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Original title: The epidemic has worsened profoundly, New York and other parts of the United States have once again restarted the economic blockade Source: Sina Finance
On November 18 local time, New York Mayor De Blasio announced that as the average positive rate of new crown diagnoses in New York City has risen above 3% in the past 7 days, all public schools in the city will be closed again and more than 1.1 million students will be affected. The policy will now last at least until after the Thanksgiving holiday in late November, when the government will decide whether to extend it based on the situation.
As the epidemic worsens, the New York government said it is likely to issue more economic lockdown measures immediately, including a ban on eating indoors and closing gyms.
New York City has experienced six months of school suspension in the spring and summer. It wasn’t until September 21 that the shift system began to gradually open schools.
The safe and smooth reopening of schools not only marks the return of the lives of thousands of affected families, but also the hope that the economy will gradually improve. Reopening schools will allow more parents to return to work, help fuel the sluggish economy, and provide the necessary education and life support for thousands of underprivileged students, many of whom depend on the free school meals. Today, less than two months have passed since the school reopened. The new closure will make it harder for New York City to recover and will also undermine people’s confidence. Even the basic living conditions of the students will once again be challenged.
This move also meant that previous efforts to reopen the school were almost in vain. Regarding the schedule and specific methods of reopening the school, the government, New York school authorities, teachers and parents of the students began an anxious showdown since the summer. The teachers’ union declared that they would go on strike if the school reopened. Dare to send the child back to school. The government continues to postpone the start of classes under pressure from all parties and stipulates that once the positive rate exceeds 3%, the school will be closed again.
However, the New York City government seems to have no better option.
Since the outbreak of an epidemic, the positive rate in New York City has been stable below 1% since mid-June. Yet in the context of a comprehensive counterattack against the epidemic in other parts of the United States and new highs in confirmed cases across the country every day, New York cannot stand alone. Nationwide, the positive rate as of November 18 has risen from about 5% in September to 12%, and the average number of new cases per day in the last 7 days has exceeded 160,000.
(Source of table of current number of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in the United States: one acre of land)
Not only did confirmed cases set a new record, but it can be seen from the above figure that the current round of the epidemic has worsened and the number of deaths and hospitalizations has skyrocketed, significantly exceeding the previous peak level.
The United States has not implemented any measures to restrict the movement of people. New York State only requires that people from out of state must be quarantined for three days when they come to New York, and they can show a negative test result for the novel coronavirus before they can lift the quarantine. This cannot effectively prevent the spread of the virus and a real implementation is difficult to achieve. Therefore, the worsening of the epidemic in New York is completely within expectations.
As can be clearly seen from the figure above, after the epidemic in New York City has been relatively stable for four months, the number of new confirmed cases every day has increased dramatically since mid-November and the number of new cases has almost doubled.
Although the city government announced the immediate closure of schools, it remains controversial whether this measure can help control the epidemic. Mark Levine, chairman of the New York City Health Commission, said that although schools have been closed, gyms and indoor dining rooms are still open, and he hasn’t even advocated for people to work from home as much as possible. possible. The government is acting too late. Levine believes that the priority of closing gymnasiums and indoor dining rooms should be before schools are closed.
Compared to New York, other parts of the United States are even further behind bars. California, Washington state, Michigan, Oregon and elsewhere have announced indoor dining bans, as well as closures of movie theaters, gyms and other measures. Chicago began a new home quarantine order on Monday.
According to a study conducted on November 10 by the journal Nature, which tracked the mobile phone data of 98 million Americans, restaurants, gyms, cafes, hotels and places of worship are the main occasions for the spread of the new corona virus. . The scientists involved in the study said that restrictions in these public places in a short period of time can significantly control the spread of the epidemic: As people spend more time in closed public places, the risk of contracting the new coronavirus also is increasing. The model recommends implementing a 20% space occupancy limit and the number of new infections will be reduced by more than 80%.
Compared to the closure of public schools, restrictions on places of public consumption like restaurants and gyms will have a more obvious impact on the economic recovery. These SMEs provide about half of the employment in the United States, and employment is directly related to the consumption situation in the United States and provides the main driving force behind the growth of the US economy. Therefore, the government is unwilling to pay a huge financial price again. However, again, now there is no other option.
Prayer / Wei Tian
