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Original title: Tsinghua Report: The “southward migration” of China’s economic population has lasted 1,500 years. The GDP of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen accounts for 12.5% of the country’s population and only 5.2%
On the afternoon of December 27, at the Tsinghua University China and World Economic Forum, a copy of the report issued by the China Institute of Economic Thought and Practice and the Tsinghua University China and World Economic Research Center .reportIt is noted that in the past 1,500 years, the geographical distribution of China’s population has undergone major and profound changes. Beginning with the Wei, Jin, South and North dynasties, with the continuous “southward shift” of productivity distribution, the population distribution has also changed from “north to south”. The “light” gradually moved to the geographic pattern of “southern emphasis on northern light.”
The report believes that the current overlap of China’s population geographic distribution and productivity design is still lagging behind. Take Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the four places.GDPIt represents 12.5% of the country, while the population only represents 5.2% of the country. From the perspective of GDP and the population share in the country’s 10 and 20 cities, the population share in the backward economy has reached 11 and 16 percentage points, respectively, and the relocation of economic geography will be a new point of departure. growth for China’s medium and long-term economic development.
The “southern migration” of China’s economic population has continued for 1,500 years
In the aforementioned forum, ACCEPT researcher Lu Lin from Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management pointed out in her report that, from the long-term perspective of history, the change in the geographical distribution of population is an unavoidable requirement for the historical process of productivity development, and this development process is irreversible.
He pointed out that the economic development of ancient China was based on agriculture. With climate change and changes in agricultural production technology, the geographical distribution of the ancient population showed a trend of change from “the north was more important to the south” to “the south was more important to the north”. Since modern times , withindustryHarmonizationUrbanizationThe acceleration of this historical process has never stopped.
According to the report, from the Wei, Jin, Southern and Northern dynasties, along with the southern Yangtze RiverlandDevelopment, repair of water conservancy facilities and maturity of rice planting technology have led to rapid economic development in the area south of the Yangtze River. The economic center of the country has gradually shifted from the Yellow River basin to the area south of the Yangtze River. This process of “southward migration” of this economic center began in the Wei, Jin, southern and northern dynasties, continued to develop in the Sui and Tang dynasties, began to settle after the Mid-Tang dynasty and was finally completed. in the Song dynasty. Consequently, the Yangtze River Delta and Huguang regions have become the most densely populated areas.
The report believes that in modern times, this southward migration trend continues and has accelerated after reform and opening up. This is because the “growth miracle” of more than 40 years of reform and opening up has a more severe impact on the geographical distribution of China’s population.
From the perspective of productivity development, according to the historical GDP of the University of Oxford-Tsinghua-Pekingdatabase, Calculated in absolute value (1840 = 100), during the 860 years from 980 to 1840, the average annual growth rate was approximately 0.24%, and the total economic volume increased 7.93 times in 860 (triple is 8 times). In the more than 40 years since the reform and opening-up, according to the WDI database, China’s economy has grown 39.29 times, which is equivalent to more than five times.
From the perspective of the change in the pattern of geographical distribution of the population, the current Chinese society has surpassed the oldtraffic, Language, information,cultureLegal restrictions, therefore, the population movement has a greater geographic space and kinetic energy compared to 1,500 years of history.
Lu Lin pointed out,Since 2010, the geographical distribution of China’s population has shown the following trends:
First, the population has shifted from being concentrated in large central cities to being concentrated in regional groups of central cities, especially in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Chengdu-Chongqing regions;
Second, the interregional urban-rural dual flow began to transform into the urban-rural regional dual flow, especially in the eastern region.
This type of change in trend means that the geographical distribution of the population increases with productivity,industryThe inevitable development of conglomerates and urban agglomerations is also theworkelementmarketThe manifestation of the effectiveness of the reform.
