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Original title: Germany, with its excellent early-stage anti-epidemic, ushered in the second severe test of the epidemic Expert: Cases will continue to increase but speed will decrease
[环球时报-环球网报道 记者倪浩]The second wave of the epidemic in Europe is fierce and the number of new cases in a single day in many countries remains high. On November 7, Europe set a record 327,100 cases of the epidemic so far, making the global epicenter of the epidemic persist in Europe. The locomotive of the European economy, Germany, with its superb medical technology and abundant medical resources, also “fell” in the second wave of the epidemic in Europe. According to reports, at 10 local time, there were more than 18,000 new cases in Germany every day. Why did the German epidemic work well in the initial stage of the epidemic? And why is it now affected by the second wave of the epidemic? Where is the European epidemic going? In this regard, a journalist from the “Global Times” interviewed Lu Mengji, a professor at the Institute of Virology at the University of Essen, Germany, who has long been involved in the research of viral and immunological infections.
Why did Germany perform well in the initial stage of the epidemic?
Lu Mengji told the “Global Times” reporter that Germany has a high level of medical technology, abundant resources and a strong political bent. Although the basic principles of prevention and control of epidemics in European countries are consistent, the starting point for prevention and control in Germany in the initial stage of the epidemic is in fact higher than that of other countries.
In Lu Mengji’s eyes, the German anti-epidemic model can be called a “textbook”, which includes large-scale testing and timely isolation of patients to block the chain of transmission; non-medical interventions necessary to protect high-risk groups; development and production of drugs and vaccines Expect a whole series of measures. In March, the German government launched a six-week lockdown measure, halting large-scale activities, restricting the number of people gathering in public places and expanding the capacity of hospitals to treat new crown patients. In general, the number of infections and deaths in Germany is lower than in other European countries.
Compared to Germany, Italy was almost out of control at the beginning of the epidemic, but there are objective reasons behind this. Lu Mengji analyzed that the epidemic first broke out in the mountainous areas of northern Italy, and the treatment capacity in these areas is poor and the proportion of elderly people in the local population is very high. The sudden arrival of the epidemic took these areas by surprise, so the epidemic spread very quickly. There is no similar situation in Germany. On the contrary, compared to other European countries, the family structure and lifestyle characteristics of German society also played an important role in the prevention and control of the epidemic. In European countries such as France and Spain, the phenomenon of living under one roof has been common for several generations, and the spread of the virus between family members is relatively serious. However, German families have fewer and scattered residences, which is very beneficial for the prevention and control of the epidemic. Furthermore, the cooperation of all strata of German society and the cooperation of the people are relatively excellent.
Why was Germany affected by the second wave of the epidemic?
Lu Mengji believes that the factors that caused the second rebound of the epidemic in Germany and Europe are diverse. The decrease in temperature and the increase in the transmission capacity of the virus are important reasons. Furthermore, the arrival of fall and winter has increased the frequency of people’s indoor activities and created more opportunities for the spread of the virus. The traceable chain of transmission shows that private homes and nursing homes are the main places where the virus spreads. The security of these places is often overestimated, increasing the risk of virus transmission. Also, young people are not paying much attention to the epidemic. Many asymptomatic infections are unaware of prevention and do not do a good job of protection. Their meetings in bars or various venues have also increased the spread of the new corona virus.
In the early days of the German epidemic, there were only about 200 new cases per day, but now it has soared to 18,000. The prevention and control of the German epidemic is facing a very serious situation. However, Lu Mengji believes that there is no emergency in protecting Germany’s medical resources, and the German government is actively taking steps to prevent it.
Lu Mengji said Germany’s current epidemic prevention measures are simple and clear, and they all start with reducing people-to-people contact, conducting epidemiological investigations, and keeping track of all close contacts of infected people. Starting in early November, catering, tourism and entertainment activities will be suspended, and private gatherings cannot exceed five people for four weeks. To minimize the impact, schools and businesses remain open, and business production and necessary institutional services have never stopped.
But in fact, with the increase in the number of cases, the flow of circulation has become increasingly difficult, and the ins and outs of the spread of the epidemic have become increasingly confused. In difficult circumstances, it is also difficult for the German government to formulate a specially targeted strategy. Lu Mengji pointed out that some families still do not pay enough attention to the epidemic and the transmission of the population still occurs.
What is the future trend of the European epidemic? Expert: it will continue to grow but the speed will decrease
Lu Mengji believes that the number of cases in Europe, including Germany, will increase in the future, but the speed will slow down. Taking Germany as an example, the transmission capacity of a single case has been reduced from 1.4 at the end of September to the current 0.8. However, the increase in cases will continue to put pressure on Germany’s medical resources.
Lu Mengji believes that the new coronavirus infection has spread globally on a large scale, and there is a high probability that it will coexist with humans. However, current research on vaccines has advanced a lot. Therefore, the possibility of using vaccines to control the epidemic is gradually increasing.
Lu Mengji believes that European academics oppose herd immunity in general, noting that this view is not mainstream in Europe. “If there is no vaccine, this can only be done; but now the prospects for vaccines are clear, and in the future Europe will no longer discuss the issue of herd immunity because it is not necessary. From a political and professional perspective, Europe will not will promote natural immunity. “
