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Original title: Today’s point of view: “Troika” is making concerted efforts, China’s economic recovery is strong
Tranquility
In 2021, China’s strong economic recovery will continue to be a source of confidence and an anchor of stability for the world economy.
On January 5, the World Bank predicted in the latest issue of Global Economic Outlook that world GDP will grow 4% in 2021. However, China’s economic recovery is stronger and is expected to achieve a growth rate of 7%. , 9%, 1 percentage point more than the forecast in June of last year. Earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also predicted in the “World Economic Outlook Report” that the growth rate of China’s economic recovery in 2021 is expected to reach 8.2%.
The author believes that the high expectations of authoritative international organizations for China’s economic growth stem from the strong resilience and vigor of the Chinese economy. “Resilience” is the basis for the stable recovery of China’s economy, and “vitality” is the driving force behind China’s economic growth. Although “resilience” and “vitality” are relatively abstract, the connotations of these two words are fully demonstrated by the “troika” that drives the economy – China’s investment, consumption and exports, and that is precisely what sustains the economy. China. Ever-growing passwords.
First, investment growth has continued and manufacturing investment has become a new bright spot.
In 2020, under the influence of the new corona pneumonia epidemic, China’s investment fell dramatically in the first quarter. However, as the epidemic has been effectively controlled and a series of investment stabilization policies have been implemented one after another, China’s investment has gradually returned to a stable trend and the growth rate has continued to rebound, continuing the 2019 growth trend.
According to data from the National Statistics Office, from January to November last year, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased 2.6% year-on-year and the growth rate was 0.8 percentage points faster than the from January to October. Investment in three main areas continued to improve: infrastructure investment growth accelerated, manufacturing investment declines further slowed, and real estate development investment increased steadily. In addition, in the high-tech manufacturing industry, investment in the pharmaceutical, computer and office equipment manufacturing industries increased by 27.3% and 20.4% respectively; In the high-tech service industry, investment in the e-commerce service industry and the transformation of scientific and technological achievements increased by 32.2% and 17.5 respectively. %, total investment in high-tech industries maintained rapid growth.
The author believes that in 2021, the annual growth rate of investment in fixed assets will still have a lot of room for growth. On the one hand, the “XIV Five-Year Plan” proposes that the proportion of the manufacturing industry should be basically stable and the base of the real economy should be consolidated. Investment in manufacturing will continue to grow rapidly; On the other hand, the gradual implementation of new infrastructure policies will further promote overall investment growth.
Second, support for consumption is motivated and new types of consumption are responsible. Consumption is an important engine supporting the sustained and healthy development of China’s economy. In 2021, consumption promotion policies will continue to promote quality and improved consumption.
At the beginning of the new year, the Ministry of Commerce and 12 other departments jointly issued the “Notice on Various Measures to Boost Key Consumption and Promote the Unleashing of Rural Consumption Potential”, which presented five important measures to promote consumption and establish a new path for consumption growth in 2021. Good head.
Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of Statistics, also said in a recent interview that this year will focus on new consumptions, construction of regional consumption centers, rural consumption, consumer supply and other directions, and will launch specific measures. For example, in terms of harnessing the potential of emerging consumption, the “Implementation plan to accelerate the cultivation of new types of consumption” will be formulated.
The author believes that in 2021, China’s consumption will continue to grow and will remain a strong driving force for China’s economic growth.
Third, the export growth rate is high, which has enough momentum to drive economic growth. In 2020, China’s foreign trade imports and exports emerged from a beautiful growth line. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, in 2020, China’s total foreign trade imports and exports and international market share reached record levels, stabilizing foreign trade entities, industrial chain supply chains, and market shares. international market, and also stabilizing basic foreign trade and foreign investment. According to the latest statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, China’s total import and export volume is expected to reach about 32 trillion yuan in 2020, an increase of 30% over 2015.
In 2021, China’s role as a central country in the supply chain of the global industrial chain will be further highlighted.
From this point of view, the “troika” in 2021 is still full of momentum. While it fuels the steady growth of China’s economy, it will also inject confidence and momentum into the recovery of the world economy.
