Iron ore prices hit the 1,000 yuan mark, inventory falls, mills take action

Summary

[Los precios del mineral de hierro superaron la marca de los 1.000 yuanes y las existencias cayeron y las acerías se apresuraron a comprar bienes]Iron ore futures saw a rare rise on December 10. At the end of the afternoon, the main iron ore futures contract was up 6.76%. Behind the futures is spot support, and the spot price of iron ore rose to 1,000 yuan for the first time after 2013. (Stock Times)

December 10 iron orefuturesThere was a rare increase. At the end of the afternoon, iron ore futuresMain forceThe contract rose 6.76%. Behind the futures is spot support, and the spot price of iron ore rose to 1,000 yuan for the first time after 2013.

According to industry experts, the main reason behind this wave of iron ore growth is declining inventories and steel mills hogging assets. As for whether there are other reasons, there are divergent opinions in the industry and it’s hard to tell.

One industry insider said that “a thousand iron ore, two thousand coke and four thousand threads” had been circulating in the industry before, which was incredible, and has become a reality today.

　　Inventory drop

Australian ore inventories have been trending down recently.

The data shows that the rebarsocietyInventory has decreased rapidly, indicatingconsumptionVolume is increasing or production is not as high as demand.

In the same period, AustraliaTo exportThe amount of ore has been generally stable.

This shows that downstream demand is strong, consuming the mill’s inventory, and the mill has a need to recover inventory.marketThe rush for iron ore and the amount of iron ore shipped to China has not increased, leading to an imbalance between supply and demand.

As a result of the imbalance between supply and demand, some mills are willing to pay high prices for iron ore.priceBe elevated.

The general extent of the imbalance between supply and demand is difficult to predict, as can be seen from inventory.

Steel inventories will increase substantially from winter to March, and only when spring arrives and construction restarts will inventory drop again – this is an industrial phenomenon. After winter enters the northern partDivideThe domain cannot be started, at this time the steelworks will continueRenewalContinuous production, including steel mills, did not stop during the epidemic.

Therefore, at this time, steel stocks from previous years have started to build up and stocks continue to decline this year.

　　Strong downstream demand

In downstream transmission, domestic steel prices have recently increased continuously, demand is strong, and the off-season is not low.

National mills have entered a small business cycle and have been producing. Due to strong demand downstream, the steel inventory has not been high and imbalances between supply and demand are likely.

Upstream iron ore production capacity has been very stable. There is no planned increase, onlyValleyIt plans to expand production to 30 million tons.

Additionally, there was news today that Australia is considering suspending iron ore mining projects. Prior to this, Rio Tinto destroyed a 46,000-year-old cavern in Giant’s Canyon to expand the iron ore mine, prompting a joint investigation by the Australian Parliament.reportHe said that although Rio Tinto knew that the cave had high historical value, it still blew it up, Rio Tinto has an inescapable role in this incident.responsibilityAustralian ParliamentCommitteeIt is recommended that the government of Western Australia stop issuing new authorizations for the extraction of iron ore.

Iron ore becomes a bottleneckprofitIt will pass to iron ore producers.

　　customsThe General Administration issued a report on December 7 that Chinato importIron ore exceeded one billion tons,I andAn increase of 10.9%. In November alone, China’s iron ore imports reached 98.15 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%.

With such great supply and growth, it is still difficult to feed Chinese mills, which shows how strong the demand for Chinese steel is.

　　Return to the Historic High Price Zone

Statistics show that after the price of iron ore rose sharply around 2008, it has been on a downward trend in recent years. The previous two highs were in 2013 and last year. From January to March 2013, the price of iron ore per ton More than 1,000 yuan, but the duration is not long. Last year,ValleyThe tailings dam failure and the impact of the Australian wind disaster, the price of iron ore once reached 880 yuan, but soon fell.

When the price of iron ore per ton increased by more than 800 yuan last year, the industry association once issued aInvestigationThe article said that excessive iron ore prices eroded steel mills’ profits, in hopes of taking steps to stabilize prices.

The price of iron ore this year has risen considerably and even more than last year. The China Iron and Steel Association launched an appeal on December 6.Market demandDisadvantage, I hope the relevant departments can get involved in it in time.

Head of Cloud Business at OuyeelAnalystZeng Jiesheng believes that the sharp rise in futures and rising iron ore prices are mainly due to relatively strong demand Deteriorating relations between China and Australia has further strengthened expectations about iron ore prices .

Another reason for the increase in iron ore prices is related to post-epidemic reconstruction and inflation expectations. Since the second quarter, many greatProductThe price has skyrocketed and the black series is one of them.

(Article source:ValuesTimes)

(Responsible editor: DF520)