New variants of coronavirus stormed Beijing to determine its impact and the scale of the epidemic, it will take time | Beijing_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Original title: New mutants of the coronavirus stormed Beijing, it will take time to judge their impact and the scale of the epidemic

　　“It is impossible to judge the magnitude of this epidemic

　　The most urgent task is to do a good job of testing, isolation and other measures that need to be taken.“

　　Our reporter / Peng Danni Du Wei

　　The previous round of cluster infections in Beijing’s Shunyi district has yet to be completely eliminated, and the British mutant strain has attacked Daxing district. From 0:00 to 24:00 on January 17, Beijing added 2 newly confirmed local cases, all living in Tiangongyuan Street, Daxing District. The first case was that of a 63-year-old woman who had to leave Beijing for a nucleic acid test on January 16, and the test result was found the next day to be infected with the new coronavirus. Case 2 worked in a newspaper, used the subway to get around to get off work and visit friends many times, and was the son-in-law of the aforementioned case.

　　Before January 16, there had been no new confirmed cases in Daxing for 200 days. Since December last year, many local epidemics reported in Beijing have not affected the area. In the four days from 17 to 20, there were 14 new coronavirus infections in the Ronghui community of Tiangongyuan, Daxing District, of which 12 were confirmed cases and 2 were asymptomatic infections.

Someone suspects symptoms since January 5, but needs tests like antibodies

　　Jiang Qingwu, an epidemiologist and former dean of the Fudan University School of Public Health, said in an interview with China News Weekly that the first case of infection was discovered during active testing, which is good. In this way, the epidemic can be prevented and controlled. Start a little earlier. But from this it can also be inferred that before and after it there will be a certain number of infected that will appear, this number is not one case or two cases.

　　The southern gate of the Ronghui community, Tiangongyuan Street, is only 500 meters from Tiangongyuan Subway Station, which is the southern terminus of the Daxing Line. There are also large shopping malls like “Daxing Tianjie” and “Capital Mall” around the community. And reviewing the information currently circulating about the infected people, it was also found that most of them had recently gone to the CapitaMall shopping center, took line 4 or line 10 of the subway and so on.

　　“These infected people have a very wide range of activities in recent days, which has also brought some problems for prevention and control,” said Jiang Qingwu, I hope they wear masks when they go out, in the subway and on the bus. The people who knew them were also well protected. If these people are negligent, it may be more than the current number of infections, and concern about the Beijing epidemic remains necessary.

　　It is worth noting that, judging by the information currently circulating about infected people, some people are suspected of having symptoms as of January 5. A confirmed case on the 19th was 1, 40 years old, living in Ronghui Community, Tiangongyuan Street, Daxing District, and working as a referee for a competition outside of Beijing. The patient reported that since January 5, symptoms such as fatigue and cough have been presented successively, and he took the medicine by himself without going to the doctor, the result of the nucleic acid test was positive on January 18. His colleague, Case 2, lives in Nanxinzhuanghu Village, Beiwu Town, Shunyi District. He reported having muscle aches, headaches, and other symptoms since January 11, and that a nucleic acid test was performed on January 18. The result was positive the next. day.

　　Another infected person (43 years old), who was also a referee for a competition outside of Beijing, had visited one of the aforementioned cases many times and reported developing symptoms such as nasal pain on January 13. However, on December 30, 2020, due to the need to travel to Beijing, he had a nucleic acid test, which at that time was still negative. When it was retested in the January 18 screening, the result was positive.

　　An authorized China CDC expert who did not want to be named told China News Weekly that it is not yet possible to determine whether symptoms such as fatigue and cough in Case 1 on January 5 were caused by the new crown, because many people infected with the new corona virus Symptoms are not specific. If these symptoms are really caused by the new crown, then it is necessary to judge the people with whom you contact and the manner of contact. If you are in close contact with many people in a very small space like the “health lecturer” in Jilin, then the spread is definitely strong and it is possible to become a super spreader; conversely, some infected people will not spread. He emphasized that “it is impossible to judge the magnitude of this round of epidemic, and this type of prediction does not make sense. The most urgent thing is to do a good job of testing, isolation and other measures that must be taken.”

