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On December 31, 2020, the British “Brexit” transition period will end. Britain and the EU are working hard to reach a trade deal that will prevent the UK’s five-year “Brexit” from ending in chaos.
According to Reuters, Barnier, the European Union’s top negotiator, spoke again with Frost, the main negotiator for Britain’s “Brexit” negotiations on November 27. That day he said on Twitter that there are still “big differences” between the two parties. Frost later wrote: “Time is running out, but an agreement can still be reached. I will continue to negotiate until it is clear that no agreement can be reached.” Negotiations between Britain and Europe have stalled. Can the two sides resolve the deadlock in the last month? Trying to avoid the “Brexit” no-deal, it aroused the attention of the international community.
The divide between Britain and Europe is hard to bridge
Negotiations on future relations between the United Kingdom and Europe focused on a trade agreement have been repeatedly extended, and the two sides have tried to reach an agreement to work out the rules that will follow bilateral trade on an annual scale of almost 1 trillion. dollars after the transition period ends. The UK initially set the goal of reaching a framework agreement in June and then set mid-October as the deadline for negotiations. Negotiations between the two sides resumed on October 22, but information was rarely released to the outside world. At present, there are no signs of progress in the three main areas of fisheries, level playing field and contract performance management.
“The issue of fishing involves the fishing rights of EU fishermen in UK waters. The contradictions between the two sides are mainly centered on the access and quotas of EU fishing vessels in UK waters. United Kingdom”. Dong Yifan, an academic at the Institute of European Studies of the Institute of Modern International Relations in China, analyzed in an interview with our reporter, British “Brexit” has a greater impact on fishermen in North Sea countries such as France and Belgium. From a UK perspective, although the fishing industry only contributed 0.03% of UK economic output in 2019, it implies the British government’s political commitment to protecting the interests of fishermen, and many Brexiters do so. consider a renewed UK after Brexit. A symbol of sovereignty; From the perspective of the European Union, the interests of fishermen in France and other countries also affect their internal politics. So when it comes to fishing, both the UK and the EU are tough.
On a level playing field, Dong Yifan noted that the EU believes that if the UK wants to enter the EU single market with a population of over 400 million people, it must abide by EU rules. Otherwise, UK companies can gain a competitive advantage under their own lower regulatory restrictions and higher national subsidies. This will affect fair competition between British and European companies. But for the United Kingdom, the formulation of its own regulatory policies is one of its main demands for “Brexit”, and affects British sovereignty. Therefore, the two sides are stagnant.
Regarding the dispute resolution mechanism between domains, Dong Yifan pointed out that the dispute resolution mechanism mainly involves the issues of the applicable laws of the United Kingdom and the European Union. When a trade and investment dispute arises, which arbitration institution in the UK and Europe will arbitrate? It is about the economic and commercial interests, sovereignty and judicial independence of both parties. This is the most complicated and acute subject of the negotiation.
According to previous reports, if the UK and Europe fail to reach a trade deal during the transition period, the two sides will revert to the World Trade Organization (WTO) framework to re-implement border inspections and tariffs, and business costs will increase. In an interview with this reporter, Wang Yiwei, “Jean Monnet” European Professor and Director of the Center for European Studies at Renmin University of China, noted: “If Britain and Europe develop trade cooperation within the framework of the legal mechanism of the WTO, they will confront trade in services and intellectual property rights Some issues such as imperfect laws It is difficult for Britain and Europe to agree on the application of legal standards between the two parties, which also affects the progress of the negotiations “.
Controversies within the EU
According to the “Irish Times” report, as the UK’s “Brexit” trade negotiations entered the final stage, various EU member states began to compete fiercely for “Brexit” compensation worth € 5 billion. In July this year, the European Council proposed setting aside a special fund of € 5 billion in the EU budget to help member states and related industries cope with the potential shocks that the transition period of the EU may experience. UK “Brexit”. The European Commission is preparing to draft a plan to regulate how funds will be allocated and what criteria will be used to calculate the impact of British “Brexit” on countries. In this context, EU member states vigorously lobbied the European Commission for the final plan to lean in a direction that was beneficial to them.
