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Major adjustments to Biden’s epidemic prevention policy may not necessarily implement the economic lockdown
Author: elegant
[ 截至美东时间11月8日，美国连续四天刷新单日新增病例的纪录，5日至7日每天报告的新增确诊病例均超过12万例。 ]
According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States is close to 10 million and the death toll exceeds 230,000. As of November 8 EST, the United States set a new record for new cases in a single day for four consecutive days, with more than 120,000 new confirmed cases reported every day from 5 to 7.
At the same time, Biden said in a victory speech in Wilmington, Delaware, last Saturday (Nov. 7): “I will spare no effort, spare no effort, and spare no effort to reverse this pandemic.” Biden was on Monday he set out to establish a new 12-member coronavirus task force, which will transform its new corona pneumonia epidemic prevention plan into an “action plan” that is “built on the basis of science “.
Why is the new wave of epidemic rebound in the United States so serious? What major adjustments will Biden’s epidemic prevention plan make? Has the Trump administration declared that the United States will withdraw from the World Health Organization (WHO) and has it turned upside down after the elections? With these questions in mind, the CBN reporter interviewed Huang Yanzhong, senior researcher in global health at the US Council on Foreign Relations, Professor at the School of Diplomacy and International Relations at Seton Hall University and director of the Center. of Global Health Affairs.
Will the US medical system collapse?
China Business News: The new wave of epidemics in the United States is much more serious than this spring and summer Why is there such a severe rebound?
Huang Yanzhong: I think this is for the following reasons: First, although the United States has so far introduced some social distancing measures, such as some states requiring people to wear masks, it has not in fact fundamentally cut the chain of transmission. Therefore, without the implementation of very strict isolation measures or epidemic prevention measures, added to the existence of uninfected people, the virus has been spreading and will continue to spread. Second, without fundamentally cutting the chain of transmission, the United States has reopened one after another since August and September. As far as I know, some universities, middle schools, and elementary schools also allow students to return to class, and the business sector has also rebooted, all of which increase the risk of transmission of the virus. Third, there will be a lot of electoral activities before the November elections in the United States, which also increases the possibility of exposure and the possibility of infection.
China Business News: How will the trend of the American epidemic develop in the coming weeks or in the winter? Will the United States government introduce the corresponding anti-epidemic measures?
Huang Yanzhong: The problem now is that it is in the period when the president is changing (the US government will introduce epidemic prevention measures), the possibility is not very high. On the other hand, now entering the fall and winter seasons, as the temperature drops, more people will choose to spend more time indoors, and the social distancing distance is shortened, increasing the possibility of contact and infection. In such circumstances, many public health experts and I believe that the epidemic will continue to escalate.
Now, the number of new cases in a single day in the United States has exceeded 100,000. From last Thursday to Saturday, the number of new cases reported daily exceeded 120,000 and the number of daily deaths exceeded 1,000 for four consecutive days. According to a project by the Institute for Health Measurement and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle, the epidemic in the United States will continue to increase, probably until mid-January or even the end of January next year, almost when Biden assumes the charge (at its peak).
China Business News: If the epidemic continues to escalate, will there be a collapse of the medical system and a depletion of medical resources?
Huang Yanzhong: This possibility exists, especially if the epidemic continues to escalate and the number of critically ill patients increases, the pressure on the medical system will increase. In other words, with the spread of the epidemic increases the number of infected, this possibility exists.
But from another aspect, this possibility is not too great. First, even in March and April of this year, when medical personnel were most lost, there was no shortage of resources. So far, they have more experience and will be better prepared to deal with this wave of epidemics. Second, according to research, the proportion of new coronary pneumonia that progresses to severe disease and then death is decreasing. A study conducted by the New York University School of Medicine and the hospital system found that the death rate for hospitalized patients fell from more than 25% in March to the current 6% to 7%, representing a reduction significant.
