[ad_1]
Original title: Why did the central bank break this year’s practice this time when it launched 200 billion MLF operations on the last day of November?
All reporters Song Ge All internal reporters Xiao Shiqing All editors Yi Qijiang
On November 30, the People’s Bank of China announced that in order to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the month, it will carry out a 200 billion yuan 1-year Medium Term Loan (MLF) operation and a reverse repurchase operation. at 7 days of 150 billion yuan, with interest rates of 2.95% and 2.2 respectively. %.
It is worth noting that since the beginning of this year, the central bank has established the practice of conducting MLF operations on the 15th of each month (postponed on public holidays). And on the last day of November, the central bank broke the convention and accidentally invested 200 billion yuan in “hot powder.”
CITIC Securities chief fixed income analyst clearly believes: “The central bank’s new 200 billion yuan MLF on November 30 exceeded market expectations. On the one hand, it is to protect the liquidity environment at the end of the month already the beginning of the month and stabilize the fluctuation of DR007. The shortage of debt and the return of interest rates on interbank deposits to the operating interest rate of the MLF. The impact of previous events of credit default on liquidity, requirements of the financial stability committee for the proper functioning of the bond market and abnormal transactions in the exchange repurchase market last week, maintenance of monetary policy The intention to stabilize liquidity has been reinforced. “
The expert analysis pointed out that the implementation of the MLF operation can be taken into account in advance to facilitate the restriction of funds on December 7 Data source: Central Bank Photograph and Yang Jing Red GraphOperation MLF breaks convention at the end of the month
On November 30, the central bank announced that it will carry out a 200 billion yuan one-year MLF operation, and the interest rate will remain at 2.95%. On the same day, a 7-day reverse repurchase operation for 150 billion yuan was carried out and the interest rate remained at 2.2%. Due to the expiration of 40 billion reverse buyback that day, a net investment of 310 billion yuan was made in a single day.
Unlike in the past, the central bank conducted two MLF operations in November and, unusually, chose the month-end node, which surprised the market.
Obviously, on the one hand, the DR007 at the end of the month has always been above 2.2% since November 24, and it has maintained an uptrend. The new MLF is to keep liquidity stable at the end of the month; On the other hand, there will be 3,000 on December 7th. The MLF of 100 million yuan is due and December 7th is also the due date for the bank’s payment. Therefore, the new MLF can also be considered in advance to facilitate the restriction of funds on December 7, reducing the overlap of the expired MLF and the due date of the bank payment to the market. The impact.
The “Daily Business News” reporter noted that in the previously published “Three-Quarter Monetary Policy Implementation Report,” the central bank noted that it further strengthened the market by revealing MLF’s plan of operations for the month in advance. in the “Announcement of Open Market Commercial Transaction”. Communication, improve the transparency of monetary policy and effectively stabilize market expectations.
Mingming stated: “Since 2020, the central bank has only operated MLF around the 15th of each month, which has strengthened its positioning as a guide for LPR quotes. The launch of MLF operations at the end of this month broke the operating convention from this year, and MLF is used once again as the base currency. Execution tools are used. On the other hand, the third quarter monetary policy implementation report once again proposed “to build a modern central bank system and improve the control mechanism of the money supply.” In the context of appreciating the normal space of monetary policy, the subsequent monetary policy cuts the RRR and interest rates substantially. The operation will be more cautious, the base currency will be more supported by reverse repurchase and MLF operations, and operations Later irregularities of MLF will gradually return. “
Tracking irregular or more common operations
The journalist noted that the central bank noted in the previously published “Second Quarter Monetary Policy Implementation Report” that the MLF interest rate, as the medium-term policy interest rate, is the center of the rate operation. market interest in the medium term. Market interest rates, such as the yield curve on government bonds and interbank certificates of deposit, fluctuate around the MLF interest rate. According to data from Wind, recently, the interest rate of the one-year interbank certificate of deposit has exceeded 3.35%, which is approximately 40 basis points higher than the one-year MLF interest rate.
Obviously, he noted that the central bank has continuously renewed the MLF since August. This new MLF complements the banks’ medium-term liquidity and also focuses on alleviating the recent continuing pressure from bank debt. Since September, the one-year AAA interbank deposit issuance interest rate has risen rapidly to the one-year MLF in the context of the low overreservation rate, driven by the drop in pressure from structured deposits, centralized issuance of government bonds and the slowness of fiscal spending. The operating interest rate is above 2.95%, and the interest rate of issuance of interbank certificates of deposit to a recent year of the banks by shares reached 3.38%. The obvious deviation between the interbank deposit interest rate and the MLF operating interest rate has far exceeded the law of the central bank’s second quarter monetary policy implementation report that the interbank deposit interest rate revolves around the MLF interest rate and will also affect the interest rate trading process and the stability of the interest rate transmission mechanism. Sex.
In addition, he also noted that the weighted average interest rate on RMB loans from financial institutions and the weighted average interest rate on general loans increased in the third quarter, and the pressure on the bank’s debt has been transmitted to the interest rates on loans. Under the triple contradiction of continuing to push down structural deposits, keeping interbank certificates of deposit and MLF spreads within a reasonable and stable range, and keeping interest rates on loans relatively stable, the central bank used the FML to alleviate pressure on bank liabilities and guide the return of interest rates on certificates of deposit at the rates of the FML. The AAA interbank rate for issuing one-year certificates of deposit is also expected to reach the upper range.
“In the second half of the year, the tight balance of funds and the prominent pressure on bank liabilities have become the theme of the market. Market sentiment has always been suppressed by the high interest rate on interbank certificates of deposit At the end of November, compared to fiscal spending, the trend in interest rates for the issuance of interbank certificates of deposit increased for a time. The operation of the MLF is of notable importance. The subsequent irregular operations of the MLF will be more common. Pressure on bank liabilities and upward pressure on the interest rate on interbank certificates of deposit will also ease in the context of active central bank intervention and accelerating fiscal spending. The current 10-year national debt has reached The future rate of return has reached around 3.3%, the safety margin is outstanding, and the setting value is outstanding. It’s obvious, “Mingming said.
