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Going back to 2011, the iPhone launched in October of that year
In the 4s, production capacity was seriously insufficient, delivery time was repeatedly delayed, and the price of oxen remained high, which was also the time when the news of “selling kidneys to buy mobile phones” was rampant . From iPhone 5
From the beginning, Apple stabilized the fall conference in September and then officially went on sale in the days following tens of days. Each September is also considered the annual “Spring Festival Night” for the tech industry.
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In these years, the iPhone has stabilized launch time and production capacity. The chaotic period seems to have been the last century. We are also used to the annual iPhone arriving as scheduled.
However, in this special year, all kinds of news shows that this year’s “Spring Festival Night” may not come on time.
How difficult is this year?
According to the Wall Street Journal, people familiar with the matter said this fall’s iPhone is likely to be released in batches.
There’s a ton of iPhone news this year, and product planning has basically been confirmed: Two iconic Pro products and two mid-to-high-end products similar to the iPhone 11 are placed.
Supply chain sources said that as the new corona virus has weakened global consumer demand and disrupted manufacturing production for Asian supply chain companies, two more highly positioned flagship iPhones will be launched later. . Probability is this name) will try to guarantee the normal launch in September.
The report mentions that Apple generally releases new iPhone models in mid-September and begins selling them at the end of the month. For this reason, mass production generally increases in early summer and accumulates stocks around August. Although Apple will continue to produce some new mobile phones from July to September, people familiar with the situation said this year’s mass production progress will be delayed by about a month.
This year should have been an iPhone performance year. Data shows that last year is the first time since 2015 that iPhone shipments have dropped below 200 million units. Obviously, both consumers and Apple are dormant waiting for the 5G replacement.
This year, Apple introduced BOE as a supply chain, which may lower the selling price. UBI Research analysts said the 5.4-inch iPhone 12 is likely to start below $ 700 because the BOE display cuts costs; while the 6.1-inch version, due to the same update to the OLED screen, the price will be slightly higher, reaching 750 US Dollars.
In comparison, last year’s iPhone 11 started at $ 699 and RMB started at 5,499. There will be some discounts on e-commerce channels.
The two Pro models continue with the large and small screen versions of Pro and Pro Max. The 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Pro and 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max can cost the same as previous-generation products. Starting at $ 999 and $ 1099.
Today, 100% recovery of the global supply chain is obviously not realistic. The degree of recovery in the global epidemic is different. After Chinese control is better, the epidemic in the United States has worsened and interregional collaboration is difficult. For the first time, Apple even allowed engineers to bring the engineering machine home for remote work and guide Chinese partners to assemble it via video and photos, but this not only reduced the efficiency and accuracy of the work, but who also faced the risk of leakage.
In 2017, the first iPhone X with a full-screen design was postponed for two months due to production difficulties, while the iPhone 8 in the same year was released as scheduled in September. For this year, Apple has encountered fewer difficulties than manufacturers in 2017.
In this analogy, the good news for Apple is that the iPhone X, which was the most expensive at the time, had the highest sales in Apple’s iPhone business in the second year after the iPhone X launched.
However, it may be more difficult to replicate this year’s heat.
The Wall Street Journal report mentions that Apple plans to cut its expected shipments by up to 20% in the second half of the year. It is unclear whether the 2020 reduction will be offset in 2021.
And Tianfeng Securities Guo Mingji also suggested paying attention to the impact of the consumer drop on iPhone demand in this month’s report. In his report, he estimated that iPhone shipments will decrease by 10-15% in 2020, and annual sales will be 165-175 million. Department
The price of the iPhone 12 can be very attractive, but in this particular year of this year, it is still unknown how low the channel provider the discount price can be, and the Pro version has been difficult to sell, along with problems with capacity is even worse.
Millimeter wave
The epidemic disrupted the global supply chain and its impact on Apple is quite obvious. In addition to the epidemic, improving the communication system is also an important reason.
The United States chose the millimeter wave as the focus of the initial 5G deployment. Millimeter wave refers to electromagnetic waves in the 30 GHz-300 GHz frequency range, with higher frequency bands than millimeter waves. Theoretically, the owner has a faster speed, which can exceed 1 Gbps. However, its coverage will be very small. Operators must build a large number of base stations, even in communities. The deployment of millimeter waves is difficult. In the past, it has never been used on cellular networks.
The reality is that the progress of the 5G millimeter wave has seriously slowed down the progress of the Pro version of the new iPhone.
Guo Mingji said in the report that there is a potential risk of delay for models that support 5G millimeter waves. In April of this year, the iPhone 12 compatible with the 5G millimeter wave has undergone changes in the design of the packed antenna (AiP), which has caused delays in production. Furthermore, the relevant testing laboratory has been closed and cannot provide certification services. Apple has decided to design its own packaged antenna module instead of using existing antenna modules on the market, which has caused delays.
In January of this year, a report published by Susquehanna analysts stated that Apple can only launch 5G centimeter-wave compatible mobile phones of less than 6 GHz in 2020. Models that support mmWave may not be produced in small quantities until 2021. .
Earlier, according to Bloomberg News, former Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich criticized the Trump administration’s strategy of launching 5G wireless technology, saying that in the face of Huawei’s powerful competitor, the United States risks losing its position as leadership. It is still too early to decide the success or failure of 5G frequency bands, but the high millimeter wave requirements for technical indicators have brought certain difficulties to terminal manufacturers in the initial stage, and the cost is difficult to control .
DIGITIMES Research analyst Huang Yazhi noted that the minimum price for cell phones that support millimeter waves is $ 1,000. One of the reasons for the increase in cost comes from the millimeter wave antenna modules. To improve directionality and signal strength, greatly increasing design difficulty.
The North American market continues to be Apple’s base of operations. In addition to the United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries, they will gradually implement millimeter wave networks. Especially Apple. An iPhone is likely to be in service for 2-3 years. RF performance is critical. The iPhone still needs to use millimeters. Wave is focused on outperforming 5G support.
In short, the epidemic has affected production, and 5G replacement technology is strict. The possibility that this year’s new iPhone is on the market is getting smaller. Analysts are more optimistic that the iPhone 12 Pro that supports 5G millimeter waves will not be available until the fourth quarter, and pessimistic expectations have already reached the first half of next year.
