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Original title: China’s macroeconomic policy will “stabilize” next year
Central economyjobsmeetingHeld in Beijing from December 16 to 18. Based on the spirit of the conference, China’s economy will still face many uncertainties in 2021.macropoliticalMaintain continuity, stability and sustainability, don’t take a sharp turn and understand the timeliness and effectiveness of policies. Generally speaking, next year, China’s policy will be “stable.” Several unconventional expansionary policies, as the epidemic will steadily recede in accordance with the progress of the epidemic and changes in the situation, but the intensity and pace of the withdrawal will be relatively mild.
The meeting proposed that there should be a sense of concern andBackground thinking. The meeting pointed out that there are still many uncertainties in the epidemic and the external environment, and also noted that “the world economic situation next year will continue to be complex and severe, the recovery will be unstable and uneven, and various derived risks caused by By the impact of the epidemic “. Accordingly, on the basis of the July and December Politburo meetings “to strengthen awareness of opportunities and risks,” the meeting added “increase awareness of danger,” “firm confidence in victory” and “persist in thinking. fundamental”. Improve “risk predictability and predictability” requirements.
On the basis of the meeting proposed that “macroeconomic policy should maintain continuity, stability and sustainability”, “maintain the necessary support for economic recovery, and policy operations should be more precise and effective, not make sharp turns and seize the time and effectiveness of policies “and” reasonable understanding “Statements such as” the pace and intensity of macro control “indicate that general policy will tighten and gradually withdraw in 2021, but the intensity and pace will be controlled. Specifically:
financialIn policy terms, the meeting called for “assetsFiscal policyTo improve quality and efficiency, and be more sustainable, “the 2019 conference formulation is to” vigorously improve quality and efficiency, and pay more attention to structural adjustment. “Since the epidemic, it has become” more active. and effective, focusing on practical results, “which means that next year Fiscal policy will again improve quality and efficiency before the epidemic, and the requirement to” maintain moderate spending intensity “means that next yearFiscal deficitAnd the scale of the special debts should decrease, but the magnitude should not be very great; at the same time, the main task of fiscal policy has changed since last year.salary“Ensuring the functioning and basic livelihood of people” has become “proactive in promoting technological innovation, accelerating economic restructuring and adjusting income distribution.”
coinIn terms of policy, the meeting requested “Prudent monetary policyTo be flexible, precise, reasonable and appropriate, “the 2019 meeting was called” flexible and moderate “, which has become” more flexible, moderate and precise “since the epidemic. In general, the central bank will continue to make informed decisions. at its discretion; in addition, the meeting requires “maintainingcoin supplywithsocietyFinancing scaleSame growth rateNominal economyThe growth rate basically matches “, compared to”coinSupply should match the nominal growth rate based on potential output, “indicating that the contraction in the money supply next year will not be too tight.
On regulatory policies, the December Politburo meeting called forValuesResolution of risks and prevention of incremental risks ”, this meeting emphasized“ improving the ability to predict and predict risks ”,“ solving the hidden debt risks of local governments ”,“ managing the relationship between economic recovery and risk prevention, and supplement across multiple channelsBankCapitalprincipal,PerfectLinkmarketThe “legal system” “attacks all kinds of debt evasionbehavior“Etc., indicates that next year’s risk prevention is more important than strict supervision, and the country will do everything possible to avoid the risk of risk elimination, and at the same time avoid the risk of policy retirement too fast and too fast.
2021 is a year of special importance in China’s modernization process and is the “XIV Five-Year Plan”.planningThe first year of the party was also the centenary of the founding of the party. Therefore, the macroeconomic environment for next year should remain stable and the policy direction should be stable. It is necessary to promote the economic operation to stay within a reasonable range and continue to do a good job on the “six stability” and “six guarantees”, and the policy operations should be more precise, effective and reasonable. Capture the pace and intensity of macro control.
(Source: Daily economic information)
(Responsible editor: DF522)
I solemnly declare: The purpose of this information is to spread more information, and it has nothing to do with this booth.
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