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- Laura Fight
- Seoul BBC reporter
Image source,Reuters
When North Korean leader Kim Jong Un celebrated his birthday, he made a long wish list for new weapons.
It includes more accurate long-range missiles, super-large nuclear warheads, spy satellites, and nuclear-powered submarines.
The Party Congress is North Korea’s largest political conference in the past five years. The military plan announced at this time may seem like a threat, but it is in fact a threat.
But it is also a challenge. As President-elect Joe Biden prepares to take office, the timing of this information is critical.
Kim Jong Un has been promoted to general secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea, which is the party’s highest title. In the current turmoil in the United States, he is struggling to make his voice heard abroad.
If the incoming US government is still hopeful of stopping Kim Jong Un’s nuclear ambitions, now may be the time to listen.
“Kim Jong Un’s statement is certainly to emphasize to the new US administration that if it does not act quickly, North Korea will qualitatively improve its capabilities in a way that endangers the interests of the United States and South Korea,” Ankit Panda (Ankit Panda) Said he is the author of “Kim Jong-un and the bomb” (Kim Jong-un and the bomb). He thinks the Biden administration should pay attention to this.
Image source,Reuters
Kim Jong-un became General Secretary of the Labor Party at this party congress.
Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump have met three times, but have failed to reach any agreement to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons program or end the severe economic sanctions currently imposed by the United States and the United Nations on Pyongyang.
The question on the Korean peninsula is whether Biden can do better and whether he should take the threat from Kim Jong Un seriously.
“I think the president-elect should understand this on the surface and clarify as soon as possible what his government will look for in possible negotiations with North Korea,” Panda said.
“If Kim Jong Un believes that the traditional emphasis on comprehensive and complete nuclear disarmament in the United States has not changed before sanctions are relaxed, I think he will only advance nuclear tests and other activities,” he added.
In his speech to thousands of delegates in the National Congress of the Labor Party, Kim Jong Un described the United States as North Korea’s “greatest enemy”, but also added that he did not “rule out diplomatic media.”
The previous summit may have failed, but in the Great Hall of the Party Congress it was advertised as “a great book and a special event in the history of world politics.”
So if Biden wants to take advantage of previous contacts, there is still room for maneuver.
Image source,Reuters
Biden will take office as President of the United States on January 20.
But Duyeon Kim, senior associate researcher at the Center for a New American Security, said the United States must take the first step and that any deal will pay a price.
“Kim Jong-un’s request to the United States is to end the joint military exercise with Seoul, lift sanctions and avoid criticism of human rights before the talks. Washington will not do this unconditionally,” Kim said.
Even if negotiations are resumed, Kim Jong-un will charge a high price for any deal because he has always recommended cold war-style arms control negotiations in which both sides take mutual and reciprocal action. But it does not make sense because the nuclear weapons of the United States and North Korea are not adequate. Wait.”
Trump and Kim Jong-un are reported to have come close to reaching an agreement during their second meeting in Hanoi in February 2019.
But this deal is no longer on the negotiating table, and Kim Jong-un is now facing negotiations with a completely different president.
Kim Jong-un delivered this speech in an attempt to show that he has the upper hand.
It is restoring the starting point of the negotiations, not to give up its existing weapons, but to prevent them from developing new and improved weapons.
Image source,EPA
In 2019, people in Seoul, South Korea, saw news about North Korea’s missile launch.
More shooting and anger?
Not surprisingly, Kim Jong-un has the ambition to expand nuclear weapons.
But to the surprise of many people, he posted a detailed list of goals:
- Long range missile
- Nuclear submarine
- Hypersonic Slider Missile
- Military reconnaissance satellite
- Solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile
- New unmanned reconnaissance aircraft
- Super large nuclear warhead
- Tactical nuclear weapons
Of course, any new weapon must be tested and testing will bring stress.
Everyone on the peninsula remembers the “fire and rage” threat that Trump promised after North Korea conducted three long-range missile tests in 2017.
South Korea tried its best to avoid repeating the same mistakes, leading to so much hype and extreme pressure.
But Kim Jong-un is sending the battle book and you may wonder if you will get an answer.
In his speech, he even talked about how far he hopes his long-range missile can fly. He hopes they can hit a target 15,000 kilometers (9,320 miles) away.
This range will give Pyongyang sufficient capacity to attack the United States.
