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Original title: Blockbuster: The full text of the fourteenth five-year plan suggestions is here. A shares are restless! What areas have opportunities? The institution is boiling!
Summary
[Pesopesado:Eltextocompletodelassugerenciasdeldecimocuartoplanquinquenalestállegandoacompartirlainquietud¿QuéáreastienenoportunidadesLainstituciónestáhirviendo】Alas18!?!00horasdehoyXinhuanetpublicóeltextocompletodelas”PropuestasdelComitéCentraldelPartidoComunistadeChinasobrelaformulacióndelDecimocuartoPlanQuinquenaldeDesarrolloEconómicoySocialNacionalyObjetivosaLargoPlazopara2035″(enadelantelas”Proposals”)conmásde20000palabras(Noticiaseconómicasdiarias)[Pesopesado:¡Eltextocompletodelassugerenciasdeldecimocuartoplanquinquenalestállegandoacompartirlainquietud!¿Quéáreastienenoportunidades?¡Lainstituciónestáhirviendo!】Alas18:00horasdehoyXinhuanetpublicóeltextocompletodelas”PropuestasdelComitéCentraldelPartidoComunistadeChinasobrelaformulacióndelDecimocuartoPlanQuinquenaldeDesarrolloEconómicoySocialNacionalyObjetivosaLargoPlazopara2035″(enadelantelas”Propuestas”)conmásde20000palabras(Noticiaseconómicasdiarias)
At 6 pm todayXinhuanetThe full text of the “Proposals of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on the formulation of the fourteenth five-year plan for national economic and social development and the long-term goals for 2035” (hereinafter the “Proposals”) was published, with more than 20,000 words.
Image source:Xinhuanet
In the “Proposal”, it was emphasized once again “to fully implement the share issuance registration system, establish a standard exclusion mechanism and increase the proportion of direct financing. At the same time, it emphasizes “inheriting the central position of innovation in the general situation of China’s modernization and taking scientific and technological independence as a country.strategySupport, facing the frontiers of world science and technology, facing the main economic battlefield, facing the great needs of the country, facing people’s lives and health, the in-depth implementation of the rejuvenation strategy of the country through science and education, the strategy of strengthening the country with talents,Innovation-Driven Development Strategy, Improve the national innovation system and accelerate the construction of a technological power “
marketOr welcome short-term hot spots and structural opportunities
For the official launch of the “Recommendations”, there is a market analysis and the 14th Five-Year Plan clarifiesindustryThe development direction is also expected to further push the funds to look to the next year, which is expected to boost the market’s risk appetite.
Guosheng Securities believes thatWith reference to historical experience, market performance before and after the publication of the Five-Year Plan was mostly positive, bringing short-term market hot spots and structural opportunities.This “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan” is particularly important as it takes on China’s historic mission to accelerate economic transformation and enhance and win the protracted war against science and technology. At present, China’s economic development, especially innovation and upgrading of high-tech industries, is facing unprecedented external constraints. The next five years will be a critical time window for China to break the shackles of science and technology and achieve economic transformation and improvement. For this reason, this “XIV Five-Year Plan” will also assume its historic mission and become a key program for China’s economic transformation and improvement in the future and for winning the protracted war against science and technology.
Huatai Valuesthink,investmentThe pace can be divided into three stages: the early gestation stage, the expected fulfillment stage, and the planning implementation stage. Excess returns of relevant industry indices or “high at both ends and low in the middle” are planned.
The expected gestation stage, that is, the research of the five-year plan thought and the stage of preparation of the “Proposal”, the relative index is relativelyThe Shanghai Composite IndexThere is a strong excess of profitability.
Planned compliance stage, ie after the official release of the planning “Outline”, until the mid-term evaluationreportDuring the release period, the market’s attention is expected to return to normal after landing and the overperformance of related indices is expected to be low.
In the planning implementation stage, according to the launch and implementation of various special plans, the profitability of the industry is expected.to get betterMarket attention increased and the excess returns of the related indices strengthened again.
Huatai ValuesThe investment pace of the “XIV Five-Year Plan” is expected to be divided into three stages: during the planning gestation period (2019-2020 / 10), the relevant industry indices will show higher excess returns; in the initial stage of expected realization (2020 / 11-12) related indices Crashes; in the subsequent period (2021), the relevant industry indices fell relative to the Shanghai Stock Exchange; In the implementation phase (end 2021-2025 / 10), the excess returns of the related industry indices strengthened again.
These areas can benefit
Regarding the impact of the “Proposal” on actions A, the institution also clearly delimited the areas of concern.
Tianfeng ValuesHe roughly summarized the following market lines that can benefit from the fourteenth five-year plan:
Image source:Tianfeng ValuesInvestigation report
Ping An Securities listed six key industries that deserve attention in the fourteenth five-year plan:
○ Key Industry 1: Technological Innovation and Independence (TMT + Medical Biology).
○ Key Industry 2: Manufacturing Power and Modernization (High Endmanufacturing)。
○ Three key industries: expanding domestic demand and consumption.
○ Four key industries: energy security and green development (new energy + environmental protection).
○ Five key industries: national security and military modernization.
○ Sixth key industry: food security and agricultural modernization.
Huatai ValuesThe policy is currently believed to be in a gestation period, focusing on investment opportunities in all five directions, including theNew energy, new energy vehicles, national defense industry,industryThe Internet, Food safetyAnd other addresses; furthermore, in accordance with recent national policies,Rural revitalization (horse industry, digital field, etc.), construction and smart constructionindustrialization,industryBig data, Reform of state-owned companiesWaiting for direction or worthy of attention.
During the period of the “14th five-year plan”Industrial policyThe five main lines:
○ New energy under the concept of green development;
○ Digital economy, Big Data,Industrial internetExpect the explosive growth of new infrastructure;
○ Health, tourism, etc.Happiness industry；
○ AgricultureIndustrialization、landAccelerated reform
○ Depending on metropolitan agglomerations and metropolitan areas, more concentratedRegional developmentIn thinking, traditional infrastructure can make up for its shortcomings.
(Source: Daily Economic News)
(Editor in charge: DF537)
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