Seasonal PMI Fall In February, These 4 Key Messages Can’t Be Ignored

Original title: PMI seasonally declined in February, these 4 key messages cannot be ignored

　　China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing、National Statistical OfficeServiceAccording to data released by the Industry Research Center today, in February,manufacturingSMEs, The non-manufacturing PMI and the PMI composite production index were 50.6%, 51.4% and 51.6% respectively, 0.7, 1.0 and 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous month, and remained above the prosperity line for 12 consecutive months . a set continues to expand.

“The Christmas sunset for this year’s Spring Festival will be in mid-February.businessProduction and operationGreater impact, manufacturingmarketThe level of activity has decreased and the level of prosperity has decreased from the previous month. “Said Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician with the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics.

Affected by seasonal factors, manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs have fallen. But in-depth analysis of the data, these four key signals can not be ignored.

　　Signal 1: The economy continues to maintain a stable recovery trend

In February, the manufacturing PMI remained above the downline for 12 consecutive months. In the sub-index, business productionOperatingThe activity expectation index rose to 59.2%, 1.3 percentage points more than last month;Production indexThis was a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month to 51.9%, which was higher than the level of the index for the month in which the Spring Festival was celebrated in previous years.

Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomic researcher at the State Council Research Center, said: “The PMI index continued to fall in February, but remained on the line of prosperity and decline, indicating that the Chinese economy continues to maintain a steady recovery trend. In the PMI index, the index of expectations of future production and operation increased, which indicates that companies are. Market expectations are relatively optimistic, indicating that production will pick up after the Spring Festival. “

porcelainLogistics informationcenterAnalystWen Tao analyzed that the Spring Festival factor has caused the normal slowdown in business production growth, but the active implementation of “New Year’s Day” measures in various places will help enterprises to stabilize production and resume work faster. Although the supply and demand index has decelerated, it remains at a relatively good level of 51.5% or more, and the momentum of the recovery of economic stability has not changed.

According to Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, with the start of the construction season after the Spring Festival, the warming climate and the good progress of vaccination at home and abroad, it is expected that the manufacturing hub PMI and the non-manufacturing PMI is expected to increase from March to December.

　　Sign 2: New kinetic energy continues to grow rapidly and the pace of high-end manufacturing is picking up

Data shows that in February, the equipment manufacturing PMI was 52.2%, and the production index and the new orders index were above 53.5%. Although the high-tech manufacturing PMI fell by more than 1 percentage point from the previous month, it remained at a relatively high level of 53.6%. The industry is growing rapidly.

From a specific industrial perspective, general equipment,Professional environment, Automobiles, electronic computer communication equipment andInstrumentationThe expectations indices of production and operation activities in other industries are at the high level of prosperity. Some companies surveyed reported that March will enter the peak production and sales season.Market demandIt is expected to rebound and companies have increased their confidence in the development of the industry after the holidays.

“This shows that the new momentum continues to grow rapidly and that the pace of high-end manufacturing has accelerated,” emphasized Wen Tao.

The data also shows that in February,Big companyThe PMI rose 0.1 percentage point from the previous month to 52.2%, which was 1.6 percentage points higher than the overall manufacturing PMI. The difference reached a new high since 2020, indicating that large companies are still accelerating their recovery under the influence of the Spring Festival, and their role in supporting the economy has increased.

In Wen Tao’s view, these positive factors are expected to further consolidate the momentum of economic stability and recovery.

　　Signal 3: Most ManufacturingDepartureCompanies remain optimistic about the recent foreign trade situation

According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, although both the manufacturing export new orders index and the import index fell in February,Exporting companiesThe expectation index for production and operation activities is 60.8%, which is at the high level of prosperity.

According to Zhao Qinghe’s analysis, due to the slowdown in production and procurement activities during the Spring Festival, the foreign trade business of the manufacturing industry has declined compared to the previous month. Judging by market expectations, most manufacturing export companies remain optimistic about the recent foreign trade situation.

The foreign trade data for January and February of this year will be released on a consolidated basis. Tang Jianwei, chief researcher at the Bank of Communications Center for Financial Research, believes that during the Spring Festival, most of the country defended the “Chinese New Year on the spot” and resuming work between 1 and 2 weeks before the spring. Festival will help foreign trade exporting companies to expand their export capacity Foreign trade transport such as ports and terminals is operating normally and exports are adequate Guaranteed In general, it is estimated that the total value of exports from January to February it is 400 billion US dollars.Year with yearThe growth rate was 37%.

　　Signal four: retail, catering, entertainment, etc.consumptionIndustry PMI is active

Data shows that in February, the service industry PMI was 50.8%, 0.3 percentage points lower than last month, and still higher than the threshold, indicating that the service industry continues expanding, but the rate has dropped.

However, withResident consumptionBusiness activity indices for closely related industries such as retail, catering and entertainment are in the expanding range and higher than last month. The commercial activities of the industry are relatively active; telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services,badgeThe business activity index for financial services and other industries exceeded 58.0% and business volume continued to grow rapidly.

“From the perspective of changes in industry data, driven by Christmas consumption, the demand for related service industries has recovered and the non-manufacturing industry has grown steadily,” said Wu Wei, analyst at the China Logistics Information Center.

Taking the retail and catering industry as an example, according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from February 11 to 17, the main national retail and catering companies achieved sales of about 821 billion yuan, an increase of 28.7%. compared to Spring 2020. Festival Holidays and an increase over Spring Festival Holidays 2019 4.9%.

Wuwei analyzed that after the Spring Festival, the return of production and operation of companies to normal will lead to a significant rebound in production-related services industry activities such as the wholesale and financial industries, and the related activities of the service industry, such as accommodation, entertainment and entertainment. It is also expected to speed up the recovery.

He emphasized, “Affected by the Spring Festival factor, the non-manufacturing industry in February showed the characteristics of an off-season callback, but the long-term positive and stable recovery trend of the non-manufacturing industry did not change. Macro -Control should be done more through expanding domestic demand while maintaining continued political stability., Driven by innovation, etc.strategyStrengthen the cultivation of endogenous driving forces for economic growth. “

(Source: Shanghai Securities News)

(Editor in charge: DF075)