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Original title: Is there really a drama this time? There are signs that Britain and Europe will reach an agreement GBPSoaring through the night!
The Anglo-European marathon-style Brexit trade negotiations appear to be finally coming to an end. Overnight, multiple signals showed that a Brexit trade deal was expected to be struck this week, and the pound rose sharply.
According to the “Daily Telegraph” report on the night of December 15 local time, there are signs that the trade negotiations between the UK and Europe in Brussels made further progress on Tuesday evening, and the two sides are expected to arrive. to a deal this week. Members of the British House of Commons have reportedly been notified to prepare for a vote on the draft Brexit trade deal early next week.
The Daily Telegraph quoted a British government source as saying Prime Minister Boris also postponed the suspension date from parliament over the Christmas period. Fortunately, the vote on the draft Brexit trade agreement will take place from next Monday to next Wednesday (December 21-23).
Nicholas Watt, political editor of the BBC Newsnight program, also tweeted on Tuesday that the UK and the EU are moving towards a trade deal that will satisfy Brexit supporters.
He wrote on Twitter: “At the last minute, there were rumors among Conservative MPs that Britain was moving towards a Brexit deal with the EU. The Cabinet promised to satisfy the Eurosceptics.”
In terms of specifics, according to The Guardian, the UK has made concessions on fishing.EU sources said that, as part of a broader commitment, the UK has downplayed a key requirement for post-Brexit fishing rights, that current British-flagged fishing vessels should be majority-owned by the British in the future. Under the new fishing agreements next year, the catch from these fishing boats will increase.
The issue of fishing has always been one of the focal points of disputes between the UK and the EU, especially for Spanish and Dutch fishermen who have invested in British flag boats since the 1990s. This is a threatening issue their livelihoods. Today, the resolution of this problem is an important step in reaching an agreement.
In addition to fisheries issues, Brexiters have also been told that the UK has negotiated a joint dispute settlement mechanism. Brexiters are assured that if the UK deviates from EU standards in the future, the UK will not be unilaterally punished by the EU, that is, a “tariff cut”. Furthermore, with regard to a level playing field, the EU and the UK will observe common rules in a way that respects sovereignty.
Spurred on by the good news of Brexit,GBP to USDOn Tuesday, it rose sharply for the second day in a row, breaking the 1.34 mark, reaching a high of 1.3469. Some outlets even listed the future timetable for the next Brexit:
From a probabilistic point of view, although the probability of a hard Brexit has increased recently (not considering today’s new developments), as shown in the figure below, the probability of a no-deal Brexit in the UK has actually been below 35%.
The Financial Times noted that while British Prime Minister Johnson has always bragged that even a hard Brexit, Britain will prosper, but it is clear in his heart that Britain cannot afford the consequences of a no-deal Brexit. Therefore, the end result of the negotiations will be that the United Kingdom accepts a trade agreement on the terms proposed by the EU.
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