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Original title: France intervened to disrupt negotiations, the last four weeks of Brexit are unpredictable
Reporter | Sean
Right now, a year ago, a month before the ‘end’ of Brexit, the British Parliament rejected former Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal three times, and new Prime Minister Johnson risked an early election and got rid of stagnation. One year later, the Brexit transition period will end. The two sides have yet to make progress on the two key issues of fishing rights and fair competition clauses. Related agreements are pending. This time Johnson is closer to a no-deal Brexit.
On the afternoon of December 3 local time, British officials accused France of pressuring the EU to make new demands in the last minute of the negotiations, undermining the progress made in the last 24 hours and causing the prospects of the negotiations are even more rare. Officials in Britain and Europe believe there is no chance of reaching an agreement before this weekend.
According to a Financial Times report, French President Macron asked the UK to retain most of the fishing rights of French fishing vessels in British waters after Brexit. At the same time, he demanded a strict control of state aid and British government subsidies to domestic companies to avoid unfair competition. .
An EU official refuted claims that the EU had made new demands during the negotiations, but admitted that the negotiations were really in trouble.
Fishing rights and fair competition clauses are currently negotiating difficulties. While the UK demands to regain control of its own fisheries resources, the EU is more inclined to maintain the status quo of Member States’ access to British fishing grounds.
In negotiations this week, Barnier, the EU’s top Brexit negotiator, made the latest concession that the EU will reduce its share of fishing rights in British waters by 15% to 18% from current levels. , which is equivalent to 120 million euros. Income. The British side requires EU fishing vessels to return 60% of their fishing quotas, which is less than the 80% previously proposed. The concessions made by both parties cannot yet bridge the huge interest gap.
On the other hand, EU countries want to ensure that the two sides do not lower standards or excessive subsidies so that their companies have an advantage in market competition. The European Union requires the UK to establish a special agency to oversee state financial subsidies to companies and proposes a “ratchet clause” to force both parties to formulate similar environmental and labor regulations.
With regard to the previous two issues, the most affected is France, which faces Great Britain on the other side of the strait. To show his support for his country’s fishermen, French Prime Minister Jean Castex visited Boulogne-sur-Mer, where the country’s largest fishing port is located, and promised not to sacrifice fishing to reach an agreement with the United Kingdom. . But he also proposed that fishermen prepare for change.
The Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium also have close economic ties to the UK and are highly dependent on the latter’s rich fisheries resources.
According to sources familiar with the matter, in a video conference with EU ambassadors on the 2nd, Barnier said that the two sides are considering a transitional agreement on fishing rights, that is, the renegotiation after the deadline will be linked to the trade agreement.
Barnier also said the EU is still looking to reach a fair competition clause with the UK. France warned at the meeting that any agreement on the future relationship between Britain and Europe must include “adequate and just solutions”, and asked Barnier to stand firm. If the British government violates the fair competition agreement, European companies should have the right to sue in British courts.
The French ambassador in Brussels said Paris would rather restart negotiations with the UK in 2021 than rush to an agreement that harms European interests. An EU diplomat revealed on the 3rd that the current consensus among member states is that Barnier has stepped on the red line in negotiations and hopes not to cross the border.
According to EU sources, Barnier may return to Brussels on the 4th to update EU officials and diplomats from various countries. On the 28th of last month, Barnier’s negotiating team resumed face-to-face negotiations with the UK in London.
This week is a critical period for negotiations. EU leaders are scheduled to hold a summit on December 10 and the European Parliament will hold a special meeting on December 28 to vote on the negotiating agreement. If the two parties cannot reach an agreement within this week, it will be difficult to complete the relevant review and paperwork before the end of this year.
A senior British government official believes that there is still the possibility of progress in the negotiations in the coming days, but the negotiating window is gradually closing. The “Brexit” transition period officially ends on December 31, 2020, and the British Parliament has legislated to prohibit the transition period from extending until 2021.
Johnson’s press secretary Allegra Stratton said on the 2nd that the prime minister is still optimistic about reaching a deal, but that he can accept the outcome of a no-deal Brexit.
According to Reuters, the British Chamber of Commerce is expected to introduce a series of new regulations next week. Some of the provisions related to Northern Ireland may run contrary to the Brexit deal reached in January this year. The “Internal Market Act” passed by the lower house of the British Parliament will also be reviewed by Parliament again next week. The bill allows Britain to violate the Brexit deal with the European Union, sparking strong discontent from the European Union and further hardening negotiations.
The European Union accuses the UK of wanting to maintain access to the EU market, but is unwilling to abide by its rules. Britain claimed that the European Union’s unreasonable demands violated its sovereignty.
Some economists believe that although a no-deal Brexit will bring huge losses for both Britain and Europe, the impact on the UK will be even greater in the short term because the UK is more dependent on the EU for trade. Reuters noted that even if the two sides can reach a trade deal, it is likely to be a commodity-level deal. Once the two parties re-establish border control, it will inevitably have an adverse effect on trade.
The UK Office for Budget Responsibility stated last week that in the event of a Brexit deal, the UK’s long-term economic output will still fall by 4%; If the two parties fail to reach a free trade agreement, production will be reduced by another 2%, while inflation and unemployment rates and public debt will increase accordingly.
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