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Original title: International gold prices are struggling to top. Although the uncertainty of the US general election continues to ferment, the two main negative factors are also very obvious
On Wednesday (October 28), the international price of gold continued to struggle to rise above the 1,900 USD mark. The rapid implementation of fiscal stimulus measures by the United States was expected to weaken and new cases of the world crown increased, offsetting the benefits of the uncertainty of the US general election outlook for the gold market.
At 3:31 p.m. Beijing time, spot gold fell slightly by 0.08 to $ 1,906.53 an ounce;Dollar indexIt was up 0.11% to 93.140.
Beautiful fingerRecorded a new high of 93,209 in the last six business days. US President Trump previously admitted that he may not reach an agreement on the financial aid plan until the general election on November 3. The market was disappointed that the White House failed to bridge differences with fellow Republicans in the Senate and Democrats in Congress.
Michelle Meyer, director of US economics at Bank of America Securities, said: “Election results can influence the trajectory of new stimulus measures. Clearly, winning the election can speed up stimulus negotiations. elections, the political environment will challenge additional stimulus measures. “
House Speaker Pelosi led the House to pass a new $ 3 trillion crown aid bill in May, but Republicans who control the U.S. Senate had reservations about the introduction of another large-scale bill. They proposed a much smaller plan, focusing on several areas that needed assistance.
Stephen Innes, Axi’s chief global market strategist, said: “Investors need more reasons to buy gold. The main trade signal will come from politics. As the new corona epidemic rages again, we will witness the introduction of new economic stimulus measures at some point in the future.… The impact on the economy is very significant and the central bank may also be willing to take more intervention measures. “
The United States will hold general elections next week and the battle between Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Biden is fierce. Trump, who is lagging behind in the national poll, once again criticized the US electoral mechanism on Tuesday, saying that the extra time to calculate the tens of millions of votes sent by mail for the presidential elections “is not appropriate.”
As Trump challenged the mailed vote, Democratic candidate Biden stepped onto Trump’s electoral battlefield and delivered a message of unity to voters in Georgia’s traditional Republican vote warehouse.
People remain concerned about the spread of the new corona virus. Recently, the number of new confirmed cases in the United States, Russia, France and elsewhere has skyrocketed. Governments of many European countries have adopted new travel restrictions to prevent further outbreaks.
The Economist Intelligence Unit issued a report stating that after experiencing the new corona virus pandemic, slow economic growth, low inflation and high indebtedness accompanied by demographic crises will become common characteristics of developed economies in the next decades; and developed economies after the epidemic. The “zombification” situation is likely to continue.
The report noted that the outbreak has prompted developed economies to introduce large-scale fiscal measures. The stimulus measures announced by the G20 countries this year have reached $ 11 trillion, which is almost Japan’s total economic output. Germany and France.
Philip Marey, US senior strategist at Rabobank, said: “As households and businesses grapple with the effects of the lockdown and the epidemic, the pace of recovery has slowed. At the same time, the expansion of fiscal stimulus has yet to it has materialized and the pace is too late. ” “The intensity may not be great. If the market is selling strongly and economic data deteriorates, we can see Washington push the stimulus plan even in a controversial environment.”
Spot gold is still seen at $ 1960
On the hourly chart, gold price tightening wave ii starting at $ 1917 has spread, showing a three-wave pattern of ((W)), ((X)), ((Y)). If the price of gold ends wave ii at US $ 1,891 and the trend of wave iii upward begins, the 100% target level will be US $ 1,960 rising wave (i) that started at $ 1849.
(I) The wave is a sub-wave of the rising wave ((v)) that also started at $ 1849. On the daily chart, the resistance level above the price of gold is towards the 1979 US dollars. It is a sub-wave of the rising wave (iii)) that started at US $ 1,668. Both waves ((iii)) and (v)) are from 1455. The US dollar started three bullish waves.
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