Too much information! Zhou Xiaochuan and Lou Jiwei speak out: China has come to study the withdrawal of monetary policy_ 东方 Fortune.com

Original title: Too much information! Zhou Xiaochuan and Lou Jiwei made a great voice: global monetary policy is overflowing, and China has come to study the withdrawal of monetary policy …

Summary

[¡Demasiada información! Zhou Xiaochuan y Lou Jiwei hicieron fuertes voces: China ha venido a estudiar el retiro de la política monetaria]On November 13, at the “XI Caixin Summit: Rebuilding Global Confidence”, President of the China Institute of Finance and former President of the People’s Bank of China Zhou Xiaochuan, Director of the Foreign Relations Committee of the National Conference Committee Chinese People’s Political Consultative and former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei, Deputy Director of the Economic Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, Deputy Director of the China Development Research Foundation, and former Deputy Director of the Research Center for the Development of the State Council Liu Shijin and other great figures attended the event. How the economy recovers and how China will respond to issues such as expressing its own opinions. (China Corridor)

On November 13, at the “11th Caixin Summit: Rebuilding Global Confidence”, the President of the China Financial Association and the Chinese peopleBankFormer President Zhou Xiaochuan, CPPCC Foreign RelationsCommitteeDirector, Former Minister of the Ministry of Finance Lou Jiwei, Deputy Director of the CPPCC Economic Committee, China Development ResearchbackgroundThe meeting’s vice chairman, Liu Shijin, former deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center and other large cafes attended the meeting to express their views on issues such as how the global economy will recover and how China will respond.

　　Zhou Xiaochuan: The world urgently needs to improve the multilateral mechanism

Zhou Xiaochuan said that since the establishment of the G20 summit, countries have taken some actions to improve multilateral mechanisms. In economics and finance, there areMonetary FundOrganization (IMF), worldBankIn terms of central bank coordination, there isInternational settlementBank(TO),Anti money launderingThere are special financial actions against money launderingjobsGroup (FATF). In terms of trade, there is the World Trade Organization (WTO). In terms of open institutions, there are regional development banks. Furthermore, some United Nations agencies, such as the United Nations Development Program, have also played a role to some extent, but all seem inadequate and far from everyone’s expectations.

“These institutions involve different professions, but they involve global coordination, especially an important part of crisis response. How to coordinatecoinFiscal policies and policies, while improving supervision and promoting fair competition, while at the same time mobilizing effective resources, especially financial resources, to deal with the crisis and help the crisis, especially damages, should be considered very inadequate in this regard. . Zhou Xiaochuan said.

Zhou Xiaochuan pointed out that the advancement of globalization has brought some changes that cannot be ignored, these changes should receive great attention, the most important changes are the indirect effects of monetary and fiscal policies. So far, global inflation has been highly convergent. Monetary policy in the United States has repeatedly emphasized the spill-over effect. This spillover effect is obvious and can lead to abnormal capital flows. From a technical point of view, the transmission of fiscal and monetary policy has also been problematic, and has also exposed some flaws, there is no reasonable coordination consensus, and the negative effects of the spill can be controlled within a limited range.

Zhou Xiaochuan believes that we should advocate for problem-oriented resolution and consensus-seeking from easy to difficult. In this regard, we must first do research work, bold exploration and innovation.

　　In terms of monetary policy, we must first consider the impact of the contagion effects of monetary policy.SupplyThe structure of the currency is considered. For abnormal capital flows, it is necessary to find ways to establish some preliminary coordination mechanisms, especially a global mechanism that can coordinate liquidity arrangements, and at the same time consider creating liquidity to solve global problems.

In terms of fiscal policy, the issue of digital taxes must be resolved. Digital taxes are currently at a standstill, especially between France and the United States. One reason is that the development of the digital economy has run into great difficulties, many of which are very difficult to define. Another reason is that these institutions should pay taxes, but because there is a competition mechanism for tax revenues, it is also a question of who the institutions pay taxes. It should be envisaged that a functional multilateral organization will play an intermediate role, so that disputes can be significantly reduced.

