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Children at a social distancing campaign rally in Delaware.
On the night of voting day in the U.S. General Election, he was in front of the television for 10 straight hours while constantly updating his social media page. However, President Trump (Donald Trump) and former Vice President Joe Biden (Joe Biden) were unwilling to admit defeat, and then America’s nightmare began: a dissenting election.
The vote counting began again and the invalid ballots also triggered lawsuits and civil unrest began to spread throughout the country. An appeal paper will be sent to the US Supreme Court shortly, where the court will decide who owns the presidency.
However, many of the above scenarios can be avoided as long as Americans are willing to wait for the results. But how long do you wait? This is a crucial and difficult question to answer.
What can block the counting process?
In the 2016 U.S. elections, 33 million Americans voted by mail. This year, due to the global pandemic of the new coronavirus, 82 million people applied to vote by mail. However, with just one day remaining until elections, many states are still struggling to repeal some decades-old laws about when a mailed ballot can be opened, inspected and counted.
For example, in Michigan, a key state in transition, an estimated 3 million people will submit their ballots; But because they cannot count the ballots delivered until 7am on Election Day, Michigan can take three. Results can only be announced in a few days, and this still assumes that there is no need to recount the votes.
Due to the new corona virus epidemic and the presidential elections, mail delivery services are now behind schedule. President Trump also blocked emergency funding for the United States Postal Service after declaring that voting by mail could be detrimental to his campaign. Polls and previous voting data show that Democrats are more likely to vote by mail than Republicans, and Republicans are more likely to vote in person on Election Day.
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In Maryland, the first state in the US to begin verifying mailed ballots, accountants working in a bipartisan party monitor mailed ballots.
The second issue is legal procedures.
When the number of votes is too close to reach a result, many people worry that states will face legal questions about which votes are invalidated, further delaying election results.
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In Oregon, a postal worker unloaded thousands of boxes full of ballots.
The most common reason for a ballot to be classified as invalid is that the postal ballot arrived too late to be counted. Other reasons include invalid signatures or missing a second confidential envelope, etc.
As the number of ballots delivered by mail in this election is higher than in previous elections, it is expected that ballots that are late and may be classified as invalid will also increase significantly.
In the 2016 election, President Trump won by less than 11,000 votes in Michigan.
This is a small gap, especially if you think about it, in Michigan’s August primary (that is, when voters choose candidates from various parties to run in the general election), more than 10,000 votes were invalidated. The main reason is they were too late to be counted.
If on the night of the general election the votes are too close for an immediate result, invalid votes in many swing states can become another point of contention.
Could it have turned out on election night?
Some. Although mail delivery may be delayed, judging by current polls, it is still possible to determine the winner in numbers that night. However, for any candidate, this must be an overwhelming victory.
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Biden at a social distancing campaign rally in Michigan.
To win the golden key to the White House, whether it be Joe Biden or Donald Trump, you must overcome the 270 electoral vote line.
This is because the president is not elected directly by the votes of the voters, but by the so-called electoral college (electoral college).
The number of electoral votes allocated to each state is roughly based on the size of the state’s population, so whoever the people of each state vote for, the electoral vote of this state will vote, which is equivalent to important things.
As of the day before the election, 69.5 million Americans had already mailed or cast their votes in person. Such a dramatic increase in the number of early voting means that the number of votes cast so far has exceeded half of the total votes counted at the end of the 2016 general election.
In 2016, Donald Trump celebrated his victory in the general election at 2:30 EST (7:30 GMT), when the Wisconsin result sent him crossing the finish line of 270 electoral votes. However, due to the dramatic increase in mailed votes, it is unlikely that many controversial battlefield states (those in which the two candidates are tied) will announce the results that night.
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are important swing states, and you need to start checking and counting ballots sent in the mail on Election Day. If the votes are too close for an immediate result, they are all states that are likely to face major issues such as recount and legal procedures.
However, Florida is promising.
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Trump drew a large crowd at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.
As the largest battlefield state, with 29 electoral votes, this changing state will be a weather vane, indicating whether one of the candidates has a chance to declare victory that night.
Florida began reviewing and verifying mailed ballots nearly 40 days before the election. So far, the state that has returned 2.4 million mail-in ballots has a large stack of envelopes to open one by one, but they are more likely to announce the outcome on election night than most other swing states.
If Biden, who currently leads the polls, loses Florida, it will be a sign that he is less likely to declare victory on election night. It is still possible for him to cross 270 electoral votes by winning the states of North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio, but if Biden is to declare victory on Election Day, all routes of least resistance will be Win Florida First.
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Democratic presidential candidate Biden was interviewed by the media in North Carolina.
Trump is currently behind in the polls. Even if the current president wins Florida, it will be difficult to declare victory that night, because there are too many undecided states that are unlikely to get an immediate result.
Of course, unless the polls are wrong.
As history in recent years has shown, including the 2016 US elections, the polls may have misjudged the situation.
Will there be an American television station announcing the results that night?
The influence of the American media on election night is staggering.
In past elections, major US television stations “announced” the results before the ballots were clicked. Large television stations cooperate with voting (or export) companies that visit voters at polling stations or remotely, and strive to be the first to announce the winners of the competition.
Once “announced” by the media, the “lost” match is expected to give up quickly, preferably before everyone goes to bed, so that the winner can announce his victory in advance on the same TV channel that night. .
This is a great way to make TV news more dramatic, but in 2020, with millions of votes sent by mail waiting to be counted, the patience and rigor of the American media that night is very important.
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George W. Bush won the 2000 presidential election and this was his victory in Florida.
Many people worry that the chaos that occurred between George W Bush (George W Bush) and Al Gore (Al Gore) in 2000 will reappear this year.
On election night twenty years ago, although many polls claimed that the vote was close and it was difficult to get a result, several television stations first gave Gore, the key state of the change, to Gore, and then to Bush. Jr. Gore later admitted that he was defeated, but as new news showed that the Florida campaign was closer than originally expected, Al Gore withdrew his claim of defeat. After 36 days and a Supreme Court ruling, the United States learned that Gore won the majority in absolute votes in the country, but Bush Jr. won the majority of the electoral votes and was elected president.
In 2020, the United States has been paralyzed by the new coronavirus epidemic, and is polarized on the topic of “Black Lives Matter (Black Lives Matter)”; And now, Americans will likely have to be their next president. Whose question wait some time.
