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Original title: What will happen to the market in the future due to the market turmoil caused by the epidemic in Europe? source:Color ladderComprehensive
Recently, global risk aversion has clearly increased. Since March 17, 2021, WTI oil prices have corrected 10.5%. The global stock market has generally fallen, while the US dollar and US debt have strengthened.Industrial valuesPublish research reports and related opinions.
Industrial Securities pointed to the main fundamental shifts behind the hedge: Three European epidemics triggered an extension of the lockdown. Behind the fluctuations in foreign markets is mainly the rise of the third round of epidemics in Europe: on March 16, France announced the discovery of mutant viruses that can evade nucleic acid tests. Since then, the data on the European epidemic have deteriorated as a whole:
Confirmed cases in the euro area have increased significantly: Since March 15, the number of confirmed cases in euro area countries such as Germany, France and Italy has increased significantly, among which new deaths have increased significantly in Italy.
The share of hospital beds in the euro area has increased, and the share of ICU beds in Italy has exceeded the previous high: the share of new crown beds in the euro area has increased and Italy has exceeded the previous high .
Eurozone vaccination has slowed down: Since mid-March, the vaccination rate of the major eurozone countries, including Germany and France, has slowed down significantly.
Eurozone countries, including Germany and France, announced the extension of the blockade policy: since March 22, Germany, France and Italy have again announced the extension of the regional or national blockade.
Regarding the economic impact, Industrial Securities said that the fundamentals are expected to continue “Europe is weak and the United States strong”, and the attitude of the central bank is “European, broad and stable” in the short term. With the renewal of the lockdown policy, data on high-frequency economic activity in Europe has also declined significantly, and the recession in the European service industry is expected to continue. At the same time, as the United States begins issuing stimulus controls, its household consumption is expected to remain strong. The pattern of economic fundamentals “America is strong and Europe is weak” is expected to continue. In addition, after the March meeting, the European Central Bank accelerated the purchase of the Anti-Epidemic Emergency Bond Purchase Program (PEPP), but the Fed did not adopt any further substantive easing policies, and the bank’s policy is expected to central is kept “European and US-Ping”. .
On the asset outlook, Industrial Securities said that in the short term, US debt may fluctuate, the US dollar may rise and commodity stocks may be under pressure. With reference to the second round of the epidemic in Europe, the US and European markets showed obvious panic after Germany and France announced a complete lockdown, with the focus shifting to the US. new European diagnoses will stabilize at the end of October 2020. The general elections, and then began to rebound. In the short term, the emotional suppression caused by the epidemic is expected to continue, putting pressure on commodities and the stock market, while the downward pressure on US debt will slow in the short term. Under the pattern of “Europe is weak and America is strong,” the US dollar still has upward pressure. Time points to watch for going forward are the US debt auction in late March and the OPEC + meeting on April 1. Furthermore, the high-level strategic dialogue between China and the US and the prospects for the Comprehensive Investment Agreement (BIT) between China and the EU are external factors that require continued attention.
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