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Original title: The confidence of the bulls of gold gradually increases Source: Original
NovemberGold priceThe decline accelerated, the range fell above $ 200 an ounce, and the domestic market fell to 46 yuan per gram. Bulls sentiment was hit hard; As December entered, the price of gold entered a rebound mode. At present, London spot gold has broken above $ 1,850 an ounce and is trying to challenge $ 1875-1905 / ounce resistance, the price of gold on the inner disk is also trying to hit the 400 mark again. yuan / gram, and bulls’ confidence is rekindled.
Under the loose money cycle, the medium and long-term market will negotiate inflation expectations. Monetary policy will remain in a relaxed cycle in 2021, and commodity prices will generally strengthen. With the gradual control of the epidemic, the world economy is expected to gradually recover, and inflation expectations will also rise. Even if the nominal interest rate remains unchanged, the real market return is expected to decline. This will continue to support gold prices in the medium and long term. From a real interest rate perspective, the structural bull market for gold is not over yet; From a policy perspective, monetary policy has laid the foundation for the bull market in gold prices and the pace of fiscal policy will affect market expectations, which in turn affects the pace of price fluctuations of precious metals.
In the short and medium term, the market remains concerned about issues such as the epidemic and the progress of vaccines, Brexit and the US stimulus bill. According to the experience of the epidemic and China’s economic recovery, the basic path to global economic recovery is to control the epidemic first, and then enterprises begin to build one after another, economic activities gradually resume, and finally the emergence Partial epidemic does not affect economic development. In November, vaccine research and development continued to show positive results. Market expectations about the speed of the global economy recovery increased and policy overweight expectations weakened, causing gold prices to fall. However, at present, there are still many problems in the specific promotion of vaccines. The number of deaths from new coronary pneumonia in Europe and the United States is increasing. The number of new cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States exceeds 150,000 per day. As Christmas and other holidays approach, the short-term epidemic is difficult to improve. Although the UK and other countries have started large-scale vaccinations domestically, the total number of people who can inject remains limited for the first quarter of next year.
Advancing the vaccine work requires financial support. Therefore, the market expects a new round of economic stimulus bills in the United States in the near future. On December 8 local time, US Secretary of the Treasury Mnuchin and Speaker of the US House of Representatives Pelosi carried out an economic stimulus bill. He spoke and unveiled a new $ 916 billion corona virus assistance plan and if the plan can be implemented smoothly, it will increase the appeal of gold as a hedge against inflation risks.
At the same time, geographic factors like Brexit are also topics that the market has been paying close attention to recently. In 2016, it had a great impact on the market. Considering that the Brexit deadline is approaching December 31, this event can have an impact on the gold market at any time, and investors should pay close attention. Since the US dollar and gold have safe haven properties, it is possible that the US dollar and gold will rise again together.
After testing support around $ 1,765 an ounce, the price of gold rallied strongly, although technically it remains bullish in the short term. If the price of gold can stay above US $ 1,850 / ounce, we believe that the price of gold has a chance to test the November high of US $ 1,900 / ounce. The key support below the medium term remains the 200-day moving average. In the current market structure, we believe that there are good buying points below the medium-term support level.
(Author unit: Hongyuan Futures)
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