[ad_1]
Original title: The central bank is expected to over-renew the MLF’s “monetary tightening” process for four consecutive months to finalize
On November 16, in order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, the central bank launched a medium-term loan operation (MLF) of 800,000 million yuan. The winning interest rate was 2.95%, the same as in October. The scale of MLF operations in November was $ 200 billion more than the maturity scale. yuan. There is no reverse repurchase operation on the day.
A total of 550 billion yuan of reverse buybacks and 200 billion yuan of MLF expired on the central bank’s open market this week. Among them, 320 billion yuan of reverse buybacks expired on the central bank’s open market this week, making a net investment of 230 billion yuan this week.
It is worth noting that the central bank of Japan carried out 800 billion one-year MLF operations, and the MLF maturity in November was 600 billion yuan. This means that this month the central bank has invested 200 billion yuan in medium and long-term liquidity in the banking system through the over-roll of the MLF, and this is the fourth consecutive month that the central bank has over-rolled over. the MLF.
A trader told a 21st Century Business Herald reporter that funds have been tight in the past week, and this is mainly because the Yongmei Incident led to the temporary sale of some funds, which in part caused a liquidity strain . Also, last week there was a situation where the central bank did not expire but the central bank also has an aftermath, which means that the central bank has to ease face funding to some extent.
“But overall, the funding side was still tight last week, and it didn’t loosen up a bit until Friday afternoon. Today’s central bank MLF aftermath beat market expectations. So, various related issues this morning (16) Interest rates have dropped too low, “he said.
In this regard, Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Oriental Jincheng, said that the MLF has been overturned for four consecutive months, which means that the central bank is supplementing the banking system with medium- and long-term liquidity to avoid a deviation. Excessive medium-term market interest rates from the center of policy interest rates. The main reason behind this is that banks still have the difficult task of reducing structural deposits in the fourth quarter, and there is an urgent need to find alternative and stable sources of financing.
“The excessive rollover of the MLF for four consecutive months means that the central bank intends to regulate the upward momentum of the medium-term market interest rate represented by the interbank deposit rate to avoid excessive stress on medium-term liquidity. and long-term, “said Wang Qing,” on the one hand, the recent 10-year treasury bond Both yield and 1-year interbank joint stock certificates of deposit interest rates have exceeded 3.20%, which is significantly higher than the MLF interest rate. Excessive continuation of the MLF by the central bank may prevent medium-term market interest rates from deviating excessively from the center of policy interest rates and help stabilize expectations On the other hand, the continuous increase in interest rates in the market in the medium term will inevitably increase the cost of bank liabilities, which will not leads to banks continuing to lower their real interest rates before the end of the year. The impact of the current evolution of the national and foreign epidemic on future macroeconomic restoration, which reduces the real economy, should not be underestimated. Financing costs are an important support for stable growth and employment. “
The “Second Quarter Monetary Policy Implementation Report” issued by the Central Bank shows that guiding market interest rates, such as the yield curve of treasury bonds and the interest rate of interbank certificates of deposit in around the MLF interest rate, it is one of the important objectives of current monetary policy operations.
Furthermore, in Wang Qing’s opinion, the incremental scale of the MLF in November was 200 billion, which decreased for two consecutive months (increase of 400 billion in September and 300 billion in October), which may be related to the recent slowdown in the interest rate on interbank deposits. . The “currency tightening” process is expected to end before the end of the year, which means that the “currency tightening” process from mid to late May is expected to come to an end, and the capital will go from “adjusted” to “stable”.
Soochow Securities Research Report said that, overall, a net investment of 40 billion yuan in October. Looking ahead, monetary policy in November is expected to remain neutral.
On that day, the Shanghai interbank offer rate (Shibor) registered 2.252% overnight, 27 basis points less than last Friday; the 7-day Shibor posted 2.339%, down 9.4 basis points; the 14-day Shibor registered 2.86%, a slight increase of 1.8 basis points. Furthermore, it can be clearly seen that the short-term Shibor has gradually slowed down in the last week, and the overnight and 7-day Shibor swings have started to show a slight downward trend.
In terms of committed buyback rates, DR001 and DR007 continued to increase slightly during the last week, but DR001 reported 2.2366% that day, approximately 55 basis points less than last Friday; DR007 reported 2.3825%, a sharp drop of approximately 98 basis points.
“After the average value of the DR007 short-term market interest rate approached the policy rate (the central bank’s 7-day reverse repurchase rate) in August, the central bank significantly increased its market operations open, “added Wang Qing,” from this we judge that with the central bank Continue to increase the amount of medium and long-term liquidity in the banking system. In addition, banks are close to completing the task of reducing structural deposits. The medium-term market interest rate represented by interbank certificates of deposit is also expected to finish the process of continuous increase before the end of the year. The effect of the ‘monetary stabilization’ is expected Fully reflected in interest rates of the market in the short and medium term “.
Regarding the possibility that the central bank will continue the MLF and RRR cut this month, Wang Qing believes that the possibility of implementing an RRR cut before the end of the year will further diminish, and monetary policy will continue in the ” observation period “for some time. The central bank will preferably choose to inject medium- and long-term liquidity into the banking system through MLF operations rather than implement a large-scale RRR cut to permanently expand the banks’ liquidity level in the medium and long term.
According to the “Financial Statistics Report for October 2020” released by the Central Bank on November 11, at the end of October, the balance of broad money (M2) was 214.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%; the balance of money in the strict sense (M1) was 60.92 trillion yuan. An annual increase of 9.1%; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 8.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year.
(Author: Hu Tian Jiao Editor: Zeng Fang)