　　Jiang Qingwu also believes that it is impossible to judge whether the epidemic has spread before, and has to use evidence to speak. He suggested that these infected people and even their close contacts should not only check the nucleic acid, but also the antibody to make a comprehensive judgment. There are two subtypes of antibodies: IgG and IgM. IgM is an important indicator of acute or recent viral infection and usually begins to be positive between 3 and 5 days after the onset of illness. IgG is produced 10-15 days after infection and can remain in the bloodstream for a long time. If someone detects that the antibody is IgG, it means that the spread has been for some time.

　　Currently, Daxing has taken the necessary measures. Among the 7 cases recently confirmed on the 19th, there was a 9-year-old student. Wang Youguo, deputy secretary of the Daxing District Party Committee and mayor, stated that 17 centralized isolation points were urgently opened to implement centralized isolation for all teachers and students of the school where the case was located, and all students, teachers and school staff. school where the case was located were subjected to nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs. Blood, anal swab and serum tests were completed on 1,298 people and 5192 samples were collected.

　　A resident of the Ronghui community on Tiangongyuan Street also told China News Weekly that the unit where the confirmed case was located had performed an antibody test. “One of the units in one building was required to be quarantined in the middle of the night, and a unit in the other building underwent four inspections that included throat swabs, anal swabs, nasal swabs, and serum, and entered the house at the same time in the kitchen. Environmental sampling for key parts like, toilets, etc., “he wrote on social media.

　　The scale of the epidemic caused by the mutant strain is still unknown.

　　Pang Xinghuo, deputy director of the Beijing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, presented at a press conference on the afternoon of January 20 that, on January 19, the Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention conducted a comprehensive genome analysis. of the two cases. of new coronavirus samples from confirmed local cases reported on January 17. Sequencing and analysis. The results suggest that the two virus cases belong to branch 1 of the European L genotype family (B.1.1.7), which is the same chain of transmission.

　　B.1.1.7 was reported in the UK in mid-December. As of January 8, 2021, 45 countries and regions around the world had discovered the epidemic of this mutant virus. Beijing is the fourth place in the country where a publicly reported infection of the new variant strain of the British crown was found. Earlier this month, Shanghai, Guangdong and Shandong also found such mutant strains in imported British cases.

　　The WHO estimates that the infectivity of B.1.1.7 has increased between 40% and 70%, and the transmission rate will reach between 1.5 and 1.7, which is 0.4 to 0.6 higher. than the transmission rate of the original new coronavirus 1.1. The most direct basis for these estimates comes from the rapid increase in the number of confirmed new crowns in the UK in the short term.

　　Feng Zijian, deputy director of the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, also attended the Beijing epidemic press conference on the 20th. He presented that currently, international surveillance and research has found that the ability Transmission of these mutant viruses has increased, and the scope of transmission is gradually expanding. However, these mutations have not been found to have caused changes in the pathogenicity and virulence (severity of the disease) of the virus, and no significant changes have been found in the antigenicity of the virus. Laboratory studies have also shown that these mutant viruses have not significantly affected human immunity established by natural infection and vaccination.

　　In the UK, the mutant virus B.1.1.7 was first discovered in September 2020. In November, about a quarter of new corona infection cases in London were related to the mutant virus. But Jiang Qingwu said the UK did not start reporting on this mutant virus strain until December 2020, but this season comes just in time for Christmas, New Years, etc. People frequent shopping, bars and other occasions, these social distancing, control and other Measures The variable is not easy to control and the incidence rate has been increasing throughout the West during the same period.

　　“The virus mutation is safe. However, the UK has not yet reached a good conclusion on the reasons for the increased transmission of the virus. The effect of the mutation on the pathogenicity of patients with new crowns requires observation. “. and there is no direct evidence … “Jiang Qingwu said. Compared to the mutation of the virus, he believes that what is more concerning is that some people have discovered infections during active inspections, and there are so many cases around them to the What is the overall magnitude of the epidemic in Beijing? It will take time to answer.

　

Editor in Charge: Li Siyang