[ad_1]
Original caption: The response to the epidemic has become a tipping point and Australia reports that the gap between the United States and China is narrowing more rapidly.
[环球时报记者 王未来 青木 张旺 王伟 陈欣]”Outside of war, the transfer of power is slow, but the epidemic has changed everything.” The Australian think tank Roy Institute for International Policy published the 2020 “Asian Power Index” report on the 19th. This sentence was written in the preface. The report’s biggest finding is that while the United States remains the most influential power in the Asia-Pacific region, its 10-point lead over China two years ago has been cut in half. “The gap between the United States and China is narrowing at an accelerating rate.” “China is catching up with the United States.” Many media outlets have used such headlines when reporting. According to the Australian think tank, the epidemic has changed the rules of the game: The United States has lost its reputation in response to the epidemic and China is not only the only major economy expected to recover in 2020, but it will also win the competition in the next decade. Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations at China’s University of Foreign Affairs, told a Global Times reporter on the 19th that the epidemic is one of the factors that catalyzed the decline in US power. It will continue to test the growth and decline of national governance and strength.
The power of the United States is the one that most declines
This is the third consecutive year that the Roy Institute for International Policy has published the “Asian Power Index” report. The report covers 8 areas of hard power and soft power, with a total score of 100 to assess the strength of 26 countries and regions in the Asia-Pacific region. The United States and China ranked first and second with 81.6 points and 76.1 points respectively, which constitutes the superpower step of this ranking. The British “Guardian” stated that while the United States remains the most powerful country in the Asia-Pacific region according to this report, it is also the country with the largest decline in power among the countries in the region in 2020.
“This year we have seen an accelerated transfer of power,” Helf LeMatthew, director of the Asia Power and Diplomacy Program at the Lowe Institute for International Politics, told The Guardian. This is a direct consequence of the pandemic and the lack of government performance. Caused for good. The newspaper quoted the “Asian Power Index” report as saying that the United States and China are equally divided into eight areas. The United States leads in all four areas of military strength, cultural influence, defensive networks, and resistance, while China has emerged as a new “hegemon” in all four areas of diplomatic influence, economic relations, future resources, and economic strength. However, the comparison shows that since the report was first published, the power gap between the United States and China has narrowed even further.
“China’s influence in Asia-Pacific will overtake the United States,” South Korea’s “Daily Economic” reported on the 19th. The Australian Think Tank report showed that, while the United States continues to maintain its leadership position, it has eight indicators except one. , The ranking of other indicators in the United States has decreased. While America’s influence in Asia-Pacific continues to decline, China’s rebounding influence has become increasingly prominent, scoring ever higher in the economic and military fields.
Singapore’s “Straits Times” commented that this narrowing power gap shows that Washington is far from being an undisputed single power. It is more accurate to say that it is one of the two poles in the Asia-Pacific region. Although China, a rising power, follows in second place, project researchers believe that in the next 10 years, China’s influence in Asia-Pacific is likely to exceed that of the United States. South Korea’s “Seoul Shimbun” stated that in the past three years, the tendency of Chinese influence to catch up with the United States is very obvious. The United States hopes to crack down on dominant Chinese companies like Huawei and Douyin through sanctions. China is tit for tat. In a sense, this is an example of China’s rising power.
However, the Australian think tank believes that it will be difficult for China to replace the United States and become the unmatched leading force in the region. According to the report, the United States still has many advantages in many respects, among which the situation of the US dollar is no better. Le Matthew said: “I think China will eventually catch up with the United States, but it is not enough to lead by a large margin.” The Russian Satellite News Agency quoted Su Hao, director of the Center for Strategic and Peace Research at the China University of Foreign Affairs, as saying that China’s growing power is due to the epidemic. The objective results of effective control, economic recovery, and the responsibility of a major country in the epidemic are not the deliberate pursuit of expanding influence. China and the United States each have their own influence, and they should meet midway in the Asia-Pacific region and play a role together.
