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Original title: All parties win more than they lose
Since 0:00 a.m. on November 10, Moscow time, a week has passed since the implementation of a comprehensive ceasefire agreement in the Nagorno-Karabakh (Naka) region. The Russian Defense Ministry announced on the 14th that Russian peacekeepers completed the deployment of 20 peacekeeping observation points along the “conflict contact line” in the Naka region and began patrolling in the areas of responsibility north and south of the Naka region. The military conflict that lasted more than a month ended in the Naka region and calm was restored. In this conflict that has just ended, what are the gains and losses for all parties involved?
Armenia: tough decisions
Under the comprehensive ceasefire agreement, Azerbaijan can continue to hold the currently occupied territory in the Naka region; Armenia must return the Kerbaja district to Azerbaijan before November 15 and the Lachin district before December 1. The Lachin Corridor, which is 5 kilometers wide, is reserved to ensure direct contact between the Naka region and Armenia. In addition, Armenia should also hand over the Agdam district and part of the Gazakh district land it occupies before November 20. In the next three years, plans will be drawn up to build a new communication line along the Lachin Corridor to ensure the link between Stepanakert and Armenia.
At the beginning of the conflict between Asia and Afghanistan, there was a disparity in military power. Turkey’s strong support for Azerbaijan caused Armenia to withdraw in the war. With the loss of Shusha, the strategic center of the Naka region, Armenia has “withdrawn” in this conflict. If the war continues, Armenia will most likely lose the entire Naka. In short, a rapid ceasefire should be the most favorable outcome for Armenia today. Although it is obvious from the agreement that Armenia has withdrawn and “lost” most of the territory of the Naka region, Armenia has no better option.
Azerbaijan: just accept it
After the signing of the ceasefire agreement, there was much applause in Azerbaijan, which means that Azerbaijan has obtained a “commemorative” victory in the competition for the Naka region that has lasted more than 100 years. The victory on the battlefield originally made the Azerbaijani army appear capable of winning the chase, but due to the decisive influence on the Russian side, Azerbaijan “had to” agree to sign a ceasefire agreement.
Since the outbreak of the current round of the Naga conflict, Russia has always played the role of mediator of “cautious words and deeds”, calling for and mediating a ceasefire on both sides, without substantial intervention in the war situation. But Azerbaijan is also well aware that Russia and Asia have signed a security treaty. When Armenia asked Russia for help, Russia also gave a clear answer: if the fighting extends to Armenian territory, Russia will provide Armenia with the “necessary” assistance. . Therefore, due to pressure from Russia, Azerbaijan agreed to sign a comprehensive ceasefire agreement. There’s a last resort, and it’s not a smart “get it when you see it” measure.
Generally speaking, Azerbaijan has gained a lot from this conflict. On the one hand, the United Arab Emirates has obtained absolute control over most of Naqqa; On the other hand, through the victory in this conflict, the UAE has also effectively transferred the internal conflicts caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the economic recession. Unite people’s hearts.
Turkey: fame and fortune
In this round of the Naka conflict, in addition to Azerbaijan and Armenia, the other two protagonists are external forces Russia and Turkey.
Turkey has intervened prominently since the beginning of the conflict and, in the end, Turkey has gained fame and fortune. The Naqqa ceasefire is, of course, a diplomatic victory for Russia, but also a victory for Turkey. Through this “participation in the war” in the form of support for Azerbaijan, Turkey successfully opened the way to the Caucasus and strengthened its participation, presence and influence in the Caucasus. At the same time, Turkey has also contained Russia’s actions in the Middle East and the Mediterranean. At a more macro level, Turkey has also consolidated its leadership position in the Turkish-speaking League of Nations, and its dream of the “Ottoman Empire” seems clearer.
Russia: pros and cons
The signing of the Naka Armistice Agreement is undoubtedly a major victory for Russian diplomacy. On the one hand, Russia has demonstrated its ability to control the crisis in the Caucasus; on the other hand, Russia has stationed peacekeeping troops in the Naka region, which has reinforced its military presence in the Caucasus. From a moral point of view, Russia helped Armenia at a critical moment and also allowed Armenia to understand who its true friends are. This result, of course, helps prevent, at least delay, Armenia’s fall to NATO and the West.
It seems that Russia is the biggest winner with the signing of Naka’s total ceasefire agreement. However, this judgment is not always true. First, from the perspective of the future, the ceasefire agreement actually recognizes Naqa as Azerbaijani territory. In the future, once Russia ends its peacekeeping operations in the region, Naqa will fall under the control of Azerbaijan. If this happens, Armenia will definitely lose confidence in Russia and will most likely turn to the West. Second, the national pneumonia epidemic in Russia’s new crown has not been effectively controlled. Under the double blow of the epidemic and the drop in international oil prices, Russia’s economic situation has continued to decline. Long-term military and garrison operations in the Naka region are also a considerable economic burden for Russia, although it can be considered a “sweet burden”. Third, Turkey has strengthened its penetration and presence in the Caucasus region and has become a major player in the region. For Russia, they are absolutely reluctant for this to happen. Now they have to “indulge” and tolerate it, but in the future, the “please ask God to give it away” situation is likely.
The resolution of the current round of the Naka conflict is a boon for the region and the local population. All stakeholders must have their own algorithms for their gains and losses in disputes. What the outside world sees is that when the conflict between small countries and the game between large countries intertwine, who is the chess piece and who is the chess player, and where can they really be said?
(The author is a Research Associate at the Central Mediterranean Research Institute of Zhejiang University of International Studies)
Special Author Kong Lin Source: China Youth Daily
Version 09 on November 19, 2020
