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Original Title: Every Interview with Zhang Yansheng, Principal Investigator at China International Economic Exchange Center: Global Supply Chain Security Is More Important Than Profits and Efficiency in the Post-epidemic Era
On November 27, China’s ninth initial public offering in 2020 hosted by Daily Business Newsthe companyThe summit forum was held in Shenzhen. This summit invited more than 400 prominent listed companies, high-growth companies and securitiesbackgroundmechanismExecutivesAnd the best economists and experts in domestic and foreign investments came together to analyze the endogenous nature of China’s economy from a new development perspective, focusing on China’s economic growth opportunities in the dual cycle, China’s plans in various fields during the “XIV Five-Year Plan” period and other hot topics. Motivation, take the pulse of the high-quality development of the Chinese economy.
2020 is not only the last year of the XIII Five Year Plan, but also a year of planning to harness the momentum to start a new journey of socialist modernization and move towards the goal of the second centenary. Located at the intersection of history and facing important changes not seen in a century, the central government proposes to build a new development pattern that takes the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promote each other.
After the epidemic, the worldindustryChain, value chain,supply chainWhat will happen? GlobalIndustrial chainWhat is the trend of trade union division? China has adhered to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement and is considering joining the Comprehensive and Progressive TransnationalThe Pacific OceanAssociation Agreement (CPTPP), what impact will this have on the “fourteenth five-year plan” to build a new “dual-cycle” development pattern?
With the above questions in mind, the “Daily Business News” reporter (hereinafter referred to as NBD) during the Ninth China Listed Companies SummitChina International Economic Exchange CenterChief Researcher, former academic of the National Development and Reform CommissionCommitteeSecretary General Zhang Yansheng conducted an exclusive interview.
The division of labor
NBD: The epidemic has accelerated the reconstruction of the division of labor in the global industrial chain In your opinion, compared to the past, what changes have occurred in the current industrial chain, value chain and supply chain?
Zhang Yansheng: in the streamInternational economicOn the environment front, I believe that the global industrial chain, the value chain and the supply chain have reached a stage of contraction and regression. In other words, a romantic era has ended and a magical world begins.
The so-called romantic era refers to the comprehensive logistics revolution and the global revolution driven by super globalization and the information technology revolution in recent decades.Supply chain managementThe revolution in China also changed that era.
During this process,companyEspeciallymanufacturing, Formed a newInternational division of laborThe method is called the international division of labor. It means oneproductIt can be completed in different locations around the world and you can also achieve zero inventory and immediate supply. You can see that this era is the golden age of the industry.
After the end of this era, a new one has arrived, the biggest change is that, whether in the United States or Europe, Japan or China, the most talked about topic is the security of the supply chain.
From this perspective, we say that the most significant change in the future of the three global chains is: security is more important than anything for a long time.The security of the supply chain, the industrial chain and the value chain is even better thanprofit、 Efficiency is more important, because once interrupted, there will be nothing.
NBD: You just mentioned the safety of the industrial chain, from the perspective of the division of labor, what trends do you think have emerged?
Zhang Yansheng: The most likely change is the international triangle division of labor.
At present, East Asia mainly provides manufacturing capacity andworkIn the future, the East Asian production network may undergo profound changes. Due to this new corona epidemic, China is the first to stabilize, followed by Japan and South Korea, and then ASEAN. For East Asia, there may be a global demand shift to the east in the next step,supplyTo the east, service to the east, innovation to the east, capital to the east andcoinEastward shift of financial cooperation.
As the economy moves east, once the epidemic has passed, production methods and production networks in East Asia may undergo different changes than in the past. In the past, East Asia primarily providedworkforce, Providing manufacturing capabilities, and now beginning to provide services and innovation, and even begin to provide capital and financial and monetary cooperation. This is a typical change in the division of labor.
Superglobalization is slowing
NBD: Recently, the topic of RCEP is very hot. After China joined RCEP, it will consider joining CPTPP. Can you analyze the logic behind this?
Zhang Yansheng: RCEP is the 10 + 5 free trade area in the Asia-Pacific region signed by the 10 ASEAN + countries China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. This free trade area will be the largest free trade zone in the world.
China also made it clear that it will consider joining the CPTPP with a positive attitude. This sends an important message to the world: China is not only willing to accept the existing high-standard rules of the CPTPP, but will also be determined to confront higher international rules and regulations and standards. China is committed to promotingRegional economic integrationIt is not exclusive, but pays more attention to mutually beneficial cooperation and mutually beneficial development.
NBD: China is about to enter the period of the “14th Five Year Plan”. In the new period, what industries and fields will become popular?
Zhang Yansheng: Some new things that we talk about today, like network security, like smart manufacturing, are no longer a continuation of the last 40 years, but will be a new beginning and a new beginning for the next 30 years. .
From this perspective, after entering the “XIV Five-Year Plan”, in this new stage, superglobalization is being reduced, but at the same time, it is also promoting the globalization of digital globalization, the globalization of services, the globalization of innovation. and cultural exchanges. This is a new situation that we will face in the next 30 years.
NBD: At present, we have proposed a new “double cycle” development pattern. During the period of the “XIV Five Year Plan”, what changes will this bring to China’s economic environment?
Zhang Yansheng: During the period of the “XIV Five-Year Plan”, we can see two lines: one line is based on the theme of high-quality development, and the fundamental purpose is to meet the growing needs of people for a better life. Promoting the implementation of new development concepts, that is, the next step of innovation, coordination, ecology, openness and sharing, will lead to the “14th Five-Year Plan” and a longer period of economic, technological andIndustrial developmentA main line of
There is also a main line, which is still based on the theme of high-quality development, which involves demand, supply, input, production, distribution, circulation, consumption and future macroeconomic cycles, that is, to form a strong domestic market and build a new The development pattern for our network security and smart manufacturing should create not only large-scale application scenarios, but also higher quality and new requirements.
(Source: Daily Economic News)
(Responsible editor: DF522)
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