Next year’s CPI is likely to become “U” _ 东方 Fortune Net

Original title: The CPI is likely to become “U” next year

　　National Statistical OfficeData released on December 9 showed that in NovemberConsumer’s price index(CPI)I andDecrease 0.5%. This is the first negative year-over-year growth in the data since October 2009.

Analysts believe that as the economy gradually enters a trend, the CPI trend next year is likely to stabilize after the downtrend and maintain a moderate uptrend as a whole.

　　Two factors cause negative CPI growth

The data shows that from a month-over-month perspective, the CPI fell 0.6% in November; from a year-on-year perspective, the CPI fell 0.5%.

inBank of MinshengAccording to lead researcher Wen Bin, two factors contributed to the negative year-on-year growth of the CPI in November. One is withBase effectSince the second half of last year, the increase in the CPIpriceDriven by the rise, it continued to rise and did not begin to decline until after the Spring Festival in January this year. Second, the annual growth rate of food prices has gone from rising to falling, which has become the main reason for the unexpected drop in CPI growth.

For the next stage of price trends,CITIC valuesChief economist Zhu Jianfang believes that CPI growth still faces downward pressure in the short term, and real relief may not be until the second quarter of next year.

Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, predicts that the year-on-year rise in CPI next year is likely to show a “U-shaped” trend.

In November, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices remained stable, increasing 0.5% year-on-year, the same pace of advance for 5 consecutive months. Zhu Jianfang said negative CPI growth it does not mean a weakening of domestic fundamentals.coinThe policy is not expected to adjust.

　　demandto get betterRightPPIForm support

The data shows that in November,industryStable recovery of production,marketThe demand keeps increasing,Industrial productsPrices continue to rise. From a ring comparison, domestic industrial producers in NovemberFactory priceThe index (PPI) rose 0.5%, the largest month-on-month increase of the year. From a year-on-year perspective, the PPI fell 1.5% and the rate of decline decreased by 0.6 percentage points from last month.

“The improvement in PPI in November was in line with market expectations, driven mainly by the reduction in the price of production materials.” Wen Bin said that, on the one hand, as the national economy continues to recover, industrial production continues to improve.companyprofitConfidence in the improvement increases and the improvement in demand supports the PPI. On the other hand, internationalOil priceIt bottomed out at the end of October and the spot price of Brent crude oil per barrel rose 28.4% year-on-year in November.ProductRising prices have driven the general recovery in industrial production prices.

Zhu Jianfang predicts that PPI will continue to rise steadily in December and PPI will turn positive in the first quarter of next year. He said that since December, international oil prices have recovered and coal prices have risen. Domestic industrial demand is not expected to be weak in December. Therefore, the PPI decline is expected to be further reduced and the PPI to turn positive in the first quarter of next year.Industrial businessContinued earnings recovery helps to some extentmanufacturingBusiness investmentEndogenous growth momentum recovers and manufacturing industry next yearinvestmentIt is expected to usher in an endogenous uptrend.

(Source: Financial Investment News)

(Responsible editor: DF522)