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One month after the decision to extend the new energy vehicle subsidy policy for two years, the rules for new energy vehicle subsidies in 2020 formally landed.On April 23, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the “Notice on Improving the Promotion and Application of Subsidy Policies financing for new energy vehicles “(called” Notice “).
It stipulates that the amount of subsidies from 2020 to 2022 will be reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% on the basis of 2019. However, compared to the amount of subsidy withdrawal, the new “mark of 300,000” in the subsidy rules has attracted more attention and discussion.
According to the “Notice”, the pre-subsidy price of the new energy passenger cars benefiting from the subsidy must be less than 300,000 yuan (including 300,000 yuan), but the “electricity replacement mode” vehicles are not subject to this regulation. This means that models over 300,000 yuan will be disqualified from receiving subsidies. According to statistics from the Economic Observation Network reporters, there are more than 10 electric models with more than 300,000 yuan currently on the market and they will be released this year.
Unsurprisingly, due to the impact of this policy, the industry focused on Tesla for the first time. Tesla Model3 is the new advocate for electric vehicle sales in March, but its price is over 300,000 yuan, so it cannot be subsidized. However, some new car manufacturers quickly pointed out that the new pricing rules may lead Tesla to lower prices, which will have a greater impact on national brands and will bring further evidence to the profitability of technology, cost and the survival of the latter.
While the “300,000 yuan price threshold” brought a new round of harbinger of competition, the new regulations further confirmed the affirmation and encouragement of the “energy exchange model” and restrictions on the scale of production and sales. The “Notice” shows that the vehicle model exchange subsidy is not subject to the 300,000 yuan price limit, and as of 2020, the number of new energy passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle companies requesting liquidation in a single statement must reach 10,000 and 1,000, respectively. The regulations are considered a comprehensive assessment of the technical route, business model, production capacity, and product competitiveness of automotive companies. Obviously, under the same measure, although subsidies continue to be issued, speeding up the phase-out and integration of new energy vehicles has become the main direction of the new subsidy policy in the next two years.
“Double-edged sword” with a threshold of 300,000 yuan
The Ministry of Finance’s interpretation of the “Notice” shows that the reason the new subsidy policy sets the threshold for “new energy passenger car prices must be below 300,000 yuan” is to resort to the international practices to prevent large amounts of grant funds from flowing to luxury consumption. Under the regulations, the price limit for subsidized vehicles will be implemented after the transition period (July 22).
According to Economic Observer statistics, there are around 8 models that are priced at more than 300,000 yuan before subsidy, which are Tesla Model3, Polestar2, Beijing Mercedes-Benz EQC, Future Car, Baowo BXi7, In addition to some range models high from Tengshi X, some high-end models from BYD Tang and some high-end models from Guangzhou Automobile New Energy AionLX. Among the models to be released this year, Skyrim ME7, Byton M-byte and Xiaopeng P7 are some of the high-end models that cost more than 300,000 yuan. In principle, these models will not be able to enjoy subsidies due to the new regulations, and their performance in the market is also considered affected.
But the industry predicts that the impact of the “300,000 threshold” will far exceed literal understanding. The industry predicts that under the new subsidy regulations, some models may change their pricing strategies after the transition period to obtain relevant subsidies. Taking the currently fashionable Tesla Model 3 as an example, if its starting price drops from the current 338,300 yuan to less than 300,000 yuan, the standard resistance model subsidy price will be less than 277,500 yuan, and this will form “Double-edged sword effect. On the one hand, Tesla’s price cut can save new car owners 46,000 yuan before and after, helping to attract more people to accept electric vehicles, but on the other hand, Tesla’s threat to other national competitors will be greater.
“Tesla’s gross profit margin in China reaches 30%, it is entirely possible to adapt to the new (policy) changes, but it will have a greater impact on some joint ventures and new electric vehicles of high-end brands.” After the launch of the new subsidy policy, Xiaopeng He Xiaopeng, president of the car, immediately said in the circle of friends. He also feels that the crisis is the ideal CEO of the car, Li Xiang, “(The new subsidy policy) designing a subsidy threshold of 300,000 is basically helping Tesla beat national brands of pure electricity. Think about it if you are Tesla , and you’ll know what to do next and how to put a price on it. ” On the night of April 23, he commented on his Weibo.
In the interpretation of the “Notification”, the Ministry of Finance pointed out that in the implementation of the “subsidies of 300,000 yuan and lower models”, the total amount of sales tax invoices and the official guide price of the products is will use as a reference. . Companies with illegal operations and subsidies will be treated in accordance with the relevant regulations. It is worth noting that the “Notice” has exempted models with more than 300,000 yuan, but adopts the “power exchange mode”, that is, they can still enjoy subsidies; This is seen as a stimulus for new business models such as “electricity exchange”.
