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Original title: Brexit negotiations have entered a critical week! If the UK and EU can get closer,GBPI wish the sword refers to 1.34
On November 8, market analyst Stuart Biggs wrote an article this week that is highly critical of British Prime Minister Johnson. Either you will reach a trade deal with the European Union or risk a breakdown in negotiations while avoiding disagreements with US President-elect Biden over controversial Brexit legislation. People familiar with the matter said the most likely situation is that this week’s intense negotiations may push the two sides closer together, but it is not enough to argue and reach an agreement before this weekend.
Brexit negotiations enter crucial week
After eight months of negotiations, Johnson and European Commission President Von der Lein made a phone call last weekend to plan a way to reach a trade deal before the November 15 deadline set by both parties. However, some important differences between the UK and the EU have yet to be overcome, including so-called fair trade rules and access to UK fishing waters. These problems hampered the progress of the negotiations from the beginning.
Britain’s top Brexit negotiator Frost and Britain’s top Brexit negotiator Barnier will try to resolve their differences in the coming days. But as they do so, the incident in the British Parliament may further deteriorate the relationship between the two parties and may still ruin the deal.
Johnson confirmed that he is moving forward with legislation to amend part of the Brexit deal he struck with the European Union last year. A key vote in the upper house is scheduled for November 9.
Johnson said in an interview that the parliamentary calendar is still moving forward. He believes that the “Internal Market Act” is vital to the economic functioning of the UK after Brexit. The bill is controversial because it gives the UK the power to unilaterally rewrite the rules of trade with Northern Ireland after Brexit; This is one of the most controversial issues in the entire EU Brexit process. The British government stated that this legislation may violate the law in “specific and limited ways”.
Although the House of Lords may remove the most controversial clause on Monday, Johnson is not expected to make concessions. One official said the government faces serious failure in the upper house, but plans to try to reverse these changes when the bill goes to the lower house.
The important calendars affecting the Brexit deal are as follows:
Mid-November may be the last time to reach a Brexit trade deal and implement it before the end of the year;
From 23 to 26 November, the European Parliament will hold a plenary session, in which there will be an opportunity to approve any agreement;
From 10 to 11 December, the EU summit will be held in Brussels;
From 14 to 17 December, the European Parliament will hold the last plenary session of this year, which is the last chance to ratify the agreement;
On December 31, the Brexit transition period ended;
The European Union took legal action over the UK Internal Market Act, and the UK denied being in conflict with Biden over Brexit.
The EU is taking legal action against the UK over the Internal Market Act, and European leaders have asked Johnson to drop the controversial trade-related provisions in Northern Ireland as a price to reach a broader deal. Although the government’s decision to push for legislation is unlikely to interrupt the negotiation itself, its reaction in parliament and outside it can foster mistrust and cast a shadow on the negotiation.
The Johnson administration must be concerned with more than just the EU’s response. In September this year, the publication of the bill provoked an angry reaction from Biden and four high-ranking members of the United States Congress. They warned Johnson that any future trade deal between the UK and the US will be based on maintaining the peace process in Northern Ireland and preventing the return of a hard border in Ireland, which is what the bill threatens to do.
On November 8, British Foreign Secretary Raab denied that Britain had a conflict with the president-elect of the United States, Biden, over Brexit.
Raab said he is confident in solving the problems related to Northern Ireland in a way that does not damage relations. In an interview, he said that the British government has assured Biden’s team that they “have no intention of jeopardizing” the peace process in Ireland.
Raab also said that while the British government listens very carefully to the views of the United States, it will not change its strategy on the Internal Market Act.
He noted that Biden will take over after the Brexit transition period ends on December 31.
Raab asserted that Britain and the United States can handle all these problems carefully and correctly. What Americans are looking for are future opportunities, including cooperation on epidemic and climate change issues.
Negotiations this week may bring the UK and the EU closer together, but they are not enough to reach an agreement before this weekend.
According to officials familiar with the negotiations, the most likely scenario is that another week of intense negotiations will push the two sides to come together even more, but it is not enough to discuss and reach an agreement before this weekend. If most of the work can be completed by January 1 of next year, political leaders can choose how to tackle one or two unfinished business.
Another situation is that the negotiations fall apart, although this is not what both parties want. Misjudging the opposing side has always been an issue in Brexit negotiations. The two sides can also agree to extend the negotiations beyond the deadline before the end of this month, or even until December.
It is not impossible to reach an agreement this week. But the biggest disagreement between the UK and the EU – especially in the fisheries sector – is quickly becoming too politicized to resolve through negotiation, leaving the problem to Johnson and European leaders.
GBP to USD
Asian markets continued to rally in early trading Monday, hitting a two-month high of 1.3193 since Sept. 7, which is just one step away from the 1.32 mark. On the one hand, under US political risks, the US dollar exchange rate continued under pressure, causing non-US currencies to collectively strengthen. On the other hand, Bank of England officials gave positive clues about the economic outlook, and the Brexit negotiation process is also turning optimistic, countering the earlier shock caused by the fermentation of the European epidemic.
As the US elections enter the litigation and disputes stage, the bottom line will continue to be protracted, which will have a significant negative impact on your future fiscal policy, so
Dollar index
The market outlook will remain sluggish for a considerable period of time, which is in contrast to previous optimistic expectations. On the other hand, the trend of the pound has basically shed the previous negative drag and the uptrend that has been reconfirmed since the end of September is consolidating further.
Huitong.com believes that,As the UK and the European Union begin a new round of negotiations this week,GBP to USDLooking at the 1.32 mark on the market outlook, after the breakthrough, you will look at the September highs of regional resistance of 1.3402-1.3482; conversely, if the political stalemate in the United States is resolved beforehand and the Brexit storm resumes, the exchange rate will test the 60-day moving average after retreating at the 1.31 mark Cut support to 1, 3017. Investors should heed the speech by Bank of England Governor Bailey.
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GBP to USD
Daily chart)
15:02, November 9, Beijing time,
GBP to USD
Report 1.3185 / 87.
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