The defunct US rescue plan can hardly recover the damage caused by the epidemic

Original title: US Economic Notes | It is difficult to recover from the epidemic of the latest US rescue plan.

After many twists and turns, the President of the United StatesDonald trumpOn the night of the 27th local time, he finally signed a total of approximately 2.3 billionAmerican dollarA package of expense bills, including a $ 900 billion ransom aimed at addressing the economic damage caused by the new corona epidemic.money. Previously, Trump had refused to sign the bill due to insufficient subsidies to the people.

Analysts believe that the introduction of a new round of aid plans is not enough to save the damage caused by the spread of the epidemic to the economy and the population of the United States, and cannot fundamentally solve the long-term effects of the epidemic.unemploymentProblems such as population growth and the widening gap between rich and poor.

When the two parties in the United States Congress announced on the 20th that they had reached an agreement on a new round of bailout plans, the outside world had generally believed it was too late, and Trump’s refusal to sign the bill. law made the bill once again difficult to produce.

In March of this year, the US Congress passed an aid bill totaling approximately $ 2.2 trillion. Since then, the two sides have had big differences in the new round of the aid plan. Economic relief, coupled with the political considerations of the November presidential election, the two sides are reluctant to make concessions prematurely, thus falling within a six-month period.negotiationDeadpoint.

At the same time, the number of new confirmed cases and deaths of new crowns in the United States is increasing, and the prevention and control of the epidemic has become more difficult. Especially since November, the epidemic situation in the United States has continued to deteriorate, and many baseline indicators have remained high, entering the most serious stage since the outbreak, and medical systems in many places have faced unprecedented pressure.

Affected by the continued spread of the epidemic and the expiration of some government assistance programs, the US economy cannot maintain the speed of recovery in the third quarter.Unemployed benefitsAnd the number of people trapped in poverty has risen again.companyThe number keeps increasing.economistThere is widespread concern that the US economy could slip into a “double dip recession.”

According to a study published jointly this month by economists at the University of Chicago and the University of Notre Dame, about 7.8 million Americans have fallen intoPoverty lineThen the national poverty rate increased from 9.3% in June to 11.7% in November. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor also shows that, as of November, the number of unemployed in the United States still exceeded 10 million, of which 3.9 million long-term unemployed who had been unemployed for more than 10 million. 27 weeks, which represents 36.9%.

The latest relief plan extends the additional allowance for the unemployed until March next year, trying to passshort termfinancialSupport and help families and businesses “get through the winter.” However, the Federal ReserveCommitteePresident Powell and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci have cautioned that due to uncertainties about the vaccine’s efficacy, the United StatessocietyThe return of economic life to the right path can be as late as the end of the second quarter of 2021, or even later.

Economists generally believe that the scale and duration of funding provided by the latest round of aid programs in the United States is far from sufficient and there is no direct assistance to state and local governments, due to a lack of financial support , some state and local governments have begun to cut spending andLayoffs. Research by the US Congressional Budget Office on the bailout bill passed earlier this year shows that among the various aid programs, the most significant effect of stimulating US economic growth. It is the assistance of the state and local government.

Mohamed El-Elian, chief economic adviser at Allianz Group, believes that the bailout plan will not significantly change the short-term trend of the US economy, nor will it hedge the long-term risks facing the US economy. facing US policy makers is trustingcoinPolicy tools support economic recovery and lack ofStructural reform, Leading financiersmarketTrend andReal economySeriously out of touch, it will give future economic growthChangheFinancial stabilityIt brings risks.

Since the beginning of this year, under the impact of the epidemic, a large number of entities in the United States have declaredBankruptcy,andFinancial marketHowever, it rose against the trend and constantly renewed its all-time peak. More and more economists are concerned that the US economy is showing a “K-shaped” recovery trend. This means that the economic recovery can be extremely uneven, and most of the benefits of economic expansion can flow to the upper class, leaving the bottom group far behind, and the gap between rich and poor continues to widen.

(Source: Xinhua News Agency)

(Responsible editor: DF537)