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Original title: A-share “Good start” to the New Year: Shanghai stock index stands at 3,500 points and spring market begins
A-share “good start” in 2021!
On January 4, the first trading day of the new year, the fierce offensive on the last trading day of 2020 continued, with the two cities’ trading volume exceeding one trillion.
On that day, the Shanghai Index rose to 3,500 points, the highest since January 2018. At the close, the Shanghai Stock Index rose 0.86% to 3502.96 points. On that day, the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index reached a 5-year high since July 2015. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.47% to 14,827.47 points; the ChiNext index rose 3.77% to 3,078.11 points.
From an industry perspective, the electrical equipment, agriculture, forestry, livestock and fishing, military industry and non-ferrous metals sectors led earnings. The Shenwan Grade I Industrial Index showed an increase of 7.37%, 6.86%, 6.01 and 5.43%, respectively.
Particularly outstanding performances include new energy vehicles, liquor, food and beverage, pork, military, non-ferrous metals and other sectors. Among them, the new energy (automotive) + consumption performance is the most dazzling, the first day of the new year is jokingly called the “drunk driving” market.
The A-share index is primarily driven by a group of industry-leading stocks, deducting the “strong man Hengqiang” market: CATL increased 15.09%, with a market value of more than 900 billion; Longji shares increased by more than 8.57%, with a market value of almost 380 billion; Arowana rose more than 14.06% and its market value exceeded 670 billion.
Kweichow Moutai once hit a new record, standing at 2,000 yuan / share, and the highest intraday reached 2004.99 yuan / share. Wuliangye’s share price hit 300 yuan, a record. At the close of the market, the daily limit of Laobaiganjiu, Jiuguijiu and Shuijingfang, Luzhou Laojiao, Jinhuijiu and Yilite increased by more than 6%, and Yingjia Gongjiu, Qinghai Barley Wine, ST Shede and others increased by more than 5%.
The restless spring market begins
Institutions generally believe that the spring market has started.
“On the first trading day of 2021, A shares got off to a good start, Shanghai and Shenzhen shares rose, new energy leading stocks and consumer stocks continued to lead the two markets’ gains, continuing the uptrend. pre-holiday, and the effect of market earnings was relatively obvious. ” Said Yang Delong, chief economist at the Haikaiyuan Fund.
Wei Fengchun, Boshi Fund’s chief macro-strategist, also believes that “with the accelerated growth of the group’s sector represented by new energy vehicles and liquor in the past two weeks, the ‘spring unrest’ market may have started in 2021.”
“This round of ‘spring market’ already started in December. Looking ahead to January, we remain relatively optimistic,” said Deng Yuxiang, head of the Furong Fund’s capital investment department.
“The market got off to a good start on the first day of the new year. Among them, the new energy sector performed strongly. In the event of extreme fund relaxation, many previously strong sectors have risen dramatically. With high liquidity current on the market, the entire first quarter is expected The market will perform better than expected. We are very optimistic about the new energy industry. This year, domestic new energy vehicles are expected to double the growth rate. The new industry energy will start a growth cycle of 5 to 10 years. Energy will become the core of the market, “said Li Shixian, research director at Rongshu Investment.
Many institutions are also optimistic about the market outlook.
“Now that the A-share market continues to rally and the spring offensive is launched, there are still many structural opportunities,” Yang Delong said.
Yang Delong believes that in the new year, the Shanghai Composite Index will continue to expand upward. The increase may not be large, around 10-20%, but there are still many structural opportunities. For value investors, 2021 is still an investment year.
Yang Delong believes that the reason behind the optimistic market is that on the one hand, from a macroeconomic perspective, China’s economic growth rate will recover sharply in 2021. Especially in the first quarter of this year, due to the low base, the GDP growth rate may rise to more than 14%, which will bring a spring offensive, and the annual GDP growth rate will rise to more than 9%. On the other hand, from a monetary policy perspective, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed that there will be no sharp turn in monetary policy in 2021. This also means that there is no need to worry too much about the tightening of monetary policy in 2021. In addition, the process of transferring household savings to the capital market will continue.
Hu Bo, manager of the Future Star Fund of Private Equity Ranking, believes that under the condition of unreliable liquidity, the market unanimously anticipates the market in the first quarter and gains more enthusiasm.
