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Original title: European and US epidemic counterattacks to improve gold hedging attributes, Trump’s chances of reelection have risen sharply, and gold prices are also facing technical pressure.
On Monday (November 2) during the Asian market, spot gold rose slightly to $ 1,882.24 an ounce, an increase of approximately 0.18%. Due to the rapid increase in the number of new corona infections in Europe and the United States, many European countries even adopted new lockdown measures. The market has panicked and the hedging properties of gold have been reflected. The market trend changes and it is optimistic that Trump will be re-elected as president of the United States. If Trump is elected president of the United States, the scale of the fiscal stimulus may be reduced, which will increase the dollar and put pressure on gold. Technology shows that spot gold is on a volatile downtrend and it is difficult to keep rising under short-term suppression.
The number of new cases in Europe and the United States has increased, and at least 12 countries in Europe have issued closure orders.
After Germany and France announced the closure of the entire territory last week, other European countries have followed up. The WHO said last Sunday that there were more than 45.42 million confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide. , and the number of new cases in a single day set a new record. The severity of the epidemic even far exceeded that of the first wave, which to some extent provided a safe haven in demand for gold and the US dollar.
In response to the fierce second wave of the epidemic, at least 12 European countries have issued blocking orders.
According to incomplete statistics, at least twelve European countries, including Germany, France, Ireland, Italy, Spain, the Czech Republic, Belgium, the United Kingdom (England), Austria, Greece, the Netherlands and Poland, have announced “blockade” orders to contain the epidemic. .
With the rise of new wreath boxes in Europe, France is requiring people to stay home except for essential activities last Friday, and Germany is closing bars, restaurants and theaters from November 2 until the end of the month.
On Sunday, British Prime Minister Johnson announced that England will implement partial lockdown measures from November 5 and that non-essential shops and places will have to be closed. The lockdown measures will last up to four weeks and schools in England will remain open until early December.
Austrian Chancellor Kurz announced that Austria will implement the second round of lockdown measures starting Tuesday and that restaurants will only allow take-out services. A curfew will be imposed from 8:00 p.m. to 6:00 a.m.
Today, the United States is also facing the problem of increasing cases, and the number of new cases in a single day has set a new record.
European and American epidemics fought back violently, intensifying market anxiety, and the market welcomed safe-haven gold properties.
Trump’s re-election probability increases
James Steel, HSBC’s chief precious metals analyst, said the entire precious metals market will experience huge volatility ahead of the US elections. Market risk aversion boosted the US dollar and suppressed gold and silver, but the decline in gold and silver prices is unlikely to go further.
Judging by recent polls, Republican Trump’s support rate has risen slightly. Last week’s statistics were 44.5%, and the current support rate was 45.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; Democratic candidate Biden’s support rate remained at 49.9%, the support gap between the two leading candidates is narrowing.
Sodick, director of the British gaming company GVC Holdings, estimates that the total global bet on the next US presidential candidate has exceeded $ 1 billion, not just double the amount in 2016, but even topping all events. sports cars, and is expected to become the largest market in history.
Sodick noted that the casino atmosphere this week has changed dramatically, with 70% of the bets on Trump. Last time a large group of players won, who followed their instincts and instincts to place bets.
The market previously predicted that Biden will be elected president of the United States. If Biden is elected, he could introduce a larger-scale fiscal stimulus, which is bad for the US dollar and bullish for gold. But now the wind has turned, the market speculates that the probability of Trump’s victory has risen a lot and the price of gold has been under pressure.
technical analysis:Cash goldIt is currently a volatile pattern to the downside, facing pressure of $ 1895 per ounce in the near term.
From the general trend,
Cash gold
It is currently trading within the descending range of shocks.
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Cash gold
SinceCash goldLooking at the 4 hour chart,Cash goldCurrently operating in the middle of the shock range. Although it is increasing in the short term, it faces pressure of $ 1895 per ounce.
why
Cash gold
Previously, it was still running above $ 1895 / ounce and was supported by this point many times. After falling below support at this position last Wednesday, support turned into pressure. Therefore, if the price of gold continues to rise, it will face $ 1895 / ounce again. Pressure point.
Usually,
Cash gold
The overall picture is a downward volatile pattern, and it is difficult to keep rising any time soon. You also need to pay attention to the US general elections and US economic stimulus.
11:43 Beijing time,
Cash gold
Quoted at US $ 1,882.24 / oz
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Editor in Charge: Guo Jian