North Korea launched a ballistic missile called “Mars 15” in late 2017 and said the missile can hit anywhere in the United States with a nuclear warhead.
However, since the nuclear warheads must re-enter the atmosphere and deliver weapons to their targets, it is unclear whether North Korea has the technology necessary to protect the nuclear warheads.
Kim Jong-un appeared to drown on the 75th anniversary of the Labor Party parade.
As for the dream of nuclear-powered submarines, analysts believe there may still be a long way to go for the North Korean regime.
However, Panda said that North Korea “has proven surprisingly resilient in the past.”
Despite a series of deepening economic crises, Kim Jong-un managed to make significant progress on the current nuclear program.
“Even if Kim Jong Un cannot achieve all of his goals, we should not rely on his will to pressure him to start testing and manufacturing some of the aforementioned systems.”
Food crisis reports
The bigger question is how Kim Jong Un will pay for his ambitions when North Korea faces the worst economic situation in decades. Will this wish list be a paper threat?
Five years ago, Kim Jong Un promised his people economic prosperity, and these plans are now in vain.
He admitted his failure at the opening of the party congress.
Image source,fake images
The word “I’m sorry” would never be heard from his father or grandfather, but the young leader is already used to apologizing, even at a military parade last October, when he explained that his people face When people saw him cry when they saw him in a serious situation.
Nearly a year ago, North Korea closed its borders to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus from neighboring China.
Although there are many unconfirmed reports that the new coronavirus has spread in this mysterious country, Pyongyang still denies any confirmed cases.
The border blockade has affected trade with China, which has now fallen by almost 80%.
A series of typhoons and floods also destroyed important crops and homes.
According to the NK News website, supermarket shelves in the North Korean capital Pyongyang were empty. South Korean intelligence agencies said the prices of commodities like sugar have soared.
A diplomatic source told me that some items were left at the border, including medical supplies.
North Korean YouTube blogger Enya (UN A) is young and friendly, but behind her is the unaltered political propaganda of North Korea.
In the good case, they are only delayed, but in the worst case, they cannot enter the country at all. Of course, there are still strict financial penalties.
North Korea is more isolated from the world than ever.
From an internal perspective, there are signs that the informal markets that have sprung up across the country have been hit by someone trying to make extra money.
These little signs of capitalism have been tolerated for years, but now the country wants the money too.
Peter Ward, a doctoral student at the University of Vienna, studies North Korean economics closely. He said this existed before the outbreak, “some of them date back to before Kim Jong Un came to power.”
“But since 2019, we have seen the degree of hostility towards market participants and the emphasis on restoring the state retail industry, which is noteworthy and concerning,” he said.
What can we do?
South Korea has always hinted that the Biden administration should signal to Pyongyang that it is willing to speak.
In his New Year’s speech, President Moon Jae-in declared once again that he is ready to meet North Korean leaders “anytime, anywhere.”
Moon Jae-in personally greeted Kim Jong-un at the military demarcation line.
But Kim Jong-un rejected the olive branch and often excluded Seoul from the conversation. It rejected South Korea’s proposals for assistance or cooperation on COVID-19 drugs and vaccines.
NK News analyst Jeongmin Kim (transliteration) said “it is time for Seoul to lower its expectations.”
“This time, the party representative will make President Moon Jae-in realize more clearly that North Korea is not interested in such small symbolic things as inter-Korean cooperation.”
North Korean defectors appeared to explain why Kim Jong Un found it more difficult to escape North Korea after he assumed power.
“But as with the United States, North Korea did not completely close the door on Moon Jae-in, but left one condition: it almost said: let us see what you would do.
“This is a tough request. Do not side with the United States and hold hands with North Korea. Moon Jae-in cannot do this.”
“But because North Korea sees it as conditional and has not completely severed the relationship, Seoul is likely to seize this hope and can continue to do what it can: continue to issue olive branches in public health cooperation to at least control There is a risk of an explosion until the end of Moon Jae-in’s term in 2022, “said Kim Jongmin.
Therefore, all roads to an agreement seem to go through Washington. The new government has a growing and demanding list of priorities, and North Korea is just one of them and is trying to get attention.
However, most analysts believe that if the US president-elect does not respond quickly, North Korea will take action and could test ballistic missiles.
Kim Jong-un is ready. Your message now is: “Mr. President, it is your turn.”
