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Original title: Many countries issue flight bans and South Africa’s economic recovery is hampered
Source: Beijing Commercial Daily
For South Africa, with the momentum of economic recovery in the third quarter, not only the second wave of epidemics, but also the new variant of the 501.V2 virus. In view of the possibility of increased infectivity, 501.V2 has shown an exponential increase in the epidemic situation in South Africa, which is just one step away from the one million confirmed cases mark. Be it the flight bans of other countries or the new lockdown measures already in play, the signs of economic growth in South Africa will again weaken.
The number of confirmed cases in a single day in South Africa once again reached a new record. On December 23 local time, the South African Ministry of Health confirmed that there were 14,046 new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in South Africa that day, with a total of 954,258 confirmed cases; 411 new deaths and a total of 25,657 deaths; 6,269,776 people across the country have been tested for the new coronavirus. .
One day ago, on December 22 local time, there were still 9,501 new confirmed cases in South Africa that day; A month ago, on November 24, there were only 2,040 new confirmed cases in a single day. Previously, the peak of the first round of the epidemic was in July and August, with the highest number of recently confirmed cases in a single day approaching 14,000. Last month, rising numbers have demonstrated the rapid spread of the epidemic in South Africa.
On December 23, South African Health Minister Mukez stated that the increase in the number of confirmed cases indicated that the second wave of the epidemic was spreading faster than the first. This is inseparable from the newly discovered variant of the new coronavirus. On December 18, South Africa reported on a new mutant virus for the first time and named it “501.V2”. Mukez said there is evidence that 501.V2 fueled the second wave of outbreaks in South Africa.
At present, South African medical experts have not yet determined the source of 501.V2. It was first discovered in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa and then spread to the surrounding area. However, it is currently impossible to determine whether the mutant virus originated in the Eastern Cape province.
According to the findings of South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (Krisp), this particular mutant virus has become increasingly dominant in the past two months. Karim, co-chair of the New Coronavirus Task Force of South Africa, said that between 80% and 90% of the new coronavirus samples they have obtained are this variant. Clinical data shows that more patients are young with no underlying diseases, but show more severe symptoms than the previous infection with the new coronavirus.
Not just South Africa, 501.V2 has now spread to many countries. On December 23 local time, the UK Department of Public Health issued a statement that the UK confirmed two confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia on December 22, and these two cases were both 501.V2 cases. Under this circumstance, British Transport Secretary Sharps announced that from 9 am local time on December 24 all flights between the UK and South Africa will be suspended.
According to statistics, as of December 23, eight countries, including Germany, Turkey, Israel and Switzerland, have announced a ban on South African flights.
According to the Krisp report, 501.V2 has a mutation called N501Y in the spike protein. Previous studies have shown that the N501Y mutation can make the new coronavirus infect human cells more easily. However, there is no evidence that the South African mutant strain is more destructive. Krisp also noted that people who have been cured after being infected with the new coronavirus can be re-infected with the mutant strain.
According to Mukez, “We must warn the South African people that we have to re-examine the current lockdown measures to ensure that the current spread of the virus is slowed.”
For South Africa’s recovering economy, the current increase in infection rates is certainly another blow.
At the beginning of December, many indicators announced by South Africa showed that the country has gradually rid itself of a technological recession. Data released on the 8th of this month showed that third quarter GDP increased 13.5% month-over-month, with an annual growth rate of 66.1%. The relaxed control environment has also led to a rapid increase in South African household spending. The average annual increase in restaurant and hotel expenses in the third quarter reached 7,043%.
At the time, South African President Ramaphosa stated that South Africa’s current task is to ensure that this momentum continues to achieve a full economic recovery.
However, it is clear that the current environment can no longer allow epidemic prevention measures to continue to relax. On December 14, the South African government issued a series of policies to close picturesque beaches, restrict alcohol sales and extend curfews in hot spots of the epidemic.
At the same time, South African police have also stepped up law enforcement efforts during the year-end holidays, including road inspections and store inspections to observe alcohol sales hours. At the same time, it will strictly control the capacity of restaurants and bars and will apply the management of epidemic prevention and control with determination. Regulations
Of course, what follows is the reality of declining tourism and shopping revenues and falling consumer spending during the holiday season.
Shen Xiaolei, deputy director of the Office of Policy Research at the Institute of West Asia and Africa at the Academy of Social Sciences, noted that after the end of March, South Africa adopted stricter bans and then gradually liberalized them. Therefore, economic growth in the third quarter was just a rebound, essentially the epidemic. The economic impact has not yet passed.
According to Shen Xiaolei, after the second wave of the epidemic, South Africa has not really adopted a higher-level ban. It has only introduced a few top-tier policies. On the one hand, it is also in contradiction. How to maintain the prevention and control of the epidemic Balance with economic growth, if it is blocked again, the economy will definitely not be able to support it; on the other hand, you may also be waiting for a vaccine.
Beijing Business Daily Reporter Tao Feng Tang Yitian
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