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The baton to resolve the issue of the Iranian nuclear deal has fallen into the hands of current US President Biden, but in the current situation, progress may not be seen as straightforward. “If you want to negotiate, you must first lift the economic sanctions on Iran.” Although he rejected the proposal to hold informal talks with the United States, Iran’s attitude has also been clear, tough and uncompromising. However, Biden has also made it clear that he will not lift economic sanctions first to allow Iran to return to negotiations. The key to the problem now is, in this game, who will commit first.
The United States has eaten the “closed door” of Iran. On February 28, local time, the spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Said Khatibzad, stated on social networks that taking into account the positions and actions of the United States and the three main European countries (United Kingdom, France and Germany ), Informal discussions are now taking place. The time has not yet come.
On February 18, the US government declared that it would participate in the informal meeting between P5 + 1 and Iran at the invitation of the EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Borelli. The Iranian side responded that it is discussing the proposal with the relevant parties and will respond later. But now, obviously, things are not as good as expected.
“The sanctions on Iran are still there and negotiations will not be possible,” Khatibzad added. In the opinion of the Financial Times, this Iranian behavior is undoubtedly a major blow to the Biden administration. In response to Khatibzad’s comments, a White House spokesman later responded that he was disappointed by Iran’s refusal to hold informal talks and planned to consult the six countries on the Iranian nuclear issue on the next step. A senior US official said Iran’s refusal is not “the end of the road.” Although this response is “unfortunate”, if Iran proposes to adopt other methods of dialogue, the United States will remain open.
Indeed, Iran has repeatedly emphasized that for Iran to agree to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran, the United States must lift previous sanctions imposed on Iran by the Trump administration, while the Biden administration has repeatedly emphasized that the United States must return to the Accord. Iran nuclear. Enforcement of the provisions of the Iran nuclear deal must first be restored. As if caught in a dead end, neither the United States nor Iran would take the initiative to make concessions on the question of reverting to the agreement or lifting economic sanctions first.
The impact of economic sanctions is obvious. In September last year, Iranian President Rouhani mentioned that the US-initiated sanctions against Iran were “barbaric” and the sanctions caused huge losses to the Iranian economy. In the three years from 2018 to 2020, Iran lost at least $ 150 billion.
Last year’s epidemic had a major impact on the world economy, and Iran is no exception. Taking just tourism as an example, data released by Iran’s Department of Tourism shows that only 74 foreign tourists arrived in Iran from March to June 2020, compared to 2.3 million in the same period last year. Iran’s Economy and Finance Minister Deji Pasad also stated that the new corona pneumonia epidemic has caused a 15% drop in Iran’s GDP.
“The focus of the US-Iran game is who commits first. From the perspective of the overall situation, the United States is more likely to commit first.” Dong Manyuan, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, analyzed a journalist for the Beijing Business Daily that in recent years, in addition to launching the war, the United States has exhausted its means to rectify Iran, and even in the face of Trump’s withdrawal Iran’s nuclear deal, extreme pressure and long-arm jurisdiction, Iran’s nuclear policy. The modernization of the program and of national defense continues to advance significantly. In general, it can be said that its nuclear capacity has undergone a qualitative change. That is the confidence that Iran can demand of the United States in an offensive and defensive posture.
From the US perspective, now is not the time to get “tangled up” with Iran. Dong Manyuan said the United States knew that Iran was raising prices, but could not, and continued pressure was not effective. The United States is embroiled in internal problems. The new Biden government has come to power. The highest priority is to resolve internal affairs, including fighting the epidemic, restoring the economy and reducing social tears. This has forced its diplomatic requirements for stability and concentrated resources to deal with internal problems. As for seeking stability in the Middle East, it has two implications: one is the basic stability of hot topics, and the other is seeking the stability of the alliance system.
In Dong Manyuan’s view, in the US-Iran game, Iran’s fundamental requirement is to lift sanctions, and the first step for the US to commit is to allow South Korea and Japan to unfreeze Iran’s funds. After all, Iran’s reasons for using the money is also legitimate, such as fighting the epidemic and paying UN dues. The second step is to adopt an attitude of acquiescence when there is no longer any economic, commercial or energy cooperation between the countries in which the United States once had long-arm jurisdiction and Iran.
Affected by US sanctions, two South Korean banks have frozen $ 7 billion of Iran’s oil exports to South Korea. South Korea has proposed a variety of solutions, but negotiations with Iran failed. Japan’s frozen Iranian assets are less than $ 3 billion, mainly due to crude oil import tariffs that should be paid to Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif also called on the Japanese government to unfreeze Iranian assets in Japan. He also mentioned that once the Japanese side is thawed, Iran will use these assets to buy medicine and food, including the new crown vaccine.
Beijing Business Daily Reporter Yang YuehanReturn to Sohu to see more
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