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Original title: What impact does Biden’s economic proposal have on the global market? Trade policies are more open, supporting the strengthening of financial supervision and low interest rates are expected to continue …
According to US media estimates on the 7th, the Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Biden won more than 270 electoral votes in the 2020 US presidential elections. According to the electoral rules, if the validity of the final result is confirmed, the candidate wins. presidential election that first obtains 270 electoral votes, Biden alsoTwitterThe certification was reviewed for: United States was elected president.
Image Source: FOX News Network
At around 8 pm local time 7 (9 pm Beijing time 8), Biden delivered an address to the nation in Wilmington, Delaware, as president-elect of the United States. Harris, a partner at Biden, also spoke in the United States. The vice president-elect delivered a speech at the local level.
As the results of the US general election became clear last week, the US capitalmarketThe performance is also significantly higher in the crash:
Data from the early hours of 7th hour from Beijing showed that US stocks closed mixed on Friday, but the three major stock indices posted their biggest weekly gains since April. Among them, the Dow rose 6.9% weekly, the S&P 500 index rose 7.3% and the Nasdaq rose 9%. In the European market, despite the severe local epidemic, the European stock market also appeared for four consecutive days under the influence of favorable factors in the US electoral situation. Rising situation.
If Biden is finally successful as president, it will beinternational marketWhat is the impact? Can the trend of globalization in the hands of Biden be clearly defended?
US economic policy is expected to be more secure
Since the beginning of this year, the US stock market has experienced substantial volatility due to the general economic situation: On March 9, March 12, March 16, and March 19, the shares of The US experienced four “circuit breaks” in 10 days (excessive decline) Automatically stop trading), the Dow Jones once fell below the 20,000 mark, shocking the world.
However, in the following 7+ months, the US stock indices have shown a significant rebound. Take the S&P 500 Index as an example. In early September this year, the index rose once to a high of 3,588 points, which was significantly higher than before the outbreak of the new corona pneumonia epidemic. The highest level.
What impact will Biden have on the future trend of the US market? In this sense, some experts remain cautious when interviewing them.
China International Economic Exchange CenterChief investigator Zhang Yansheng analyzed the “Daily Business News” reporter in an interview that the apparent current uptrend in the US market is mainly due to the judgment that Biden can provide greater certainty to the future development of the United States. Biden has a huge advantage over Trump, who lacks certainty.
But at the same time, we must also see that proponents of Biden’s policies emphasize tax increases and other measures, which may have some impact on the efficiency of the US economy. In the long run, this can have a negative effect on the performance of the US stock market.
ConstantGreat economyDean of the Research InstituteRen zepingAnalysts believe that in trade, Biden does not support the use of tariff weapons and tends to unite allies to put pressure on other countries. And Trump supports the “unfairDumpingAnd the subsidy countries impose punitive tariffs andAntidumpingpoll.
Zhao Wei, chief economist at Kaiyuan Securities, also analyzed the “Daily Business News” reporter. Unlike Trump, Biden internally supports tax increases and opposesTax reductionForeign advocates scrap high tariffs and oppose trade wars.Before the election, BidenborrowA more moderate external stance has won the market’s favor; but at the same time, thecompanyThere are some concerns about future earnings prospects.
However, there is also much evidence that Biden’s previous political careerthe companyThe attitude is relatively soft, which can be an important variable affecting the future performance of the US stock market. For example, Biden has long been on the side of lenders on the lending issue. been considered a moderate and will not attack the interests of capital. During the campaign, Biden did not appear to show strict supervision.financial worldthe purpose.
In the regulatory policies released during this campaign, Biden supports strengthening financial oversight and strengthening technology companiesAntitrustHowever, you are rightcleaveBig tech companies have reservations.
The US market still faces a number of long-term problems
There are also views that whether Trump or Biden are elected president, the current US market still faces long-term problems.
Ren Zeping, Dean of the Evergrande Economic Research Institute, discusses the long run after the 2008 financial crisiscoinThe relaxed environment has helped US economic growth, but the capital marketReal economyLong-term misalignment carries huge financial risks. This year’s epidemic was the fuse, which caused strong volatility in the capital market. In March, the United States stock market experienced four circuit breakers.InlandChu passed “zerointerest rateWhile measures like unlimited quantitative easing have barely blocked the transmission from liquidity crisis to financial crisis, it also means that the capital market has weaker anti-risk capabilities and the financial system is more fragile.
Regarding other important factors affecting the performance of the fiscal and monetary policy of the stock market, the Economic Policy of the China Policy Research InstituteCommitteeDeputy Director Xu Hongcai analyzed a “Daily Business News” reporter that Biden is expected to expand fiscal spending and the fiscal deficit will expand relatively quickly, which means that expansionary fiscal policy will not continue to be withdrawn and will be low.interest rateThe environment must continue to be maintained.
In addition to capital market performance, the trend of economic globalization during the next president’s administration will also be a matter of global concern.
As we all know, in the past four years, the then-US government adopted a relatively disgusting attitude toward multilateralism and economic globalization. If Biden rules successfully, will this situation change significantly?
In this regard, Xu Hongcai said in an interview with journalists that there is a high probability that Biden will return to some practices during the Obama administration and will rejoin a series ofInternational organizationsAnd international agreements. It is also expected to play a more active role at the platform level of the WTO (World Trade Organization) and the G20 (Group of 20) .Back to CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive CrossThe Pacific OceanPartnership Agreement) is also a possible option for Biden.
Ren Zeping also believes that Biden supports free trade and supports the WTOMultilateral tradeSystem, the future is expected to promote the restoration of regional and global trade relations. At the same time, its more open trade policy can ease trade resistance between the United States and the world as a whole and boost the global economy.
(Source: Daily Economic News)
(Responsible editor: DF532)
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