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Regardless of the ending, the UK will be on its way with a ‘Brexit aftermath’
The final “fight” appears to be an indispensable plot of the British drama “Brexit.” A year ago, less than two months after Britain’s legal “Brexit,” Prime Minister Johnson pushed for a snap election and led the Conservative Party to win the most seats since the Thatcher era. He directed the “Law of the Brexit Agreement”. It was subsequently approved by a large number of votes in the British Parliament, and Britain officially left the European Union on January 31 this year, entering an 11-month transition period. A year later, similar plots seem to be repeating themselves. The Anglo-European negotiations, which have been postponed due to the difficulty of bridging differences, finally showed a turning point as the transition period was about to expire in three weeks. The turning point occurred dramatically overnight.
On the evening of December 7, local time, the President of the European Commission, Von der Lein and Johnson, spoke once again about the negotiations on the future relationship between Europe and Great Britain. The two parties then stated in a short statement that due to the three key issues of level playing field, contract performance management and fisheries, there are still major differences and the conditions for reaching an agreement “do not yet exist”. But the next day (8), the Vice-President of the European Commission, Marosh Shevcovic, and the Secretary of the British Cabinet Office, Michael Gove, issued a statement on behalf of the co-chair of the EU-UK Joint Commission. The “Brexit” agreement has reached “unanimity of principle”, covering issues such as border control, inspections of entry and exit of animals, plants and derivatives, export declarations, trade in medicines and frozen meat products, etc. , and state subsidies clarified under the “Brexit” agreement The scope of application. The UK also promised to withdraw disputed clauses from the Internal Market Act that violated the “Brexit” deal, and the two sides agreed to continue to deal with Irish and Northern Ireland border inspections and other related matters in accordance with the deal. “Brexit”.
Johnson himself also relented. When asked if he would still work hard to reach an agreement until the last minute, Johnson replied, “Of course he will.” This is obviously different from your previous “ready to leave the European Union without a deal” stance. .
“In some negotiations, this situation is the norm.” Wang Zhanpeng, director of the Center for British Studies at Beijing University of Foreign Studies, told reporters for China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily that, from past experiences, the EU is used to “marathon” negotiations. During several years of trade negotiations, progress was made in the last one or two days or even the last night. Those so-called “overnight negotiations” are more of a political stance. Both parties are very clear about the final result of the other and the negotiation chips. “The question is whether it is necessary to reach an agreement through concessions in the end.”
The EU summit is about to take place on December 10. The EU’s main Brexit negotiator, Barnier, believes this summit is the point where the EU and Britain can reach an agreement. If the draft agreement appears on the EU summit table and is approved, it will also have to be reviewed by the European Parliament and EU member states. Because of this, public opinion generally believes that if the two sides miss the EU summit time window, they can really start preparing for a no-deal “Brexit”.
On December 8, the Advanced Institute of Regional and Global Governance of the Beijing University of Foreign Studies, the British Research Center of the Beijing University of Foreign Studies, the British Studies Branch of the Chinese European Society and Social Sciences Literature Press jointly published the “British Blue Book: British Development Report (2019-2020)”. As an updated annual report, the “Blue Book” system classifies internal and external affairs and economic and social affairs during the transition period of the British “Brexit”. As editor-in-chief of this book, Wang Zhanpeng told reporters from China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily that the central differences between Britain and Europe are actually old problems, and it will be difficult to fully resolve them in the next few days or years. last two or three weeks. Many specific problems can be possible. It will take several years to resolve gradually. Britain’s “Brexit” transition period ends on December 31 this year. There is little change in the result.
The “Blue Book” noted that July last year to July this year was the first year of the Johnson administration. The smug Johnson declared earlier this year that he would open a new chapter in British history and create an “extraordinary decade” in Britain. However, it was during this year that Britain experienced unprecedented change, internal and external difficulties. The dual shock of ‘Brexit’ and the new corona pneumonia epidemic has seen the UK face general challenges in the past year, and it has also greatly reduced Johnson’s report card.
