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Soochow Securities pointed out that the current market has completed the adjustment before the holidays. Technically, the market as a whole has suffered a slight contraction and shock around 3230, and there has not been a tendency to fall below the platform by a large amount. This is a normal pre-holiday capital withdrawal action, andDuring National Day, the general news is optimistic, and some early stage exit funds may return to the market at a faster pace, and the traditional National Day food market may start after the holidays. From an operational point of view, since recent data has performed well and the external environment may enter a relatively stable period, investors can appropriately increase their positions to participate in the next best time window.
Northeast Securities noted thatConsidering that the global market is constantly increasing during National Day, A-shares are often driven by factors such as the return of safe haven funds before the holidays, and there are often increasing requirements after the holidays. Considering the important meeting at the end of October and the catalysis of the XIV Five Year Plan, the stock market is expected to show a steady rally ahead of the important meeting.From a short-term perspective, taking into account the 2-3% bounce of the global stock markets during the holidays, if the Shanghai Composite Index opens after the holidays, if the opening is too high, such as the index rises higher 2%, then you can consider rallies to reduce your position; conversely, if the index is 1% In, those with low positions may consider covering some drops; shocks between 1-2%. Generally speaking, if there is no black swan incident, driven by the policy of important meetings and the return of funds after the holidays, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index in October has a requirement to repair the 3,300 points; there is some degree of whether it can be further improved. Uncertainty. In terms of direction, the short-term style is more balanced, but the medium-term is the main line of least value, and focuses on the main line of economic recovery and the theme of the fourteenth five-year plan. You can focus on non-bank finance, resource cyclical products, new energy, medicine, military industry, and 14 Five planning topics and others.
Shanxi Securities noted thatJudging that A-shares were volatile in the fourth quarter, market opportunities still existed during the turmoil. The highlight of A-shares in the fourth quarter will continue to be the rebalancing of the sector and the continued recommendation of undervalued pro-cyclical sectors.Additionally, investors are encouraged to pay attention to sectors that are improving at the stage, such as media, tourism, and flu vaccines. Currently, flu vaccines in Beijing, Shanghai, and elsewhere are in short supply. Follow-up flu vaccines are expected to continue to increase. Investors can proper care.In terms of thematic investment, investors are advised to pay attention to the new corona vaccine. The number of confirmed diagnoses in Europe and the United States has increased again and several new corona vaccines are expected to be released by the end of the year. The new corona vaccine sector has gradually reduced investment opportunities.
Guosheng Securities noted that the market volume before the holidays may contract and the performance is slow, mainly due to the increase in risk aversion due to the long holidays. With the end of the holidays, although the foreign market has experienced Trump from new infection of the crown to hospitalization, rapid improvement and discharge, etc. But the market did not see the sharp adjustment that everyone was concerned about, but the majority rose. Therefore, it can be foreseen that the market may usher in a certain catering market. Pre-holiday safe haven funds are likely to move to market again after the uncertainty subsides. In particular, stocks in the procyclical sector may perform better. Out of the past 20 full years, there have been 13 times when the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose in the week after National Day, with a probability of increasing more than 60%. The years of decline are basically even years; In the full five years since 2015, except for the fall of the Shanghai Composite Index one week after National Day in 2018, the other four Shanghai Composite Index increased, among which the increase in 2015 was as high as 6.87%.The market is relatively bullish, the external market is expected to be strong and the market is expected to get off to a good start with the expectation of capital inflow after the holidays. Operationally, please pay attention to the concept of photovoltaic wind power in the XIV Five-Year Plan, the concept of the industrial chain from Apple’s press conference, the concept of Double Eleven, and the military sector of geopolitics.
Guotai Junan noted that during the double festival period, the Christmas economy is obvious to everyone, but global risk fluctuations still have a bigger impact. The current expected state of the market, on the one hand, is concerned about the inflection point of global liquidity, which will accelerate the recovery of the economy (profit) than expected; on the other hand, he is concerned about the impact of risk appetite caused by events such as the US elections. We believe that decreases caused by risk events tend to be better buying opportunities. Basically, the uptrend in profitability has been established, and the core is in the recovery of the residential and business sector.In summary, upperformance supports bullish shock pattern Over the period, if uncertain external factors impact the index, every opportunity to return from the shock and the October golden autumn design should be seized. Consider the odds of winning: preferred technology and optional consumption.