“The distribution of tax subsidies has always been the focus of controversy among the 27 EU countries. The EU countries have not reached an agreement on the rules and standards for the allocation of a special fund of 5 billion euros “. Analysis of Dong Yifan, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and other countries with close trade with the United Kingdom The losses caused by the British “Brexit” in their own countries are believed to be large, so they should be compensated. Central and Eastern European member states believe that due to their weak economic strength, their ability to withstand the losses caused by the UK’s “Brexit” is relatively poor and should get more subsidies. Today, “old Europe” countries such as France, the Netherlands and Spain still have a greater say and are more influential in the distribution of “Brexit” compensation.
“Due to differences in interests and positions, differences in special funds within the EU reflect contradictions in the allocation of financial resources between EU member states, and also expose the fragility of unity within the EU. Under the impact of the epidemic, European countries Downward pressure on the economy is enormous and there is an urgent need to increase financial investment to revitalize the economy. Therefore, the fight for a special fund is more urgent, but the European Parliament is difficult to balance the rights of all parties Disagreements within the EU have also affected the process of the UK’s ‘Brexit’ negotiations. Analysis by Wang Yiwei.
According to the British “Guardian”, the president of the European Commission, Von der Lein, said in a speech before the European Parliament that the European Union is ready to use its “creativity” to reach an agreement with the United Kingdom. But he acknowledged that, with time constraints, the prospect of the deal is unclear. EU leaders are scheduled to meet on December 10 and the European Parliament is scheduled to convene a special meeting on December 28 to approve the deal. However, any agreement should be finalized within the next few days to allow time for legal review and translation.
The prospect of negotiations is not bright
Reuters reported that the “deadline” saw “numerous advances” due to a deadlock in negotiations. A diplomat also said in an interview with Reuters that the prospects for the current negotiations “are not bright.”
Dong Yifan believes that, in the context of the current epidemic and economic recession, if the UK does not have a “Brexit” deal, the economies of both Britain and Europe will be even worse. The two sides can seek a technical solution and reach a temporary agreement to avoid UK “Brexit” without a deal on January 1, 2021.
According to Bloomberg News, British Prime Minister Johnson stated in a television interview that the UK’s “Brexit” deal will depend on the European Union. Even if a trade deal cannot be reached, the UK can still maintain “great prosperity”. The United Kingdom is committed to entering into independent trade agreements with other countries. So far, the UK has reached the first major free trade agreement with Japan after Brexit. Free trade agreements are being negotiated with the United States, Australia and New Zealand, and they plan to start free trade negotiations with Canada next year.
According to estimates by the Office of Budgetary Responsibility, the UK’s GDP will decline by 11.3% in 2020, the country’s biggest economic recession in 300 years; the budget deficit will reach 394 billion pounds, which represents 19% of GDP, the highest since World War II. At the same time, the UK Office for Budgetary Responsibility also reduced UK GDP growth in 2021 from 8.7% to 5.5%. Some agencies predict that next year, the unemployment rate in the UK may reach 7.5%.
“The possibility of a no-deal ‘Brexit’ from Britain still exists, and both Britain and Europe are preparing for both sides. Generally speaking, no deal ‘Brexit’ is more damaging to Britain,” Wang Yiwei said. , there is no “Brexit” agreement. Later, the direct use of WTO regulations by Great Britain and Europe will lead to further confusion in the UK’s economic and commercial fields, especially with regard to customs and regulatory issues. Coupled with the severe impact of the epidemic in the UK, the UK fears more of the economic shock caused by a no-deal “Brexit.” But whether the final “Brexit” deal can be reached depends on whether the British Parliament can pass the bills related to the “Brexit” deal. (Reporter Gao Qiao)
“People’s Daily Overseas Edition” (10th edition on December 1, 2020)
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