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Original caption: Baotuan shares plummeted, “good Moutai” failed, how will the tight capital balance affect A shares?
During the Spring Festival, the A-share market closed, foreign markets performed well. Britain’s FTSE 100, Russia’s RTS, Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng were among the top winners. The Nikkei 225 reached a 30-year high. Two business days after February 10, US stocks moved higher (US stocks closed for President’s Day on February 15) and all three major stock indices posted gains. Nasdaq and S&P 500 were up 0.88% and 0.64% respectively.
From February 16 to 17, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.90% and 1.10% respectively, surpassing 31,000 points for the first time since June 2018.
The “teammates” are ready and several institutions have also predicted that A-shares will get a “good start” on the first day after the holidays. However, on the 18th, A shares opened higher and fell in early trading.CSI 300 IndexAfter reaching an all-time high (5930.91 points) in early trading, it quickly sank and finally closed 0.68% down; Shenzhen Component Index closed 1.22% down; the ChiNext index fell 2.74% and the intraday fall exceeded 3%.
In terms of individual stocks, Baotuan stocks, led by liquor stocks, suffered a large-scale setback, while pro-cyclical stocks rose across the board. Stock prices in traditional industries like oil, coal, and securities companies have risen. What is the reason for the contrasting phenomenon? Is it just a short-term adjustment or a preview of the next round of structural differentiation? Has the logic of the stock market rise in the Year of the Ox changed?
Baotuan shares plummeted
Wind data shows that while the stock market has not risen as much as previous market expectations, the rise and fall of individual stocks are still divided. Of the 4,058 commercial stocks in the two cities, 3,512 were up, representing 86.5%. The industries and individual stocks the fund was pooled into had fallen further, and this time, it is no longer “good for Maotai.” .
The wind spirits index fell 3.03% and only 6 of the 18 stocks that comprise it rose slightly.Shunxin Agriculture(000860.SZ) fell to 9.4%,Luzhou Laojiao（000568.SZ） 、Shuijingfang（600779.SH） 、Alcoholic liquor（000799.SZ） 、This world(603369.SH) led the decline. Half of the stocks that make up the New Energy Vehicle Index (930997) fell.Yiwei lithium power（-6.67%） 、Blessing materials(-6.7%) and many other stocks led the fall,Dangsheng Technology(300073.SZ) closed 10.61% lower.
The reporter examined the data and found that among the ten most strongly held fund stocks in the fourth quarter of 2020, onlyPing An from China(601318.SH) andLongji Actions(601012.SH) 2 Stock prices rose and the rest fell.
Among them, the third largest share of the fundMidea Group(000333.SZ) fell further, the stock price fell below 100 yuan, heavy volume plummeted 8.23% .The largest holdings of the fundKweichow moutai(600519.SH) is a growth change before the holidays, down 5%, the stock price closed at 2471 yuan / share, the market value has declined by about 150 billion yuan. Also, Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ),Mindray Medical（300760.SZ） 、Luxshare Accuracy(002475.SZ) fell more than 5%.
In the fourth quarter of 2020, the top ten public fund holdings increased and only two stocks increased, in addition to Kweichow Moutai and Midea Group, includingHikvision(-7.11%), Luzhou Laojiao (-6.88%),WuXi AppTec(-7.08%) A total of 5 shares fell more than 5%.
It is worth noting that the new funds were active before the holidays. Wind data shows that, as of February 8, 26 active partial equity funds had been established that month, with an average issue size of 3.49 million yuan, a drop of almost 40% from 5.68 billion yuan in January. . As of February 10, the 215 new funds that have been established since the beginning of the year have raised a total of 707.511 million yuan. In the past, the post-holiday fundraising plan is still not small.
As the top-ranked fund managers are more popular when it comes to fundraising, they have strengthened the performance of their large holdings and the internal structure of the fund, resulting in food and beverage with the highest involvement (with liquor as leader) among the principals. 10% of active products in 2020.), medicine and new energy have performed well in early 2021.
Was the “unhinged prestige” of the first day after the holidays a manifestation of the weakening of institutional holdings?
