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Original caption: Thanksgiving Day, the number of new confirmed cases in the United States plummeted in a single day, the American media revealed the truth behind
Source: Getty.Overseas Network, November 27 The United States ushered in the Thanksgiving holiday. The industry estimates that about 50 million people will travel to the U.S. However, the U.S. media found that the epidemic data in the U.S. dropped dramatically around Thanksgiving. At approximately 6:30 AM on November 27 Beijing time, 82,489 new confirmed cases in the United States within 24 hours, a decrease of more than 95,000 new cases from the previous day. In response to this, American journalist Joanna Pearlstein and writer Whet Moser published an analysis article in The Atnlantic and noted: “Thanksgiving holidays caused delays in data submission. The future trend of the epidemic is almost certainly much worse than the reported number. “
The article mentioned that with the recent increase in new cases of coronary pneumonia in the United States, the influx of large-scale data has caused health departments in the United States to struggle. According to Beau J. Mitts, head of the Department of Health in Houston, USA, less than two-thirds of laboratory reports in Houston can be imported directly into the electronic system of the health department, and 35% of the data only they can be imported indirectly first into the city database. , Or report by fax.
Jessica Guernsey, director of public health in Multnomah County, Oregon, said: “We are lost in the face of huge amounts of data and it is very laborious to build a flexible data processing system.” Guernsey issued a warning that data on the epidemic continues to grow, but the data we distribute does not reflect this.
On the other hand, the publisher of The Atlantic Monthly, who is responsible for tracking the US epidemic data project, found that the holiday affected data on tests, cases, hospitalizations and deaths reported by the health department. The executive editor of the project, Erin Kissane, mentioned that the epidemic data reported on Sunday and Monday (actually, the data collected on Saturday and Sunday) is usually a few percentage points lower than usual, resulting in Reasons for this delay include the closure of the doctor’s office on weekends or a shortage of health department staff during the holidays, leading directly to a reduction in the number of tests, fewer confirmed cases, and less data entered. To the Internet system.
“Especially now, the American people mistakenly believe that the decline in the number of new cases makes their Thanksgiving meal safe.” But Quest Diagnostics, an independent medical laboratory in the United States, explained: “It’s just the increase in demand. This caused a delay in processing the results.”
The article noted that the current situation in the United States is that the Thanksgiving holiday has caused a delay in data submission, which may bring a sense of short-term security for the American people, but the future trend of the epidemic will almost certainly be much worse than the reported number. “The report will be structurally delayed, but the new coronavirus will not. If the statistical pattern of the epidemic in the United States remains unchanged, the relevant data will peak next week. No one can predict with certainty how long it will take to appear. the accumulation of holidays, but the truth is that in the current severe period of the epidemic, the number of tests, confirmed cases and deaths will increase rapidly and will last several days. “
Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University in the United States, believes: “Offline epidemic data may spike anytime after Thanksgiving. Although some health officials advise Americans to expect to be at home, for those For those who have to visit grandmother, the condition can take more than a week to manifest. “
“The cycle of infected people after being exposed to the new coronavirus is generally about five days, sometimes even up to two weeks. Some people have no symptoms after infection. If they have symptoms, it will take a few days to organize the test. of the virus. And get the results. ” Rasmussen said: “I predict that one week after Thanksgiving, the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States will increase significantly, and the delay in the number of hospitalized cases will be two to three weeks. After another two or three weeks, death will occur. Case details will be highlighted. “
Rasmussen also warned that under pressure from the current American medical system, hospitalization is also very dangerous. “You will find that you cannot get the treatment you normally need. It is really scary.” Rasmussen said: “Today, people are not only at risk of contracting a new coronary pneumonia. The chances of emergency surgery, such as inflammation, injuries from car accidents, etc., will increase.”
“Case reports of death are more challenging, and new deaths from new coronary pneumonia may appear in the United States related to Thanksgiving at Christmas.” Ellie Murray, assistant professor of epidemiology at Boston University School of Public Health, USA) added: “It takes time to confirm and report deaths, and staff tracking these numbers generally take a break during the holidays. It may not be until January that we can really understand what happened on Thanksgiving Day in America. ” Zhu Huiyue)
