Institutional Non-Farm Assessment: Non-Farm September Not As Expected Or Just A Bad Start

Original Title: Institutional Non-Farm Assessment: Non-Farm September Not As Expected, Or Just A Bad Start

Beijing time on Friday (October 2), the US Department of Labor released data showing September US non-farm products.jobThe number of people increased by 661,000,unemploymentThe rate is 7.9% .The US Bureau of Labor Statistics Saysworkstrengthmarketofto get betterIt reflects the continued recovery of economic activities suppressed by the new corona pneumonia epidemic and the efforts made to control the epidemic.

In September, leisure and hospitality, retail, health and social assistance, as well as professionals anddealEmployment in the service sector has increased significantly. From March to August, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish a classification of miscalculationemployeeInsideunemployment rateValuation, if calculated in the same way, the overall unemployment rate in September will be less thanreportIt is 0.4% higher, but this is the biggest error caused by data misclassification. (Last month’s error was 0.7 percentage points.)

Huitong.com Quick Review: September Non-Farm Employment Did Not Meet Expectations, Or Was Just a Bad Start; US non-farm employment increased by 661,000 in September, expected to be 875,000, unemployment rate is 7.9%, 8.2% is expected, annual wage rate is 4, 7%, 4.8% is expected,manufacturingWorking populationAn increase of 66,000 is expected to be 35,000.

Non-farm data also reveals the apparent pressure: Compared to the number of temporary layoffs or unpaid leave, the number of permanent unemployment is increasing. Furthermore, the number of people who have been unemployed for a longer time has also increased in the first few months; The data shows that the US economy has entered a critical stage, because a lot of aid has been lost from the US government, and the November US elections are approaching. the epidemic continues. , Full of uncertainty.

Firing temporary employees in the census can become a drag on non-farm data. Previously, the census hired a large number of temporary workers, which boosted non-farm data performance in August, but now it has become a drag, and subsequent data can be even more difficult. Wow, tens of thousands of airlinesthe companyjobsStaff will be forced to take vacations, seasonal employment from retailers is below average, cookouts become more difficult to maintain, resulting in layoffs of restaurant staff and possible layoffs from state governments and local. If the US economy recovers less than expected, it may evolve On a larger scalecompanyRuined. What should be mentioned is that the economic recovery will depend to a large extent on the evolution of the epidemic situation in the United States.

ForexliveAnalystAdam Button said that the U.S. unemployment rate fell below 8% and is worth making news, but while the unemployment rate fell 0.5%, the participation rate also fell 0.3 %. The decline in the labor participation rate is not good for the economy, indicating that some people are falling. Towards long-term unemployment, or withworkforceOut of touch.

Economists comment on September’s nonfarm industry: seeing more layoffs and bankruptcies, it won’t surprise me that the employment situation fell again before the end of the year; Sung Won Sohn, a professor of finance and economics at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, said the economic recovery continues. But speed has slowed, in part because the government’s stimulus measures have weakened significantly. We see more layoffs and bankruptcies. Until the next administration gets more support, I won’t be surprised if employment falls again before the end of the year.

Interpretation of US non-farm employment data shows that the number of people employed in private companies continued to rise by 877,000 in September, showing that the recovery momentum still continues, but the government sector has declined by 216,000Send, Mainly related to the end of the census, so the unemployment rate fell further by 0.5% to less than 8%, falling for the fifth consecutive month. This means that before the general elections, the trend of economic and employment improvement is still continuing, which is still more or less supportive of market sentiment.

Huitong Network Review: Non-Farm in September indicates that economic growth will slow through the fourth quarter, and uncertainty is making companies cautious about hiring employees.attitude . In February of this year, the US economy entered a recession. However, job growth in September was the lowest since the start of the job recovery in May. The labor market is still a long way from recovering the 22.2 million jobs lost in March and April, indicating that economic growth will slow until the fourth quarter. The growing number of new coronavirus cases is expected to see an increase this fall, which may result in some restrictions for service companies. Political uncertainty is increasing and may extend beyond elections, making companies cautious about hiring employees. A few months after the resumption of operations, demand remained low, especially in the service industry, leading to permanent closures or layoffs of some companies.

Bloomberg economists comment on nonfarms for September: inEmployment reportMiddle, rightinterest rateThe market hardly has much influence. Until there is a more pronounced acceleration or decline in economic activity, the recent range of fluctuation may remain unchanged. The general election could becomeinterest rateThe next catalyst for increased market volatility, but generally does not affect the market, 2016 is a huge exception.

Bloomberg Analyst: America’s black-white unemployment rate gap has fallen for the first time since April, by about 0.9 percentage points.

(Source: Huitong.com)

(Responsible editor: DF062)