Xia Guangming, manager of the Future Star Fund of Private Equity, told reporters that under the influence of the gradual implementation of vaccines and fiscal stimulus, the current market focus is on recovery and inflation. Cyclical stocks represented by basic chemicals performed well. In comparison, the shares of the previous block have diverged, because the reason for their increase is mainly due to lack of liquidity. If the pace of relaxation changes, profitability will inevitably be under pressure.
On the other hand, after the continued rise in Baotuan shares, valuations are generally at a high level. Cyclical stocks performed strongly, attracting capital inflows from the market. This puts pressure on Baotuan shares. From a medium-term perspective, Baotuan stocks need time to digest their elevated valuations, and cyclical stocks may have staggered pulses.
Hao Xinming, manager of the Fangxin Wealth Investment Fund, also told reporters that the relaxation of high-group stocks indicates that funds will flow into more profitable sectors once the earnings are settled. For example, the epidemic has revolutionized industries such as ferrous metals, coal, tourism, etc., of future market probabilities and profit rates. These industries are better. “But I think there are still opportunities to hold group shares. As the main line of the market, it will not end before the end of the market. When the capital adjustment is completed, it will form an increase in sync with the increase in liquidity.”
Short-term financing “tight balance”
What happened to liquidity?
Looking back at the central bank’s open market operations around the Spring Festival since 2010, we can find that liquidity is generally released before the year, with an average net investment of about 85.6 billion yuan over the years. , and liquidity often recovers after the year. , with an average net return of about 134.5 billion yuan over the years.
However, the central bank’s open market operations this year are different than in previous years.
A week before the holiday, the currency input amount was 230 billion yuan, the currency withdrawal amount was 280 billion yuan, and the total currency withdrawal amount was 50 billion yuan; the reverse buyback amount was 230 billion yuan and the reverse buyback withdrawal amount was 280 billion yuan Invest 50 billion yuan.
Therefore, the agency expects that the probability of a substantial net return after the holidays as in previous years is not high.
However, on the first trading day of the Year of the Ox (February 18), the central bank announced the launch of a one-year MLF operation of 200 billion yuan, with a winning interest rate of 2.95% and another MLF maturity scale. 200 billion this month. The central bank also simultaneously launched a 20 billion yuan reverse buyback operation with a 7-day period.
At the same time, 280 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations expired, plus the 180 billion yuan that expired during the Spring Festival and the 100 billion yuan that expired on the 18th. The central bank had a net return of 260 billion yuan. yuan on the 18th.
“The biggest concern in the market right now is liquidity,” Yan Kaiwen, chief strategy analyst at Huaxin Securities, told reporters. “The stock market is currently in a phase of rising valuations, and valuations are affected primarily by two factors. The first is appetite for risk. The second is liquidity.” He believes A shares are still They are in the valuation expansion period.With the tightening of macro-liquidity in the future, micro-liquidity will be affected more or less, which will affect A shares. Valuation has a negative impact.
The open market maturity scale for three consecutive weeks after the Spring Festival was 480 billion yuan, 50 billion yuan and 0 yuan, for a total of 530 billion yuan. From a short-term liquidity perspective, the open market has less maturity after the holidays, the overall demand for funds is not strong, and the liquidity environment may be more favorable than before the holidays.
Since the Spring Festival, 61 partial capital funds have issued a total of approximately 375.2 billion yuan. A total of 55 active part-capital funds are currently being subscribed or about to be subscribed, of which 35 have announced the upper limit of fundraising, with an average upper limit of 7.5 billion yuan. The total fundraising scale from February to early March is 304 to 364 billion yuan. This means that from the beginning of the year to the beginning of March, the scale of issuance of public funds can range from 680 billion to 740 billion yuan. If restrictions on the establishment of public offerings in the initial stage are considered, the short-term funds available to institutions can reach 900 billion yuan.
“There are also reasons why public funds funds issued before and after the year have not yet entered the market, and Xinji funds will gradually enter the market.” Therefore, Yan Kaiwen believes that the trend at the beginning of the year is not as expected and does not mean the future market. “But if the central bank continues to be more stringent, the market will officially enter a tight equilibrium state, and the share price should provide more support to the profitability of the company. The share price supported only by the valuation will be greatly reduced. “
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