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Original Title: Improve the Layout of the Fund Company’s Busy Investigation Late Next Year
Securities Times reporter Cao Wenjing
At the end of the year, public funds intensively research listed companies and actively prepare for the layout of the next year. Wind data shows that as of December 11, since November, the number of public funds surveys reached 4106, of which 15 publicly traded companies have received surveys from more than 50 fund companies, and “bull stocks” from Consumer electronicsGoertekIt also received 97 fund inquiries, ranking first in the number of public fund investigators.
From an industrial distribution perspective, the electronic components, semiconductor products, healthcare, biotechnology, communication equipment, and industrial machinery sectors are favored by fund companies, and building materials and chemicals in the procyclical sector are also attracting attention.
A leading Shanghai-based equity fund manager said the end of the year is “peak season” for fund company research, because some fund managers need to adjust their positions and trade stocks at the end of the year, and the end of the year is when strategic reports are published intensively, so research will be more frequent.
There is a structural opportunity next year
Huang Lihua, Director of Asset Equity at HSBC Jinxin Fund, believes that China is the best performing country in the global economy under the epidemic, and RMB assets are very attractive to foreign investors. As the results of the US general election become clearer, the uncertainty of Sino-US relations is expected to gradually disappear. Foreign funds are expected to gradually flow into the Chinese market. With the gradual control of the global epidemic and the recovery of economic growth, business profitability is expected to improve next year, and the overall stock market is expected to fluctuate higher.
The Cathay Pacific Fund believes that the current valuation of A shares is relatively high, but some medium and long-term factors support the performance of A shares, and there may be some structural opportunities next year. First, the capital market reform process continues to advance. With the advancement of scientific and technological innovation boards, registration systems and other systems, more high-quality companies will have the opportunity to list on the A-share market, and the market activity will increase; In the context of the net worth of the product, the process of transferring the private wealth of Chinese residents and entering the stock market will continue; finally, the global pattern of “low growth, low inflation and low interest rates” is not expected to change, and high quality equity assets will continue to enjoy valuation. Value premium, foreign funds will continue to allocate A shares. In this context, the rate of growth of earnings of listed companies will have a momentum to recover, which may digest market valuations to some extent. Structural opportunities are expected next year and we are relatively optimistic about automation equipment, new energy, new infrastructure, and other fields.
Fang Jianwei, CEO of Debon Fund Stock Investment Division I, believes that in 2021, the economy will improve and policies will converge, and the opportunity cost of capital and the risk premium will increase. The main policy line will become “stabilizing leverage”, from the fiscal space, the money supply. Regarding the three dimensions of financial policy, the most accommodative stage has passed. In this case, the A-share valuation increase over the past two years may be under some pressure, and performance certainty may be a more important factor. Maintain a relatively optimistic attitude towards the market as a whole, but the expected rate of return must be reduced accordingly.
Wei Fengchun, chief analyst for macro strategy at Boshi Fund, believes the A-share style will remain balanced in 2021. It is expected after mid-year, as the momentum of economic growth and the decline in macro liquidity slows , the performance trend may once again dominate emerging industries. So the growth style will also perform relatively well.
Optimistic about finance, consumption, technology
Huang Lihua said that in 2021, he is mainly optimistic about the four main lines of big finance, cyclical industry leaders, domestic demand and technological innovation. Big Finance currently has a low valuation and good liquidity, which is attractive to large funds. In terms of leading cyclical industries, we are optimistic about leading stocks in real estate and its industry chain weakening cyclically. The chemical and non-ferrous components industries also have investment opportunities stemming from increased concentration. In terms of domestic demand, consumption and medical services have increased strongly this year, with high valuations, but the long-term certainty is strong. Focus on online consumption, high-end liquors and medical services. The optional consumption in 2021 deserves attention. In terms of technological innovation, the demand for photovoltaic vehicles and new energy has exploded in recent years, and the supply chain has been gradually replaced by prominent national companies. At the same time, we are optimistic about sectors with relatively strong performance in TMT, such as consumer electronics and cloud computing infrastructure. , Media and semiconductor materials.
Cathay Pacific Fund said that at the industry configuration level, it focuses on consumer optional + financing + cycle, and structural products can focus on external products related to demand. Optional consumption is expected to follow marginal economic recovery in the second half of the year, including spirits, full-chain industrial furniture, appliances and automobiles. In the financial sector, banking and insurance are better than real estate. The cyclical sector valuation is expected to reestablish and the cyclical growth subsectors in building materials, non-ferrous metals, chemicals and machinery to take a firm hold. Among them, the export chain is better than the real estate infrastructure chain, and the end of the completed real estate construction is better than the new beginning.
Fang Jianwei believes that next year’s procyclical sector should be a better investment direction as the direction of economic recovery. The middle and upper reaches of the raw materials manufacturing industry, which is the leading chemical, non-ferrous and construction materials industry, is the industry of choice. Consumer, pharmaceutical and technology sectors with strong long-term growth may have better allocation opportunities in the process of falling valuations and need a good research base to support them. With the continued inflow of foreign capital, the proportion of institutional investors in A shares will increase, and the institutionalized market style will become mainstream, and leading high-yield companies will continue to enjoy higher valuations.
Wei Fengchun believes that in 2021, we will focus on improving flexibility and performance certainty and focus on three main lines. One is areas that benefit from expanding overseas demand and are highly dependent on China, such as furniture, mechanical and electrical products, auto parts, and fine chemicals. ; Second, industries that benefit from fermenting overseas inflation expectations and low inventories, such as industrial metals and chemicals; third, some advanced manufacturing industries with high growth and prosperity, such as the new energy automobile industry chain and consumer electronics.
Dacheng Ruijing Flexible Allocation Fund Manager Han Chuang believes he is cautiously optimistic about next year’s market. In the context of the recovery of the economic relief at home and abroad, some sectors with reasonable valuations will have absolute gains. Optimistic about the procyclical chemical, nonferrous, machinery, military and agricultural sectors.
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