The degree of coincidence of population distribution and productivity design is still lagging
The report believes that, based on the current degree of correspondence between the geographical distribution of the population and the distribution of productivity, the change in the geographical distribution of the population is relatively lagged,workforceThe growth potential that mobility can generate remains enormous.
Taking Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen as an example, the GDP of the four regions accounted for 12.5% of the country’s GDP, while the population only accounted for 5.2% of the country. From the perspective of GDP and the population of the country’s 10 cities and 20 cities, the proportion of the population of the backward economy has reached 11 and 16 percentage points. Taking the 10 provinces and cities with a per capita per capita of more than 70,000 as an example in 2019, the GDP represented 54.5% of the country’s GDP, while the population was only 38.1% of the country.
The report emphasizes,The reorganization of economic geography will be a new growth point for China’s medium and long-term economic development.
This is because, in the first place, the relocation of economic geography is the relocation of population and labor.Labor productivityThe flow of regions from regions to regions with high labor productivity will increase marginal production of labor, achieve an optimized mix of labor resources and other factors of production, and improve the efficiency of production at the macro level.
Second, the redesign of economic geography will be driven by population mobility, promoting a series of new infrastructure constructionsUrban ConstructionTo increaseInvestment in fixed assetsLevel, creating new objective demands.
Third, through the redesign of economic geography, the Matthew effect and the agglomeration effect of the development of urban agglomerations will come into play, promote further expansion of the economic scale, and boost the Chinese economy.Increase。
The engine of the relocation of economic geography comes, first of all, from the spontaneous flow of population. The labor force, especially the young workforce, is willing to move tosalaryUpper level areajobs, Life, this type of job transfer will prompt their families to move to these higher income areas. However,At present, the transfer of young labor in our country is still not enough. Their family transfer and the choice of the place of life of the middle and upper income groups are affected by the household registration.Social SecurityThe spontaneous population flow has not been fully exploited due to restrictions in other respects.
In addition to the mobility of the population,Capital has an inherent tendency to flow into areas with the highest rate of return, and these areas are often densely populated and economically developing areas, constituting the second driving force for the relocation of economic geography.
Unbalanced development in many places
The report noted that, at present, most of China’s regions are experiencing uneven development and the potential for economic growth has not been fully unleashed.
Take as examples the four provinces of Henan, Shandong, Anhui and Jiangsu in the eastern and central parts of China. Although these four provinces rank high in China’s provincial GDP ranking in 2019, there are obvious regional differences between the provinces.Income gapIncome levels of some areas such as southern Henan, southwest Shandong, northern Anhui and northern Jiangsu are significantly lower than in other areas in and around the province.
Lu Lin believes that the economyLevel of developmentGap factors include geographic conditions (mainly flat terrain), population conditions (high population density), resource endowment (all kinds of resources are relatively poor), traffic conditions (infrastructure flaws transportation) and cultural differences (belonging to different dialects). District) and so on.
Calculation report,If the GDP per capita of the aforementioned underdeveloped regions in 2019 increases to the average level of other regions in the province, it may increase the GDP per capita of Henan Province by 24.5%, Shandong Province by 12 , 5%, Anhui Province by 36.3%, Jiangsu Province Provincial GDP per capita increased 23.7%.If the income gap between the four provinces and regions can be leveled within 10 years, the annual growth rate of GDP per capita of China’s economy will increase by 0.6%.
Other calculations show that, assuming that the population structure remains virtually unchanged, if economic and geographic redistribution can be achieved in 15 years (three “five-year plans”), the per capita GDP of the provinces can be increased by China’s highest and lowest per capita income. Reducing the current income gap in the United States from 2.6 (excluding municipalities) to 1.57 will increase the annual growth rate of GDP per capita of the Chinese economy by 0.9%. The report believes that this is an important new growth point for China’s medium and long-term economic development.
(Source: 21st Century Business Herald)
(Responsible editor: DF537)
I solemnly declare: The purpose of this information is to spread more information, and it has nothing to do with this booth.
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