The first beneficiary of this “exemption clause” is considered Weilai Automobile. Currently, the prices of its products are more than 300,000 yuan, but the battery has adopted the “replacement” mode. After the new subsidy policy was launched, Weilai Automobile first launched the brand’s new 2020 car subsidy program, indicating that users who own used cars on May 31, 2020 can enjoy the subsidy according to the 2019 national standard. Wei Lai took over. Taking the ES8 as an example, its 84KWh model in 2019 has a subsidy of 25,000 yuan, but in 2020 it is only 22,500 yuan. Weilai Automobile needs to bear the 25,000 yuan difference.
In fact, since last year, relevant ministries and commissions have repeatedly advocated promoting the electric vehicle replacement model, but currently only two major electric vehicle companies, Weilai Automobile and BAIC New Energy, have adopted this model, but BAIC New Energy currently sells models. The price did not exceed 300,000 yuan. Then, if the new subsidy policy will attract more new energy vehicle companies to join the energy exchange model field, it has also become one of the new directions of interest to the industry.
Accelerate elimination and integration
The Notice also limits for the first time the number of annual subsidies and the number of vehicle companies that declare and liquidate vehicles in a single application. Under the regulations, in principle, the maximum annual subsidy size for 2020-2022 is approximately 2 million vehicles, and the number of new energy passenger vehicle companies requesting settlement in a single statement should reach 10,000 vehicles.
Regarding the practice of setting a limit on the 2 million vehicle scale, the Ministry of Finance explained that this is an internationally accepted method, leading to the orderly withdrawal of subsidies when the scale expands. Under this model, the subsidy will adopt a “first come, first served” mechanism, that is, if more than 2 million vehicles are subsidized within a year, the following consumers will no longer enjoy the subsidy.
“In terms of specific operations, according to the new energy vehicle registration data, when the annual sales volume is close to 2 million vehicles, the four ministries and commissions will issue an advance notice to clarify the timing of the adjustment of the subsidy standards, “said the Ministry of Finance in the interpretation of the” Notice “.
Will this result in partial grants that are not eligible for grants? In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Association of Passenger Car Information, said that according to the growth trend of new energy vehicles, the subsidy ceiling of 2 is not expected to be reached this year. millions of vehicles. Data shows that 1,206 million new energy vehicles were sold in 2019, and affected by the decline in the car market and the pneumonia epidemic, Rees Strategic Positioning Consulting predicted that sales of new energy vehicles in 2020 will be 80 -90% in 2019. However, whether the subsidy coverage rate for new energy vehicles in 2021 and 2022 can reach 100% depends on actual sales of new energy vehicles.
Under the new “first order of arrival” mechanism of previous subsidies, the provisions on the single declaration of the lower limit of the number of vehicles for liquidation by companies are considered unfavorable for some new car companies that are still increasing their sales , and the edge of low utilization capacity. Auto companies. The “Notice” states that starting in 2020, the number of new energy passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle companies requesting liquidation in a single return will reach 10,000 and 1,000 respectively; After the subsidy policy ends, companies that do not meet the number of settlement vehicles will be arrange final settlement.
Sales data in 2019 shows that among new automakers, only Weilai Automobile, Weimar Automobile, and Xiaopeng Automobile have annual sales of more than 10,000 units, while other new car companies such as Zero-Running Cars and Yundu Automobile have sales. Thousands of vehicles per year, which will inevitably disadvantage the subsidy settlement order. To develop new energy vehicle companies, the timeliness of subsidies is crucial. However, as new product delivery progresses, sales by some new car manufacturers may improve this year.
“One of the directions of the new subsidy policy is to support superiority and strength, establish a threshold for liquidation, promote bigger and stronger companies, accelerate the withdrawal of production capacity backwards and increase industrial concentration” , said the Ministry of Finance in the interpretation of the “Notice”.
It is worth noting that, at the technical threshold that was emphasized earlier, the new subsidy policy has remained basically stable and said that in 2020, most technical indicators, such as the energy density of the battery system, were not will adjust. Technical indicators from 2021 to 2022 indicate that the new policy should remain stable in principle and adequately adjusted in accordance with technological progress and industrial development.
However, in 2020, the subsistence mile index increased from 250 kilometers to 300 kilometers. Under the new subsidy policy, models with a cruising range of less than 300 kilometers will no longer benefit from subsidies. In 2019, those with a cruising range of 250 kilometers to 300 kilometers can still enjoy a subsidy of 18,000 yuan.
It is worth noting that this subsidy withdrawal still provides a certain buffer time. The notice stated that April 23, 2020 to July 22, 2020 is the transition period. During the transition period, sales of listed vehicles that meet the requirements of the 2019 technical indicators but do not meet the requirements of the 2020 technical indicators will be subsidized 0.5 times in accordance with the corresponding standard of the “Notice on further improvement of the application of financial subsidy policies for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles “, which is in line with 2020 The sales of listed vehicles required by the indicators will be subsidized according to the 2020 standard.
