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Original title: Repeated epidemic of Europe, the economy may be difficult to recover, the foreign market for household appliances is difficult
[Home Grid HEA.CN 26 de septiembre, original de WeChat]Recently, epidemics have been repeated in many European countries. As of the night of September 23 Beijing time, a total of 31,673,100 cases of new coronary pneumonia had been diagnosed worldwide, and the cumulative deaths reached nearly a million, reaching 972,400. Between them, Spain and France each added more than 10,000 cases each day, and the United Kingdom increased by almost 5,000 cases each day.
Affected by the epidemic, several major European conferences have been rescheduled and reformed due to the epidemic, and many economic activities have also been affected. Major European stock indices are reported to have suffered a collective slide on Monday. At the close of Monday, the European Stoxx 50 index fell 3.74%, the German DAX index fell 4.45% and the French CAC index fell 3.74%.
The pandemic is not just that the world economy will hardly recover this year
Although the domestic epidemic of the new crown has been controlled, with the arrival of autumn and winter in the northern hemisphere, there have been repeated epidemics in many European countries. On September 21, local time, official data from the Spanish Ministry of Health showed that in the last three days, the accumulated number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in Spain increased by more than 30,000, an average of more than 10,000 new cases per day. 38% of the national total; In the UK, as of 21 September local time, the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the UK has reached almost 400,000, with more than 4,000 new cases in a single day. Patrick Valence, chief scientific adviser to the British government, warned that the current number of virus infections is doubling roughly every seven days. If no further action is taken, by mid-October the UK may add 50,000 new coronavirus infections each day; In France, data shows that in the last 7 days, more than 4,000 COVID-19 patients were admitted to hospital for treatment in France, and more than 600 patients need to be treated in the intensive care unit. Currently, 55 provinces of France are hot spots for the epidemic, representing about half of the country’s 101 provinces.
Repeatedly affected by the epidemic, the governments of many countries have successively restarted epidemic prevention and restrictive measures. The government of the Community of Madrid has decided to restrict the movement of people from September 21 to the 37 basic health districts of Madrid and neighboring municipalities and to implement a two-week restriction policy; the number of private or public meetings will be kept to a small number. The latest anti-epidemic measures of the British government stipulate that as of September 24, bars, restaurants and other commercial premises must operate in accordance with the government’s anti-epidemic guidelines, and must close at 10 pm; increase retail sales, indoor catering, taxi and other industries. Mandatory requirements for professionals to wear masks; establish the maximum number of participants for weddings, funerals and other events; suspension of plans to reopen exhibitions, conferences and large-scale sporting events; all schools are closed; French officials establish new epidemics based on epidemic data indicators The alert system divides the relevant areas into “alert zones”, “high alert zones” and “strongest alert zones” on the epidemic map. The restaurants and bars located in the “strongest alert zones” should start from this Saturday (26). ) Public places that do not comply with epidemic prevention regulations will be closed completely and also closed.
Under the influence of the reappearance of the new corona epidemic, the European economy once again suffered a second wave of shocks. France’s tourism industry is the worst hit. Le Moyne, the secretary of state for tourism affairs, said France’s international tourism revenue from January to June this year has lost 50% to 12.3 billion euros. Madrid forecasts that the Spanish economy will contract by 9.2% in 2020, outpacing the decline during the financial crisis of 2008-2013. The Italian government also predicts that the economy is expected to contract by 9% in 2020, while the forecast in April was only 8%. According to the forecast report prepared by the European Commission, the EU’s economic growth rate in 2020 will be -8.3%. Economic growth in many countries will hit a record low in recent years.
The European economic recession has further hampered the recovery of the world economy. According to UNCTAD forecasts, the world economy will contract by more than 4% this year, world production will fall by more than US $ 6 trillion, world trade will decline by about 20% and it is likely that direct foreign investment occurs. Decrease by 40%. From 90 to 120 million people in developing countries will fall into extreme poverty and almost 300 million people will face food security problems. Falling tax revenues and increasing deficits in many countries put pressure on them to pay huge public debts. This year, the world economy may experience a full-scale recession comparable to the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The rise of unilateralism and trade protectionism may encounter obstacles in the foreign market for household appliances in the second half of the year
The current new corona pneumonia epidemic is still spreading globally, the world economy is in recession, international trade and investment have contracted dramatically, unilateralism and trade protectionism are on the rise, and factors are uncertain and unstable. have increased. The World Trade Organization even released a report that predicts that world trade will shrink between 13% and 32% this year due to the impact of the new corona epidemic. At least in the face of economic shocks, the governments of many countries can increase their support for important industries, prioritizing domestic interests and employment. One of the means of action is to restrict trade.
Thanks to early control of the internal epidemic, China’s exports abroad did not suffer much in the first half of the year. According to statistics, since April 2020, the share of China’s exports in the world’s major economies has increased significantly, from an average of 13.3% in 2019 to 16% -17% this year. Among them, the total export value of home appliances nationwide was 187 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%.
However, with the increasingly complex environment abroad in the second half of the year, the home appliance export industry may not be as easy as the first. Many home appliance brands have also raised concerns about the overseas appliance market in 2020: Haier Zhijia said that the alleviation of the trade war in 2020 will benefit the global economy, but the worsening of the epidemic on a global scale will have a negative impact on the global economy and will seriously affect home appliances abroad. Market demand; Midea Group stated that since the end of February this year, the epidemic situation in overseas regions has also shown an increasing trend.If the impact of the new corona pneumonia epidemic lasts a long time, it may affect the company’s business development in 2020. To challenge; Gree Electric said that due to the impact of novel coronavirus pneumonia, “reverse globalization” and trade protectionism trends in certain countries or regions have become more prominent, and the uncertainty of the global economy has increased further, and the expansion of the company’s foreign market. It brings new challenges and there is a risk of increasing operating costs.
According to the latest data published by the World Trade Organization, affected by the new corona pneumonia epidemic, world trade in goods in the second quarter of this year fell by 14.3% compared to the first quarter, being Europe and North America which registered the greatest decrease. Data shows that in the second quarter, world merchandise trade exports fell 15%, while imports fell 13.6%. During the same period, the volume of trade in goods in Europe and North America contracted more severely, with a decrease of 21% and 20% respectively; the Asian region was less affected, with a decrease of 7%. The United States, Europe and other developed countries have invested astronomical amounts of funds to cope with the epidemic crisis and lower their own exchange rates, which has weakened the competitiveness of emerging markets exports. Many developing countries have changed their policy measures to increase trade barriers. Some experts expressed concern that similar control measures could form a new wave of trade protection focused on emerging countries.
(Home Grid® HEA.CN)