“Resilience determines the strength of the next ten years”
“The United States has lost its face,” in Le Matthew’s view, the reasons include America’s ineffective response to the epidemic, various trade disputes, and the Trump administration’s withdrawal from multilateral agreements and institutions. He told Bloomberg in a telephone interview that the epidemic has changed the rules of the game and caused the United States a double blow. On the one hand, America’s mishandling of the new corona pneumonia crisis has made its reputation fade. On the other hand, it is clear that the United States will take many years to recover from the economic impact of this epidemic. If Trump is reelected in November, he will bring more “the same trends.” The report commented that due to the national and international response to the epidemic, the United States suffered the most significant reputational loss in Asia. This result is a powerful reminder that legitimacy and leadership on the world stage derive from the good national governance capacity of leaders.
Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations at the University of China Foreign Affairs, told the Global Times reporter on the 19 that the epidemic has become a catalyst for the decline of American power, but the deeper reason is the high level of division and chaos within the United States. America’s political elite is now at a crossroads of hesitation. That is why both the Democratic and Republican parties say they are fighting for the “soul of America.”
“The power of the recovery determines the strength of the next ten years,” Deutsche news agency reported that, compared to 2019, China’s strength index in 2020 is flat. However, due to the epidemic, the strength index of most countries has fallen from the previous year. China’s rapid recovery will further consolidate its position as the economic center of Asia, while the relative importance of the US economy in Asia may decline. The Lowe Institute for International Policy predicted in the report that the US economy may not return to its pre-COVID-19 pandemic level until 2024. China is completely different: the economy has recovered from the epidemic and is the world’s only major economy expected to recover in 2020. This may give it an edge over neighboring countries in the next ten years.
The German weekly “Focus” commented on the 19th that from Obama to Trump, the United States has “directed its diplomatic approach to Asia”, but now its strength in this region has fallen dramatically. This is the failure of the US strategy to contain China. The German Finance Network stated that the key for the United States to maintain its strength in Asia-Pacific is to develop its economy, continue to innovate and solve internal problems, rather than contain the rise of China. Otherwise, the two big countries will suffer and the world economy and politics will also be unstable.
Don’t let the hope of a benign Asian century fade away
In this year’s “Asia Power Index” report, Japan ranked third with 41 points for the third year in a row, and is the only member of the power echelon (plus or equal to 40 points). The report believes it has great influence in the region and will continue to maintain its “smart force”, but it may take nearly ten years to recover the economy from the new corona pneumonia epidemic. India, which ranks fourth in overall strength (39.7 points), is just one step away from reaching the threshold of a “great power.” According to the report, although India is the only country with a population size comparable to that of China, the expectation that it will achieve parity with China in the coming years is “unrealistic.” India must understand that it will take decades for them to become a superpower, and the whole process may not unfold in a linear fashion.
After India, Russia, Australia, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia are among the top ten countries in the “Asian Energy Index” ranking. According to the report, in Asia, Vietnam and Australia are trying to shape the regional order, although they are not strong enough to give orders. They must grapple with the consequences of the decline of America’s strategic dominance and the unusually difficult relationship between the United States and China.
Deutsche Radio commented on the 19th that the confrontation between the United States and China has made Asian countries the focus of international attention. The report reminds Asian countries that Trump’s nearly four-year term shows that “America first” does not just refer to US national interests or blatant nationalism, but also means abandoning multilateral consensus and cooperation. international. According to the Australian newspaper, the Australian think tank report warned that major power politics and the virus itself may extinguish hope for a benign Asian century.
The German “Berlin Daily” commented that, unlike Europe and the United States, which share common values, Asia-Pacific countries pay more attention to economic cooperation. China’s economic strength is ahead of the United States in Asia, and Asian countries are generally unwilling to choose a side between China and the United States. The stability of Sino-US relations is more beneficial to Asian countries.
