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Friesland, Groningen and Drenthe remain a point of light on the map of the Dutch crown. Around 3,000 patients have been reported in the three provinces together, compared to more than 6,000 in North Brabant (and 27,000 across the Netherlands).
With little contamination and sufficient testing and hospital capacity, the North can play a decisive role in the exit strategy that the Outbreak Management Team (UNWTO) and cabinet are considering this week.
‘Very logical option’
For example, infectious disease modeling professor Sake de Vlas (Erasmus University Rotterdam) calls it a ‘very logical choice’ to look at the northern provinces first: ‘You want to keep infection levels as low as possible with testing and tracking while carefully climbing the block, “says De Vlas, who is also thinking with RIVM about possible exit strategies.
“So it certainly seems useful to me to start in areas where the virus is (possibly by chance) at relatively low levels,” says De Vlas.
Peter Boncz, Professor by Special Appointment of Data Management (VU University) is a member of the same thinking group: “ You can scale the northern provinces first, as long as you can test and trace enough with, say, the app respectful with Privacy. It can only continue if you are sure your health system can handle it. ”
‘A good sign’
Bert Niesters, professor of medical microbiology and head of the UMCG clinical virology section in Groningen, calls the north exit variant an interesting option: “ We haven’t tested an employee at our hospital for a week, which It is a good signal. But before trying something like this, you need to know if we have a good picture of all the potential hot spots in home care, nursing homes, and general practitioners. Only then will I say: this is an interesting option. ”
A regional approach to ease the crown measures has not come out of nowhere. In China, different levels of restriction are applied in various regions, the German expert group IFO also described a scenario this weekend in which regions with sufficient hospital capacity and few infections can be “opened” first. There are risks associated with this course: in areas where few people have been infected, the potential number of new cases is very high, because group immunity appears to be further away.
Watch out
Mayor Sybrand Buma van Leeuwarden, president of the Fryslân Security Region, is cautious about any early relaxation in his region: “If the government wants to start a second phase in certain areas, we will start working on it.” But we are not going to have our own policy here. The risks of the virus are as great here as they are elsewhere. “
RIVM and the Ministry of Health still call him too early to discuss a plan for an exit north. However, cabinet advisers to the Outbreak Management Team already wrote last week that the option of regional measures should be further explored.
According to the OMT, the team of virologists, doctors and epidemiologists advised by the government, there are arguments for and against regional relaxation. A potential problem is, for example, restoration tourism to areas where strict measures are still applied.
More concrete measures this week
OMT and RIVM affiliated teachers and experts are exploring various options to gradually overcome social and economic paralysis. More concrete steps should be put on the table this week. Measures directed at specific branches or age groups can also be considered.
To avoid an uncontrolled outbreak again, difficult conditions are coupled with any relaxation. For example, the scale can only take place if the number of new infections is low. The care system must also have more air.
This is the outbreak management team that Prime Minister Rutte blindly tackles in the fight against the crown.
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