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The Double Eleven Logistics War Is About To Begin! Express Industry Welcomes Small Business Volume Peak Season, And The Market Value Of Industry Giants Returns To The 400 Billion Mark
Source: Financial Association
The Financial Association (Shanghai, researcher Zhou Chen) reported that on the afternoon of November 4, the warehousing and logistics sector underwent strong changes.Hua PengfeiPull up the sealing plate,Milky WayHelp the daily limit,Xinning Logistics、Haichen shares、Felida、SF HoldingsThey have followed. At the close, the sector was up 2.26% and 11 constituent shares of the sector were up more than 2%. It’s worth noting that after today’s surge, industry giant SF Holdings has once again hit the 400 billion mark in market value.
Turning to the news, Bian Zuodong, deputy director of the Market Supervision Department of the State Post Office, stated that this year’s peak season runs from the beginning of November to the eve of the Spring Festival (February 12) in 2021. , a total of 103 days. Among them, during the “Double 11” period (November 11-16) there will be a peak of peak season, and the average daily express delivery turnover is expected to reach 490 million pieces, which is about double the daily turnover.
China’s warehousing index in October was 52.8%, 2.0 percentage points higher than the previous month.
With the arrival of a new cycle of consumption driven by the large-scale annual promotional activities launched by e-commerce platforms at the end of the year and the excitement of holiday consumption, logistics companies will also start the “order party” of end of the year.
According to survey data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, China’s warehousing index in October 2020 was 52.8%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points from the previous month. Among the sub-indices, the Extended Turnover Index and the Business Activity Expectations Index fell from the previous month, the tariff price index remained the same as the previous month, and the other indices rebounded to varying degrees.
In this regard, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing stated that with the further popularization of online consumption, the market scale of the e-commerce industry and express delivery has accelerated, and the growth rate is significantly higher than the total revenue growth of the logistics industry, and has maintained a growth rate of about 10% for four consecutive months. Rapid growth has further highlighted the driving effect of the logistics industry recovery.
From a fundamental point of view, the total national social logistics in the first three quarters was 202.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, and the growth rate was 0.8 percentage points higher than the one from January to August. The demand for logistics in various fields has recovered comprehensively and the upgrade trend is obvious. In the first three quarters, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 7.4 trillion yuan, from a 1.1% year-on-year decrease from January to August to a 0.1% increase.
As an important link between merchants and consumers, logistics and express companies have experienced various difficulties from the main line network to final distribution due to population movement and traffic control restrictions during the epidemic, as it re-establishes. normal production and the order of life of society. , He began to face a market full of opportunities and vitality. Compared to previous years, this year’s longest cycle ecommerce sales promotion campaign started heating up in October and officially started in November.
Corresponding to market performance, the data shows that logistics stocks have been rising slightly recently, with the sector index ranking among the top of Shenwan’s secondary industries. Among the 29 publicly traded companies in the logistics industry that released third-quarter reports, 18 companies achieved year-on-year growth in net profit in the first three quarters, accounting for more than 62%.Aoyang Shunchang、Hengtong Stocks、Henderson DaxinThe year-on-year increase in the net profit of other companies exceeded 50%.
As the leading stock in the current sector, Hua Pengfei also delivered a beautiful third quarter performance report. During the reporting period, Hua Pengfei achieved operating income of 130 million yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 4.50% and an attributable net profit of 20.73 million. Yuan up 560.31% year-on-year According to the third quarter report, it can be seen that Huapengfei’s business is gradually improving, its performance is constantly improving, and it is bottoming out.
Galaxy Securities noted that in September, the express delivery volume growth rate returned to more than 40% and the industry’s performance in terms of prosperity exceeded expectations. If “Double Eleven”, “Double 12” are considered, Christmas and other e-commerce promotions will bring another wave The stimulus of demand, the logic of the high prosperity of the express industry will remain unchanged before the end of the year, and the annual growth rate of shipments is expected to be 25% to 30%.
According to the latest Essence Securities research report, the State Post Office expects the average daily express turnover during the “Double 11” period to reach 490 million, an increase of approximately 40% over the same period of the year. last and roughly double the daily turnover this year. Demand for express delivery is primarily based on domestic C-end consumption, focusing on the revival of demand during the peak “Double 11” e-commerce season. Due to the impact of the epidemic and the intensification of industry competition, the performance of Tongda express delivery companies in 2020 will be under pressure. Pay attention to the impact of the collapse of JD, Jitu Express, Zhongyou and SF Express on the express delivery landscape, especially the differentiation of each express delivery company’s share and changes in the pattern. .
GF valuesGuo Zhen (Golden Unicorn analyst) said that the “Double Eleven” promotion can promote the continued high growth rate of shipments in the fourth quarter. The first “Double Eleven” after the epidemic is of great importance to boost the performance of the domestic demand market in the second half of the year. The major e-commerce platforms have also launched more intensive promotional programs.
Considering that the e-commerce industry is stimulated by year-end promotional activities like Double 11, its seasonality is more prominent and the express delivery industry is expected to usher in a small business season in the fourth quarter of this year.
Regarding investment opportunities, Guo Zhen said that in the first half of the year, the particularity of the external environment caused certain changes in the structure of the industry. The specific manifestations are the following:
1. The performance of direct express delivery far exceeds that of franchised express delivery;
2. For firms with advantages in scale, the marginal improvement in cost will be less.
The franchise express differentiation is shifting from earnings to cash flow, which is a strong signal for the leader to move forward. SF Express’s dual industries have returned to balance. The three elements of vision, capacity, and tracking largely coincide. The focus on core benefits is expected to accelerate SF Express’s growth as a leading integrated logistics company in China. Focus on: SF Holdings, Zhongtong Express,YTO Express、Yunda shares。
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