This indicates that the toxicity of the new coronavirus is likely to be weakening in the process of spread, and the increasing number of asymptomatic infections may also be the reason. From this perspective, I believe that unless the number of critically ill patients increases dramatically, the possibility of a depletion of medical resources will not be very high.
The main challenges of the Biden government’s anti-epidemic plan
China Business News: Will Biden’s epidemic prevention strategy undergo major adjustments?
Huang Yanzhong: Basically all the public health experts believe that the Biden administration will make major adjustments to the epidemic prevention policy. It will reportedly introduce a number of measures. For example, on Monday he announced the establishment of a task force to tackle the novel corona pneumonia virus. Former US Department of Health Director Vivek Murthy, who was previously fired by President Trump, and former US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Kessler. (David Kessler) co-chairs.
Biden also proposed that wearing a mask be a mandatory measure, because wearing a mask is still a suggested behavior. The Biden administration’s communication strategy during the epidemic will also change. He said he will more respect the opinions of science and experts, change the previous practice of communication between politicians and the public, and put pressure on experts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the FDA. To the reception.
Biden also mentioned that he will be more active in promoting new tests for the coronary pneumonia virus and will strive for free tests. Additionally, Biden wants to expand the surveillance system nationwide, and even said the CDC will establish a 24-hour data panel to track hospital admissions related to the novel corona pneumonia virus. He also hopes that the CDC will formulate and establish clearer guidelines nationwide for containing the virus and scientifically regulate the opening of schools and social gatherings.
This content is not completely new, because other countries have already done it, but for the United States, due to the laissez-faire control of the epidemic, this may be a different challenge.
CBN: What are the main challenges for the Biden administration in organizing and implementing its anti-epidemic plan?
Huang Yanzhong: There is already a saying, time is not on your side, “time is not on your side.” But if the epidemic really does develop to a very serious point when he takes over, he may be more convincing to push for stricter measures and it will be easier to persuade the opposition. At the same time, the situation in the US Congressional elections is not fully understood, but it seems likely that Republicans will continue to control the Senate. The question here is how far you can get Republican cooperation, and then you will have to go ahead with your plan. Bargaining and haggling.
On the other hand, to what extent will the American people support these measures, because in fact, some Americans have more “life will go on” thoughts, thinking that they can’t be locked up by the epidemic and do nothing at home. . Furthermore, since the outbreak of the epidemic in the United States, seven or eight months have passed and the American people have grown weary of this blockade. If the blockade is re-blocked by then, it can be very difficult to get the cooperation of the American people.
China Business News: Are epidemic control and economic development opposed? If we want to control the epidemic, is it inevitable to implement an economic blockade?
Huang Yanzhong: I personally think that we should not say that the relationship between the two is opposite, but rather that we should talk about how to find a dynamic balance between the two. Among Biden’s current political priorities, one is tackling the epidemic and the other is promoting economic recovery. If epidemic prevention and economic development are opposed, both cannot be achieved at the same time. Judging by Biden’s current measures, he did not mention using more radical measures, such as re-imposing the blockade, otherwise the economy will only get worse. From the perspective of the American people, in the polls many people do not feel that they have suffered too much economic loss since the epidemic, I think this may be related to a series of aid measures from the federal government.
Therefore, on the one hand, you need to find a balance between the two; on the other hand, countries like South Korea have not done much damage to the economy while the epidemic is under control. Therefore, to control the epidemic, the implementation of an economic blockade is not necessarily inevitable.
CBN: In July of this year, the United States officially began the withdrawal process from the World Health Organization (WHO). Now, is there room for recovery in this matter? What does this mean for the United States?
Huang Yanzhong: Yes, Biden has made it clear that he wants to go back to WHO, basically no suspense. Although the Trump administration announced his retirement, the withdrawal process has not been completed (Note: Based on the one-year notice period, the Trump administration’s withdrawal decision will not go into effect until July 6, 2021) . It can be predicted that if the United States returns to the WHO, the United States will play a role in WHO reform, such as the financing mechanism of the WHO and how the budget should be implemented.
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