD tried to stabilize in the days after bottoming out yesterday and is currently trading around 1.2930. Technically, the daily MACD green kinetic energy column began to gradually expand, the RSI indicator held around the 50 level, and the KDJ indicator began to slow, suggesting that the price is expected to stabilize. Initial short-term support is at 1.2880 and initial resistance can be seen at 1.2950.
Yen: The dollar / yen began to fall under pressure after rising for three consecutive days, and the current price is around 104.60. Technically, the MACD green kinetic energy column on the daily chart gradually weakened, the RSI indicator remained stable below the 50 level and the KDJ indicator rebounded from the oversold level, the price is expected to consolidate. Initial short-term support is at 104.20 and initial resistance is at 104.90.
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