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Original title: Peak consumption season approaches short-term increase in pork prices
Beijing Commercial Daily (Reporter Tao Feng Liu Hanlin) The peak season for traditional consumption is approaching and the price of pork has temporarily risen. According to the latest monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, at 2:00 p.m. on December 1, the average wholesale price of pork in the domestic pork market reached 40.85 yuan. / kg. A Beijing Business Daily reporter found that after sustaining the two-month decline, the average wholesale price of pork began to fluctuate upward in mid-to-early November, with the overall increase in the month exceeding 3.3 %.
“Judging by the trend of the national average price of live pigs in recent days, the price of pigs has temporarily shown signs of accelerated increase. From 25 to 26 November, the price of pigs per kilogram increased by almost 0 , 2 yuan, and the price strength was quite unexpected. However, the price of pork has been falling before, and many consumers have increased their consumption of pork, which has a certain impact on the trend of prices, “a pig farmer told a reporter for the Beijing Commercial Daily.
“As the weather turns cooler, the peak season for pork consumption will follow. However, the high price of live pigs generally occurs after the start of bacon production in the south. We believe earlier winter solstice, as bacon is made in many places in the south The peak of pork consumption is approaching. As long as there are no surprises, the price of live pigs will continue to fluctuate and rise, but depends on the increase in general supply of live pigs, “Sozhu.com chief analyst Feng Yonghui once said in an interview.
Since the third quarter, the recovery of China’s live pig production capacity has accelerated. At the end of September, the national live pig inventory reached 84% at the end of 2017 and this figure reached 88% at the end of October. The competent person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs revealed that in October another 728 new-scale pig farms were put into production throughout the country. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative number of newly built large-scale pig farms has reached 13,000, and another 15,000 large-scale pig farms that were empty last year have started to rise. “In line with this trend, in the second quarter of next year, the national pig population will basically return to the level of normal years.”
So far, some provinces and cities across the country have completed the task of restoring annual pig production capacity. For example, Hunan Province has accelerated the expansion of pig production capacity. At the end of the third quarter, live pigs and breeding sows in the province totaled 34,177 million head and 3.17 million head, respectively, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%. It is estimated that by the end of the year, there will be 35.5 million live pigs in the province, and 45 million live pigs will be slaughtered throughout the year. Both indicators have exceeded the tasks assigned by the central government. In the same period, the number of live pigs in Hengshui, Hebei rebounded to 86.3% at the end of 2017, which is 2.3 percentage points higher than the national level, 0.2% higher than the province, achieving the objective of recovering pig production capacity ahead of schedule.
However, the aforementioned ranchers also said that it is winter and that the hidden dangers of pig farming should not be underestimated. After the price of pigs goes up, there will be a lot of professional fattening and secondary fattening farms. Now the weather is also cold and the peak of the swine disease outbreak is approaching. In the later stage, it is necessary to follow the market and take security protection to reduce swine diseases. What happened ”, said the aforementioned farmers.
At the previous press conference held by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Livestock and Veterinary Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, recalled that the current situation of African swine fever in the country is in stable overall. The situation is relatively large and the one-time outbreak situation will continue for a long time. As the temperature in autumn and winter drops, the cleaning and disinfecting effect may be affected. In addition, frequent transport of breeding pigs and piglets can further increase the risk of an outbreak and spread of the epidemic, which is why protection is necessary.
Speaking of short-term price expectations, Sozhu.com’s analysis noted that farmers and some large-scale farms are still reluctant to sell, and the amount of slaughter has also decreased to some extent recently. Furthermore, increased demand in South China and Southwest China has caused “pigs from the north to go south” and the overall price of pigs has risen significantly. Recently, the industry is still bullish towards the market and prices are likely to continue to rise.