Furthermore, Zhou Xiaochuan also proposed that multilateralism should also improve the carbon neutrality issue. Each country should take on its own task and make great efforts within its own country to achieve carbon neutrality.

　　Lou Jiwei: China should now consider orderly withdrawal of monetary policy

The global economic recovery faces many challenges, but how will China respond to the current domestic and international situation? In this regard, Lou Jiwei said that China’s fiscal and monetary policies will continue to expand in the next step.

Lou Jiwei pointed out that the current world economy and trade face enormous uncertainties, which are mainly reflected in four aspects: First, the spread of the new corona epidemic can be repeated, and it can last until the end of next year before the world can control the epidemic; second, reverse The trend towards globalization and trade frictions have not stopped, which has brought downward pressure on the world economy and trade; third, the trend of populism has spread worldwide and has been politicized to varying degrees in some countries; Fourth, the debt cycle and the business cycle are misaligned. With the accumulation of previous debt cycles, crises and recovery from recession correspond to prosperity, recession, pause, and recovery.

Lou Jiwei said that in the future, China’s fiscal and monetary policies will continue to expand. What is more difficult is the high debt ratio. The space for fiscal and monetary policies is shrinking. The intensity of the expansion should be harnessed and used more to protect Livelihood insurance for peopleSMEs, But also to preventcompanyAnd the leverage rate for residents is too high. The financial business should continue to reduce leverage, this year we can see that the macro leverage ratio is increasing. Therefore, it is important that what needs to be reduced is reduced, especially the leverage of the financial business itself. The current cycle of global debt and the business cycle are misaligned. The accumulation of debt and the economy are far from recovering.priceBut in the high position. “Said Lou Jiwei.

Also, speaking about the decline in monetary and fiscal policies, Lou Jiwei said that from a global perspective, China was the first to control the epidemic and the economic recovery was also in the forefront. It is time for China to study the orderly exit from loose monetary policy. Lou Jiwei stressed that he only said that it was time to study the orderly withdrawal of monetary policy, not that he would withdraw now.

　　The current global debt cycle and business cycle are misaligned, debt is piling up, the economy is far from recovering, and asset prices are at high levels. Once the economy recovers, excess liquidity needs to be recovered and there is also the risk of debt collapse. Therefore, the pace of withdrawal must be mastered, and economic recovery cannot coincide with the debt crisis.

　　Liu Shijin: The new infrastructure is not suitable as a tool for the government’s short-term stimulus policy

“New infrastructure” has become a hot vocabulary in the investment arena this year. In the context of ongoing efforts to accelerate, how should the government view policies for new infrastructure? In this regard, Liu Shijin pointed out that the new infrastructure is not suitable as a tool for the government’s short-term stimulus policy.

Liu Shijin pointed out that there are three differences between new infrastructure and traditional infrastructure: In nature, traditional infrastructure is basically operated directly by the government.Public goodsOr quasi-public goods, and the new infrastructure hasPlatform economyCharacteristic technology orproduct, Usually byBusiness investmentThe operation can be understood as theProduct. In terms of return on investment, the new infrastructure has a lower “flexibility tolerance” compared to previously invested projects with low operational efficiencies and is therefore not suitable for the government to dominate.

　　More importantly, the new infrastructure is essentially a new product backed by new technology. Many of these products are still immature and in a growth period, they have very large uncertainties, so they are more suitable for venture capital.

Liu Shijin believes that the current government shouldmarketCreate order and be more openPublic sectorTo protect the privacy of information. We must also pay attention to the shortcomings of basic research in digital technology. “I likeartificial intelligenceSome of the algorithm platforms are basically those ofthe companyfrom. The country is also developing now, but it is still relatively small. Liu Shijin said.

(Article source:BrokerageChina)

(Responsible editor: DF150)