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Original title: Live pig production recovers rapidly in the fourth quarter, supply and demand will decline
The latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that in August, the national production of live pigs continued to recover rapidly, the basic production capacity of breeding sows was further consolidated, and the supply of the pig market is gradually improving. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that with the continued increase in the number of fat pigs on the market, the supply-demand ratio in the fourth quarter will further relax and the price of pork will not be higher than in the same period last year.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national inventory of live pigs increased 4.7% month-on-month in August, increasing for 7 consecutive months, 31.3% more year-on-year. The stock of breeder sows in August increased by 3.5% month-on-month, representing an increase of 11 consecutive months and a year-on-year increase of 37.0%.
“The stable prevention and control of African swine fever has improved the confidence of the herd,” said the competent person in charge of the Livestock and Veterinary Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Through more than two years of practice in the prevention and control of African swine fever, awareness of biosecurity in most pig farms (households) has increased unprecedentedly, and a set has been gradually explored of effective prevention and control experiences. Confidence in pig farming has continued to grow. Many pig farms (households) started to re-breed and increase their feed due to panic and wait and see at first.
According to the full coverage of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of large-scale pig farms across the country, 2030 large-scale pig farms were put into production in August. Since the beginning of this year, the total number of newly built large-scale pig farms has reached 11,123. Last year, there were 11,844 large-scale pig farms that were empty. The number of pig farms with a scale of 500 or more pigs for slaughter rose from 161,000 at the beginning of the year to 171,000. In August, there were 26 million new piglets, an increase of 6.7% compared to the previous month and an increase of 59 , 5% from the lowest point in January this year. Due to the strong demand for replacement, although newborn piglets continue to increase, the supply is still scarce and the price has risen significantly. In the first week of September (August 31-September 6), the price of piglets in the national bazaar was 109.07 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 44.4% from the beginning of this year.
It is understood that since March, live pig slaughter has increased month by month for 6 consecutive months, and pig slaughter in August has increased by 5.0% month by month. In the first seven months of this year, pork imports were 2.555 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 138.6%, while in July pork imports were 432,000 tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 120.2%. With the gradual improvement in market supply, pork prices have fluctuated and stabilized since August and have decreased slightly since September. In the second week of September (September 7 to 13), the price of pork in the national bazaar was 55.65 yuan per kilogram, 0.6% less than the previous month.
According to expert simulation studies, the number of pigs slaughtered from September to December this year will increase month by month. Although the accumulated slaughter volume is less than the normal year, it has increased by 17.3% compared to the same period last year. The supply situation is better than in 2019.
According to the person in charge, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will continue to strengthen monitoring, monitoring and programming, and will continue to pay attention to the impact of Sanyuan Fat Pigs. We will further consolidate the province’s requirements to ensure the stable production and supply of live pigs and the mayor’s responsibility system of the “vegetable basket” to consolidate local responsibilities. Cooperate with relevant departments to implement the mortgage loan pilot and environmental commitment pilot system and other policy measures, pay close attention to all kinds of subsidies and subsidy funds, and support small and medium farms to accelerate the replenishment through various channels such as leading companies, policy financing support, and hands-on technical training. Increase breeding and target major swine counties in flood-affected southern areas to accelerate restoration of production. Implement standardized prevention and control of African swine fever, strengthen measures such as quarantine, transport, slaughter supervision and the harmless treatment of sick and dead pigs to block the spread of the epidemic.
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