“The current market logic is difficult to falsify in the short term, and related industries are in a period of high profitability when profits improve significantly. As long as subsequent performance can meet market expectations, current valuations will assimilate. healthy and the stock price trend will continue to grow steadily for a long time, said Song Haiyue, Principal Investigator at Longying Fortune Assets.
However, some institutions are cautious about the market outlook.
“The later the NPC and the CPPCC, the market is concerned about the risk of a real credit crunch. Shock or replay, hold active positions to cope, the current position is a long window period before the NPC and CPPCC “Wei Fengchun said.
“Today, the Shanghai index exceeded 3,500. After all, it is an important threshold. There should be repeats and the proper band operations can be carried out,” said Li Kejie, CEO of Quanhong Private Equity Fund.
“They should be more cautious this year, because after all, the epidemic is not completely over and uncertainty still exists. We suggest paying more attention to some industries that are booming, such as consumer, photovoltaic, wind and energy. semiconductor upstream. ” Shangdegu Said Zhao Lisong, president of the investment.
Lin Jiayi, CEO of Xuanjia Finance, believes that the New Year’s Eve market launch in the context of credit easing is very safe. However, in this context, he is concerned that the funds will be the same as in 2015, with speculation on the subject showing a highly speculative state. “Investors must be very cautious. Once these hedge funds are dispersed, they will find permanent losses in their capital.”
Holding a group and looking for a depression
In 2021, fund managers have different investment directions.
Some fund managers remain bullish on institutional holdings.
“The lucrative effect in 2021 will continue to be concentrated in white horse stocks, including consumption of white horse stocks, new energy and leading technology stocks. The Three Musketeers'” liquor, medicine, food and beverage “consumption remains the focus of the market. Some emerging consumptions, such as duty-free stores, New retail and consumer electronics will also be the focus of investment in 2021, “said Yang Delong.
The CEIBS Fund is bullish on electronics, the real estate industry chain, new energy vehicles, high-end consumption (spirits, medical beauty, fitness, insurance); expects that after 2021, market performance growth in high-certainty growth sectors, such as new energy and military industry, will increase. Partially digested its high valuation, so attention should be paid to profitable growth stocks.
Hu Bo believes that the new energy vehicle, consumer, military and non-ferrous metals sectors with a determined performance are among the main winners, and the structural market of institutional groups continues. January is expected to continue to be a structural market, the market will continue to focus on determined performing industrial sectors, and the scarce core assets will continue to perform well.
And some fund managers are looking for valuation slumps.
Li Kejie said: “We now have a heavier position and have invested in Hong Kong stocks. Hong Kong stocks are currently a global depression that deserves attention and investment.”
And Lin Jiayi said, “We will not focus on small companies that are subject to hype or overvaluation. We continue to focus on low-value, high-growth companies, especially Hong Kong stocks. Currently, many valuations are at the bottom of the market. history and the growth rate is 20%.% Of outstanding companies “.
“Our current main setup is defense, focusing primarily on securities lending to fully hedge under the net to create new ones. Lower value investment positions are overlaid on the net to create new portfolios of strategic low positions to build a package of undervalued wallets, “Lin Jiayi said.
Lin Jiayi suggested that investors should pay special attention to the comprehensive return that valuation and growth generates, and should maintain a cautious attitude and control their positions in the process of bull markets.
“Today is the ‘good start’ market for this spring, and there should be some performance in the market in January this year,” said Zhao Lisong.
Zhao Lisong said: “We have added some positions before, and the current position is around 50%. Because we are more concerned about the influence of the United States and the national currency and other macro policy changes. This year should be more cautious. The characteristics of this year’s market are very. It is possible that the market for institutional shares will continue, but that some funds are now separated from individual shares from institutional shares, which will give some boost to other sectors and individual shares. “
He Jinlong, CEO of Umily Investment, said: “We continued to buy low oversold targets last week and our positions are set to go up. Going forward, industry differentiation and individual stock differentiation will also intensify as the price rises. Index. Investors may pay attention to some undervalued sectors. And businesses. “
There are also agencies that suggest a two-pronged approach. Wei Fengchun suggested: “In terms of structure, while maintaining the core position allocation for the procyclical non-ferrous / chemical / financial sector, increase the allocation for the military and new energy vehicle sectors. In particular, the military sector does not It only has relatively reasonable valuations, but also has a rising January schedule. It is recommended to focus on the effect. “
(Author: Pang Huawei)
