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At this time of year, we try to sum up last year and look forward to next year. But in the winter of 2020, it seems a bit difficult to sum up.
Just like it was said in the popular New Years movie “Party A and Party B”, every year at the end of the year, we always have a trace of feelings of parting in our hearts, reluctant to part with last year. But for the 2020 special, people seem reluctant to “get lost.”
There are almost 70 million infections worldwide and more than 1.5 million deaths. New data on the corona virus in mid-December has surpassed any war since World War II. People all over the world hope to say goodbye to this painful year as soon as possible; the same is true of the global automobile industry.
In China, the automobile industry has experienced negative growth for the first time in many years in the last two years. With the improvement of consumption and the differentiation of market segments, the car market has become more complex. However, 2020, which originally had high hopes of recovery, ushered in the “black swan” of the epidemic.
The “black swan” will always fly, but the spinning wheels of time cannot go back. The sudden outbreak of the new corona virus interrupted the originally expected “sunshine” from the auto market. The withdrawal of Renault and Luxgen, the fall of Lifan and Zotye, in a sense, is the new crown that has accelerated the decline of these car companies. But on the other hand, heading into the new crown, there are still many car companies moving forward, and even rising against the trend. After the auto market experienced a suspension in the first quarter, a recovery in the second quarter and a rebound in the third quarter, many makes and models have returned to the fast track of growth, showing the industry their strengths, in Wuhan , the epicenter of the epidemic. Dongfeng Honda is the best example.
At this time last year, we issued some “soul questions” for 2020. Now, is the best time to unearth these “time capsules” and examine them again.
We forecast a year ago: “The Chinese auto market will enter a steady growth stage in the early and mid-2020s, maintaining an average annual growth rate of 2-5% without the ‘black swan event’ occurring. In the next ten years, China’s auto market has a high probability of reaching and exceeding the 30 million mark. ” But the “black swan” has just arrived unexpectedly. Whether the total sales of the Chinese auto market can reach the 30 million mark is still an unsolved proposition.
No winter is insurmountable and no spring will not come. In 2020, faced with the double pressure of the epidemic and the downward market, the Chinese auto market has shown strong resilience and potential. In 2020, despite the “lower trough”, China’s auto industry has stood the test and annual car sales promise to reach 25 million vehicles. Therefore, we are still relatively optimistic that if there are no bigger and more serious accidents, the future outlook for China’s auto market will remain positive. Before 2025, China’s auto market is expected to reach or even exceed the 30 million mark.
Similarly, at the time when the new corona virus could not be predicted, we had speculated that 2020 would be a year in which China’s auto market would be “sweeping”. This builds on the big changes that are taking place in the Chinese auto market. Some auto companies are accelerating, while others are struggling to transform, some market segments are full of vitality, and some market segments are gradually shrinking in the “age of stocks.” We foresee the “oblivion” of Cheetah, Zotye, Huatai and Lifan, but we did not foresee the sudden withdrawal of Renault, the rejuvenation of Changan Automobile and the appearance of FAW Hongqi in the luxury brands.
What is certain is that in 2021, competition in the Chinese auto market will only get more intense, with the strong getting stronger and the weak weakening. Among private labels, more members may have to end up in bankruptcy or mergers, reorganization and custody; Among the joint venture brands, more “Dongfeng Renault” may appear, and it may be best to sadly withdraw. In the luxury market, the Chinese brands represented by Hongqi will perform better.
At the end of 2019, we also asked: Can policies really save the Chinese auto market? In fact, if it weren’t for the positive effects of the policies, the new corona epidemic could have a bigger impact on the Chinese auto market.
Since the beginning of the year, many policies have been put in place one after another to boost car consumption and help the auto industry survive the epidemic. On February 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Guiding Opinions on the Orderly Promotion of the Resumption of Work and the Production of Industrial Communication Companies”; On March 13, 23 departments, including the National Development and Reform Commission, jointly issued the “Implementation to Promote the Expansion and Quality of Consumption and Accelerate the Formation of a Strong National Market” Opinions: On March 23, the Ministry of Commerce, the Development and Reform Commission and the Health and Health Commission jointly issued the “Notice of Support for the Resumption of Works and Businesses of Commercial Circulation Companies.”
The executive meeting of the State Council held on March 31 also identified three important measures to promote the consumption of automobiles, including the extension of the subsidy to the purchase of new energy vehicles and the exemption of the tax on the purchase of vehicles that expired to end of 2020 for two years; the central government adopted incentives instead of subsidies. To support the elimination of diesel trucks with the emission standards of China III and below in key areas such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei; For used car dealers to sell used cars, VAT will be applied to 0.5% of sales from May 1 until the end of 2023.
In July, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ministries and commissions jointly issued the “Notice on Launching New Energy Vehicles Into the Field”, which is seen as a major boost for the new energy market in 2020.
The effect of the policy in 2020 can be described as immediate. Supported by a number of favorable policies, the car market in 2021, especially the new energy car market, will also show a positive growth trend.
Major changes may appear in the “new forces”. The new car building forces that survived the “darkest moment” brought us so many surprises in 2020. The top three, with Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng as the first echelon, are trying to lead the future direction of the industry and at the same time time, let the outside world see the infinite possibilities of “China Speed”. His performance in the capital market makes people feel more “surprised”.
In 2020, Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal set new highs in terms of vehicle delivery volume. At present, it seems that the seats in the new forces are basically clear. In 2021, those “new forces” that cannot achieve mass production and large-scale delivery of vehicles will not only be further from Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideals, but will even follow the lead of Byton and Sailin with a high probability. .
2020 is a year worth thinking about. Not only has it affected every brand, but it has also changed almost every aspect of the industry, from logistics, marketing to sales. Fueled by the epidemic, 2020 will become the first year of live streaming in the auto industry. Car companies, dealerships, and car media have all been on the internet. Whether it is live broadcast conferences or live broadcasts, it has long been commonplace; At the same time, online car sales have become more important than ever. In 2021, the growing automotive retail trade will continue to develop and contribute to the entire industry.
In 2020, the most important thing is to tell everyone in this industry: you must respect the law, respect the market, and at the same time have the courage to step out of your comfort zone and respond quickly to changes in the market. After the pains of 2020, what will happen in 2021 has become unprecedentedly unpredictable. But the truth is that in the future, only those autobots and car brands that have strong beliefs and dare to move forward will be able to better survive in the market conditions of the “post-epidemic era.”
Goodbye! 2020!
Hello everyone! 2021!Return to Sohu to see more
