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Summary
[Estrategia del fundador: El impacto de la Conferencia central de trabajo económico y las oportunidades de inversión]What are the lights of the key economic tasks for industrial investment? Judging by the key tasks of core economic work in 2020, technology and consumption remain key areas of political support in the medium and long term. Industry recommendations include: optional consumer industries represented by automobiles and appliances; procyclical industries such as banking, insurance and brokerage; 5G, new energy, semiconductor industry chain, computers, new materials, big data, Internet of things and other strategic emerging industries. industry. (Founder’s Strategic Research)
Main view
1. Central economyjobsmeetingThe general tone is positive, reflectingBackground thinking, Relieved the previousmarketPolicy tightening expectations.
2. Compared with the previous Central Economic Work Conference and this year’s Politburo meeting, this Central Economic Work Conference has added a new part of the “New Development Pattern”, leading eight key tasks, and the expression of the side demand has changed.
3. The Central Conference of Economic Work on the marketshort termIt has a buoyant effect. The medium to long-term market trend depends on changes in fundamentals and maintains the judgment of market disposition at the end and beginning of the year.
4. The key economic job tasks are correct.industryinvestmentWhat are the implications? Judging by the key tasks of core economic work in 2020, technology andconsumptionIt remains a key support area for medium and long-term policies.
5. Suggested attention in the industry: optional consumer industries represented by automobiles, appliances, etc .;Bank、insurance、BrokerageProcyclical industries; 5G, new energy, semiconductorsIndustrial chain, Computers, new materials,Big data, Internet of things, etc.strategySexEmerging industry。
1. The overall tone of the Central Economic Work Conference is positive, reflecting fundamental thinking and alleviating initial market expectations of policy tightening. The overall tone of the conference, next yearmacropoliticalMaintain continuity, policy operations are more accurate and effective, without sharp turns andcoinThe formulation of fiscal policy and fiscal policy have not undergone significant changes, and some areas have made some achievements and the counterfeiting policy has tightened ahead of schedule. From the perspective of the political force, either the eight key tasks or the key areas supported by fiscal and monetary policies, scientific and technological innovation is put first. Next year will be a low pressure year for economic growth and high quality development. And great countryGameIn the context of the current situation, technological innovation will become the common divisor of various policies At the same time, the policy does something but does not do something, adds and subtracts, which avoids financial risks, platformcompanyBoth development and housing issues have clearly defined political boundaries.
2. Compared to the previous Central Conference on Economic Work and this year’s Politburo meeting, this Central Conference on Economic Work has added a new section of “New Pattern of Development”, leading eight key tasks and changes in the expression of the On the demand side. Compared with previous Central Economic Work Conferences, the tone of macroeconomic policy is equivalent to returning to the pre-2019 epidemic. The newly added new development pattern is the concept of a general, direct and dominant type in the tone of the proposed next year’s work before the eight key tasks. , The concept is comparable to that of the first year of the thirteenth five-year plansupplyNext to structural reforms, the core is in the dual cycleOffer sideReform and demand management go hand in hand. Compared to previous years, the key tasks are more systematic and structured. The first four key tasks are systematic work under the new development pattern, and the last four key tasks are areas to focus on next year. Compared to the three Politburo meetings that discussed economic work this year, this Central Economic Work Conference has maintained the same working tone, and there have been some changes in the expression of demand. The December Politburo meeting noted that “demand-side reforms” should be emphasized. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized “demand-side management”, and the industrial level emphasized the importance of technological innovation and independent control capacity of the industrial chain more than before.
3. The Central Economic Work Conference has a short-term momentum for the market The medium to long-term market trend depends on the changes in fundamentals and keeps the judgment of the market disposition at the end of the year. Judging by market trends after the Central Economic Work Conference in the last 10 years, most of them were presented the day after closing. The probability of the market going up in a week has decreased. From the perspective of more than a month, the market trends depend more on changes in fundamentals. At present, the molecular momentum is strong, the central economic work conference has set the tone positively, tightening concerns have been removed, the scope of valuation downgrade is limited, the pattern of Market bull market has not changed and the market layout at the end and beginning of the year will continue.
4. The key tasks of economic work over the yearsIndustrial investmentWhat are the implications? The Central Economic Work Conference will give clear instructions on key tasks for the coming year. With policy support, relevant industries can usher in medium- and long-term rapid development opportunities, and there are industry investment opportunities. Looking back at the 2015 Central Economic Work Conference so far, “three to eliminate, one to reduce and a complement ”(refers mainly to the resolution of excess capacity andreal estateStock reduction), high-quality economic development, and promoting the formation of a strong domestic market have successively become key tasks throughout the year, which have greatly promoted the development of the cycle, the manufacturing, the consumer, technology and other industries. From the perspective of the key tasks of the core economic work in 2020, technology and consumption remain key areas of medium and long-term policy support It is recommended to pay attention to optional consumer industries represented by 1) automobiles and household appliances ;Bank、insurance, Brokerage and other procyclical industries; 3) 5G, new energy, semiconductor industry chain, computers, new materials, big data, Internet of things, etc.Strategic emerging industries。
hazard warning：The epidemic has spread dramatically, the monetary policies of domestic and foreign central banks have tightened ahead of schedule, the economic recovery has not met expectations, and China-US relations have deteriorated considerably.
(Source: Founder Strategy Research)
(Responsible editor: DF506)
I solemnly declare: The purpose of this information is to spread more information, and it has nothing to do with this booth.
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