Time is getting tighter. No matter how the British drama of ‘Brexit’ ends, the ‘Brexit’ process itself and the new corona pneumonia epidemic have profoundly affected the direction of British politics. The Conservative Party won an overwhelming victory in the December 2019 general elections, which seemed to pave the way for breaking the “Brexit” deadlock; But the outbreak of the new corona pneumonia epidemic has not only disrupted the pace of negotiations between the Johnson administration and the EU on the future relationship. And because of its much-criticized anti-epidemic strategy, the British public’s support and confidence in the Conservative Party has declined significantly. The “Blue Book” emphatically mentioned that partisan political play is one of the key factors in the outcome of Britain’s “Brexit”. Is this judgment still applied? Wang Zhanpeng analyzed that although the impact was not as obvious as before last year’s general election, partisan political games still have an impact on the “Brexit” process itself and on British politics in the “post-Brexit era. “. For the ruling Conservative Party, how to deal with the challenges of Labor and other opposition parties after Brexit, how to deal with the rise of local nationalism in Scotland and Northern Ireland and how to solve economic problems and social in the UK. Game problems.
The unresolved issue of “Brexit”, coupled with the severe impact of the epidemic, dual challenges put the British economy under tremendous pressure. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak said in his spending review report to Parliament in November that the British economy could contract by 11.3% this year, which will be the worst economic recession in nearly 300 years. The risk of a “hard Brexit” remains and has also led to some signs of withdrawal of foreign capital. The financial industry, retail industry, tourism and other service industries that have a relatively high share of the British economy are expected to have a difficult time recovering effectively. The manufacturing industry may face a sharp decline in production capacity, which will lead to increased unemployment.
Overall, subject to a number of internal and external factors, the UK economy is unlikely to see a recovery in the short term. Even after the epidemic ends, the economic shock, including the burden of public debt, will last longer. Whether the trade deal between the UK and Europe can be reached, whether the post-epidemic economic recovery plan can be implemented smoothly and whether the financial market can stabilize and recover are three important factors related to medium and long-term development. term of the British economy.
The situation is so dire that it is so important to reach a trade agreement between Great Britain and Europe. But in Wang Zhanpeng’s view, Johnson may not quite believe it. On the one hand, even if it finally has “no agreement to leave the European Union”, the UK can initiate other coordination work to “compensate for the losses inside the embankment and outside the embankment”; on the other hand, Johnson’s governance is at a weak stage right now, and he is unwilling to do so himself. Make substantial concessions in the negotiations between Britain and Europe, so as not to give others authority in the country.
Wang Zhanpeng believes that Johnson’s pragmatic style will continue. This is particularly evident when dealing with diplomatic issues. This is also stated in the “Blue Book”. Although strengthening the special relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States is a key part of the plan for the realization of a “global Britain”, Johnson himself and Trump have also formed a relatively good personal relationship, but the two still have many political differences. For example, on the issue of the Iran nuclear deal, Johnson has fully implemented the “balance beam” tactics. On the one hand, he is open to the so-called “Trump plan” and believes that if the nuclear deal with Iran is invalid, the “Trump plan” is an alternative option; He continued to coordinate with the leaders of France and Germany to form a united front to safeguard the global agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue.
Britain’s handling of China’s problems, like Huawei’s 5G, is in stark contrast to its handling of the Iranian nuclear issue. Repentance of previous promises and the announcement of Huawei’s ban from participating in the construction of 5G networks in the United Kingdom, and actions consistent with the United States on the traceability of the new corona virus, the problems related to Hong Kong and the Xinjiang-related issues have also highlighted China’s more rigid policy from the Johnson administration.
Wang Zhanpeng believes that the accumulation of multiple issues fully exposed the enthusiasm, contradiction and speculation of the Johnson administration in its foreign policy. After the change of government in the United States, the European Union will undoubtedly remain its most important ally in the West. At that point, Britain will be in a more marginalized position after Brexit.
Right now, the eyes of the world are focused on the talks between Johnson and Von der Lein in Brussels. “All or nothing” and “cliff talks” are words in many media headlines. The problem is that although there seems to be a turning point overnight, there is still the possibility of a “no-deal Brexit”; Even if a deal is struck, the UK will inevitably have to get back on the road with “aftermath of Brexit”.
Our newspaper, Beijing, December 9
China Youth Daily · China Youth Daily reporter Ma Ziqian Source: China Youth Daily
