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Multiple risks from hurricanes, wildfires and epidemics put America to the test
International war “epidemic” operation
Internal reporter Zhang Jiaxin
Recently, the super hurricane “Laura” (Laura) swept through the southern states of Louisiana and Texas. Wildfires also threaten the western United States. Millions of Americans face multiple natural disaster risks during the pandemic. Under normal circumstances, evacuation and shelter requirements triggered by natural disasters are quite difficult to be compatible with the social distancing policy against the novel coronavirus.
Ali Mostafavi, a researcher at Texas A&M University in the United States, said that at the beginning of the new corona pneumonia epidemic, they launched a study on the impact of the pandemic on urban systems during natural disasters and adopted the 2017 study. Related methods during Hurricane Harvey in 1984. The results show that compound disasters have very complex consequences.
Avoid disasters or cause infection risks
Sandro Gallia, dean of the Boston University School of Public Health, believes that the methods for mitigating multiple risks are contradictory in many respects. For example, we allow people to maintain social distancing to avoid viral infections, but moving people indoors to avoid hurricanes makes it quite difficult to maintain social distancing.
In August 2017, Hurricane Harvey once struck the Houston area in the United States. In the three days leading up to Harvey’s attack, due to concerns about an item shortage caused by the storm, gas stations and grocery stores in Texas were jammed with residents refueling and buying water and food, causing stores to grocery stores and gas stations in the Houston area will visit. The frequency has increased by 50% -100%.
In August of this year, when Hurricane Laura approached the coastal areas of Louisiana and Texas, the situation for residents became more complicated. The rise in confirmed cases and deaths from new coronavirus in the southern United States means that people must isolate themselves and restrict social activities to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus. They can also choose to wear masks in the store, but when the store is crowded, it becomes more difficult to maintain the doctor’s recommended 6-foot distance. Studies have shown that the amount of virus and how long a person is exposed to the virus have an impact on whether they are infected and the severity of the infection.
For the United States government and local residents, the most serious “complication” is evacuation.
Faced with a single wildfire or hurricane hazard, evacuating is very difficult, not to mention the multiple natural disasters and current pandemics.
Mostafavi said: “At the shelter, people can face prolonged power outages and the inability to use key equipment. However, when emergency shelters are the best option, the current situation is more complicated because when many people are grouped together , they are more likely to have close contact with people infected with the new corona pneumonia virus. “
Facing multiple disasters, which areas are most vulnerable
When deciding on mandatory evacuation and voluntary evacuation, US authorities will evaluate many variables. Faced with the new corona epidemic, they must now consider the spread of the virus on a larger scale, not just what happened in emergency shelters. When large numbers of people move from areas with a high incidence of disease to less affected areas, local people may face an increased risk of infection.
The Texas A&M University laboratory in the United States has created an interactive map to study why certain regions are so vulnerable when faced with multiple risks. The purpose is to enable emergency management responders and decision makers to recognize the COVID-19 pandemic. The compound risk brought by the convergence of epidemics and natural disasters.
The researchers noted that they use a composite risk index to consider social, personal and pandemic risks at the local level. Studying this index will help each region to make more informed decisions. The index also includes warnings for vulnerable groups (such as the elderly and low-income communities), as these groups may be at higher risk of infection than the general population.
Several counties with significantly higher levels of compound risk, such as Harris County, Texas, where Houston is located, have large numbers of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia. At the same time, it is also vulnerable to hurricanes. When a hurricane hits the area, the composite risk index will show red flags and provide an early warning to local governments and hospitals.
Also, areas with low risk of hurricanes and floods can often be considered suitable places to evacuate people, but if the incidence of COVID-19 is high, the risk of evacuees will also increase. After all, they are in hostels, hotels, restaurants, shops, etc. Public places are more likely to get infected.
Mostafavi also noted that during natural disasters, seeing a doctor will also become more difficult: the influx of wounded in hospitals causes a shortage of beds; wildfires and floods can also prevent people from seeing a doctor, such as damage to buildings and power outages. Etc., so people have to take down the new coronavirus testing site.
In short, it is an extremely difficult task to cope with natural disasters during the epidemic.
Lessons from other countries: disaster needs to be avoided
According to the Medical Xpress website, experts noted that earlier this year, the South Asian region had already warned the United States in a personal statement that if prevention and control of the new corona pneumonia epidemic fail are included in the response to the hurricane, there will be unimaginable consequences.
In May of this year, a devastating hurricane struck the Bay of Bengal. 2.2 million people were evacuated in Bangladesh and 4.3 million in India, undoubtedly exacerbating the new corona virus crisis in the two countries. Affected people were sent to up to 15,000 shelters in the area. Although to increase the distance between evacuees, there are more shelters than ever, but the number of new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the areas affected by the storm continues to rise sharply.
According to a comment in the Journal of the American Medical Association on August 12, the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia increased 3.7 times since the lifting of lockdown measures in the US states in May so far. before Hurricane Hanna made landfall on July 24. James Schultz, director of the Center for Disaster Preparedness and Extremes at Miller College, University of Miami, believes the hurricanes will exacerbate the growing trend of confirmed cases in some areas.
Schultz suggested that when you take shelter with other people, you should be aware of the possible spread of the new corona virus around you.
“A large part of the new corona virus is transmitted between family and friends. Even if you are with your most trusted, favorite and most loving friends, they can also transmit the virus to you.”
Schultz also said there may be a new corona vaccine next year, but this year’s situation of facing multiple threats from hurricanes, wildfires, and the new corona pneumonia pandemic is inevitable.
